Blogs
Contract Retrospective: Vernon Wells' December 2006 Extension for 7 years, $126M, 2008-2014
by devil_fingers
on Jul 2, 2009 3:15 AM PDT
in Sabermetrics
12 comments
|
Vernon Wells and the late Ted Rogers (owner of the Blue Jays) at the press conference announcing Wells' 7-year, $126 million extension. |
It is easy to criticize a bad contract after it's gone bad. And I would guess there are few, if any people, who think that Vernon Well's 7-year, $126M contract signed in December 2006 and covering 2008-2014 has been anything but bad. It probably suffices to say that, as of this writing, in 2009 Vernon Wells is the 2nd least valuable player in all of baseball, being 1.4 Wins Below Replacement (-1.4 WAR, Brian Giles is the worst at -1.6), and the worst in the American League. And this is only the second year of the deal. In the first year, 2008, Wells was at 1.2 WAR according to FanGraphs. Sure, he was 2.0 WAR in 2008 according to Rally's WAR calculations, but it doesn't take much baseball knowledge to realize that a 2.0 WAR player (about league average) doesn't come close to cutting it, either.
But again, it isn't that interesting to criticize a contract in hindsight. Any contract can turn out better or worse than it seemed at the time. The question that interests me (and hopefully you, too) is whether a contract made sense at the time it was signed. Hence the Contract Retrospective.
12 comments
| 1 recs
|
Wainwright Dominates the Giants
by vivaelpujols
on Jul 1, 2009 11:51 PM PDT
in PITCHf/x
9 comments
2 days ago, Tim Lincecum pitched a complete game shutout against the Cardinals. I took a detailed look at his start, and he was absolutely dominant. Well last night, Adam Wainwright got revenge. He didn't get a win as the Cards offense was anemic again (although Rasmus hit a walkoff homer, so I'm not complaining), but his final line against the Giants was a thing of beauty: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 0 HR, 12 K. He also threw 122 pitches and 82 strikes, leading to a whopping 67% K rate.
In similar fashion to my post about Lincecum, I'm gonna look at how Waino was able to be so good last night. I know, I know, I'm being repetitive, but I am really liking this Pitchfx stuff. I'll try to mix it up soon, and off course if anyone has any requests for articles about Pitchfx or whatever, you can email me at nicks0817@aim.com. For now though, you can enjoy this summary of Wainwright's great start.
More gifs, graphs and words after the jump.
9 comments | 1 recs
News: Biomechanics Lab Status Update (and Thank Yous)
by Kyle Boddy
on Jul 1, 2009 11:11 PM PDT
in News
3 comments
For readers unaware, I've been planning on building a biomechanics lab in the Seattle, WA area for some time now. The steps to get there have included purchasing a high-speed video camera, reading a ton of books on biomechanics/anatomy/geometry/physics, and finding a software package that can digitize the video to give me numbers that I can work with.
I'm happy to say that I'm armed with my high-speed camera (Casio Exilim EX-FH20), I've read tons of source material published by ASMI doctors and various professors in the aforementioned subjects, and with the gracious help of blog reader gorilla_baller, I've found a software package that is affordable and will do all the complex math (Direct Linear Transformation, for those interested) to build 3D models of ballistic activity.
Driveline Baseball, Inc. has been founded with my business partner Jacob Staff, and we've been in talks with various wholesalers about designing training products for our clients.
While we have so far to go, it's nice to look back and see how much groundwork has been laid. It seems like just a month ago that I put this blog up on WordPress with a few of my initial articles - I was thrilled to get 20 hits a day from people who were genuinely interested in pitching mechanics and injuries. Now, with the help of people like Tyler Bleszinski (better known as Blez), I'm sharing this blog with you all on the SB Nation platform and getting over 500 unique hits a day. Of course, it's not all my work - without the help of my former and current writers authoring great work when I'm too lazy (or too dense to figure out the PITCHf/x stuff), this blog would have died months ago.
Of course, the readers who bombard me with questions and requests and who come here daily to see if their pitcher is being written about - invariably disappointed that I chose to write about Chris Perez rather than someone notable - deserve most of the credit. Without the traffic I get here, I'd feel that the market I'm trying to break into really is worthless - but knowing that so many people out there are interested in this type of research does fuel my desire to learn and make something happen.
And last, but not least, I have to thank Trip Somers (NoNameOnCard) for late-night discussions about esoteric issues like forward trunk tilt, trunk flexion, horizontal shoulder abduction, and countless stories from his labrum rehab. Without him, my wife would be even more inundated by talks about anatomy and biomechanical jargon.
Here's to looking forward!
3 comments | 0 recs
Is Randy Johnson Fastball's Location Leading to an Increase in Home Runs?
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)
on Jul 1, 2009 3:00 AM PDT
in PITCHf/x
12 comments
A reader requested I look at Randy Johnson of the San Fransico Giants and specifically why he is "leaving his not-so-dominating fastball in the middle of the zone, which I think is why his ERA, XBH and HR rates have exploded." First lets look at his numbers that exploded and then see if his fastball is further up in the zone.
Exploding Numbers
Here are Randy's 2008 numbers vs his numbers so far in 2009:
| Year | ERA | FIPS | xFIPS | HR/9 | FA Velocity |
| 2008 | 3.91 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 1.17 | 90.1 |
| 2009 | 4.68 | 4.3 | 3.57 | 2.42 | 90.2 |
Randy's ERA is about 70 points higher and his FIPS is 54 points. Looking at xFIPS, (which looks at fly balls instead of home runs) it shows that Randy is having a better year in 2009 compared to 2008. Randy is definitely giving up more home runs this year and lets see if it is because of his fastball placement.
12 comments
| 0 recs
|
Lincecum Dominates the Cardinals
by vivaelpujols
on Jun 30, 2009 8:02 AM PDT
in PITCHf/x
37 comments
Since the Cardinals have acquired DeRosa, they are 0-2 and have scored exactly 2 runs. Kyle B. 1, Viva 0 (then again, Chris Perez almost killed a guy in his debut with the Indians). Of course, having to face Tim Lincecum in 50% of those games certainly limits your ability to score many runs.
Yesterday, the aforementioned pitcher absolutely carved up the Cards lineup. His final line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 95 pitches, 60 strikes. That brought his season FIP to a Pedro-esque 2.00. He has already been worth 4.8 WAR, which is worth roughly 21.5 million on the free agent market... in a half a season. So far in his major league career, he has been worth 15.5 WAR in a little more than two seasons. He throws 195 MPH, his curveball has 50 inches of break, and he once struck out Matt Weiters on 2 pitches.
I could spend all day writing about how good Lincecum is, but I did want to take a look at his start against the Cards yesterday. That of course means lots of graphs after the jump.
37 comments | 2 recs
The Incredible Significance of Ryan Langerhans: A Brief Reflection
by devil_fingers
on Jun 30, 2009 6:00 AM PDT
in Trade Analysis
9 comments
As you've heard by now (since it happened two days ago), the Greatest Trade in the History of the Blogosphere has gone down: Ryan Langerhans, down on the farm for the Nationals AAA affiliate, was traded for classic replacement-level scrub Michael Morse. There are many angles here -- why every team in the league let Langherans pass through waivers this past offseason, why the Nationals felt they needed Mike Morse, or felt like they needed to get rid of Langerhans only to replace him with an eerily similar player at the cost of a prospect with some upside. I could go on and on as part of what Lookout Landing calls the "Insufferable blogosphere. We love talking about players like this more than I imagine you love reading about them. I apologize in advance." So do I. Elsewhere I've been (rightly) mocked for my offseason ranting Langerhans (as well as Russell Branyan -- boy, I sure was wrong about that guy, wasn't I!). But beyond the particulars of the trade, I'd like to offer a few short reflections on what the trade "means."
The Man gets married in style.
|
'cause it's so deep...
9 comments
| 0 recs
|
A Trade To Be Fully Analyzed Later: Mark DeRosa, Chris Perez, and Mr. X
by devil_fingers
on Jun 28, 2009 11:43 AM PDT
in Trade Analysis
1 comment
Well, the first in-season shot in the race for the Central has been made. And by "Central" I mean "AL Central," and by "race" I mean "the race between Cleveland and Kansas City's front offices to realize that yes, they're out of it and should be getting rid veterans who aren't going to be around to see the next potential shot at contention." This may also effect the NL Central. DeRosa goes to the Cardinals for Perez and a PTBNL... According to the SI blurb, the "player to be named later story" is considered by Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro to be a major part of the deal, so I guess this analysis really won't be complete until I come back in a few months with an analysis of either Skip Schumaker or Colby Rasmus (put down the pitchforks, Cardinals fans, I'm joking). Until then, here are some numbers on the trade so far.
1 comment
| 0 recs
|
A Mechanical Look at Chris Perez
by Kyle Boddy
on Jun 27, 2009 11:50 PM PDT
in Pitching Mechanics
3 comments
(Yes, that is really Chris Perez pitching in the image above.)
The SB Nation blogosphere is rife with stories about the first big MLB "deadline trade" in 2009.
- Let's Go Tribe: Mark DeRosa has been traded to St. Louis
- Viva El Birdos: Cardinals acquire Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez, PTBNL
- Bleed Cubbie Blue: Cardinals Acquire Mark DeRosa
JESUS GOD WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO NOW
Here at Driveline Mechanics, we'll be running three stories about the trade - Jeff Zimmerman has already taken a quick PITCHf/x look at Chris Perez, while devil_fingers will be looking at the trade from a "sabermetric" approach.
Since this is as good a time as any to update my own site (boy, it's been awhile), I'll be taking a look at Chris Perez from a mechanical standpoint. First, as an Indians fan, I have to say that I'm enthused with the trade - while flipping Mark DeRosa means that Mark Shapiro has given up on the 2009 season, that was a reality that was worth embracing to get a guy with big-league stuff, if not big-league control. Oh, and a PTBNL, too! A friend of mine who posts on another sports forum made this interesting (and humorous, if you're not a Cubs fan) comment:
...if you combine this year's deal with last year's deadline trade, Shapiro has essentially swapped five months of a versatile .270/.340/.455 rental player in exchange for Carlos Santana, Chris Perez, Jonathan Meloan, and a fourth player. In comparison, Jim Hendry dealt six months of that same player for two old, generic relief prospects and a young one with poor control.
Ba-zing!
Less talk, more video after the break...
3 comments
| 0 recs
|
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
New FanPost
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
![Awesomest. BobbleHead. Ever, for Shin-Soo Choo, of all people. Gotta hand it to Kyle's boys on this one. [H/t: Deadspin]. At least he's on my Ball on a Budget team.](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/55300/20090613_choo_small.jpg)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
