Nick Blackburn was a 34th round draft pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2000, then redrafted in the 29th round and signed in 2001 by the Minnesota Twins. Blackburn had an unimpressive debut in rookie ball and then struggled at Low-A Quad Cities in 2003, but started to put things together in 2004, leading to a promotion to High-A Fort Myers. Always a command-and-control specialist, in 2005 Blackburn's control got even better as he blew through High-A all the way to AAA Rochester, posting bb9 rates under 2 at every stop.

Blackburn would go back to AA in 2006, posting an unimpressive 4.42 ERA with a 2.52 bb9, his highest walk rate since rookie ball. The Twins, loaded with pitching prospects, thought of Blackburn as nothing more than an organizational arm due to his low strikeout rate and high hit rates.

Everything would change in 2007...

Blackburn took a huge step forward in 2007 - he quickly found himself back in AAA where he posted a ridiculous bb9 of 0.98 and hr9 of 0.57 over 110.2 innings. Combined with a low hit rate, it would lead to a sub-1 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA, good enough for a cup of coffee at the MLB level.

He broke camp with the big league club in 2008, made possible due to Liriano's lingering injury concerns and Garza's trade to the Rays. Blackburn is currently 1-1 in five games with 15 strikeouts and 4 walks over 31.1 innings pitched, good for a 3.45 ERA. He has recently caught favor with many Twins fans for his exceptional control, his similarity to Carlos Silva, and the story of the forgotten pitcher making a splash at the big league level.

Pitch f/x Analysis

We have a limited data set from 2007 for Blackburn's appearances (I have not yet figured out how to download and analyze data from 2008; this is something I'm diligently working on):

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	92.03	-5.83	9.95	27	20	7	10	11	6	0	1	1
Curveball	76.08	5.84	-3.17	10	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Splitter	88.34	2.44	7.65	25	18	6	13	13	10	0	0	0

Let's compare this to Carlos Silva:

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Sinker	91.89	-8.08	8.03	315	159	39	222	145	49	6	3	7
Slider	83.84	3.76	4.84	43	26	11	13	15	5	2	0	1
Change	81.77	-6.54	2.96	83	45	26	41	47	13	8	1	3

Blackburn has a bit better velocity and different secondary pitches, but Silva has significantly better lateral movement on his fastball. Though it's a small sample size, you can see that both pitchers rely on the defense, as neither of them get many swinging strikes on their primary offerings. I would be concerned that Blackburn has no real weapons against lefties, as his splitter has little lateral movement in on a lefty and stays up in the zone. His curveball is more of a slurve, as it breaks in towards lefties, and this can be dangerous; right-handed pitchers who throw breaking balls down and in on lefties typically get shelled hard since the ball is easier to pick up.

Of course, Blackburn spots his pitches very well, as evidenced by his excellent bb9 rates. Like his teammate Kevin Slowey, he'll have to be near-perfect with location, as he lacks the power stuff to strike out big league hitters.

Pitching Mechanics

The first thing that jumped out at me in this image was that Blackburn is painfully slow to the plate. After analyzing it further, my suspicions were confirmed: He takes 24-25 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Blackburn is also a "tall and fall" pitcher as he gathers himself over his balance point and then starts the hips forward. I don't like that approach, as you can see on my general Pitching page, I prefer that pitchers "drift" through the balance point and get their center of mass moving forward as they reach maximal leg lift. Tall and fall mechanics limit the momentum pitchers build into footplant, which can increase the strain on the arm and possibly limit the velocity. That being said, Blackburn repeats his mechanics very well, which is a major point in his favor. Scouts prefer wildly different things regarding arm action, momentum, tempo, and stuff, but if the pitcher flawlessly repeats his mechanics, that can iron out small quirks in a delivery.

Here's a better look at his "tall and fall" approach:

It takes him forever to get his body moving to the target. Just look at his head position relative to the McDonalds sign and you can see for yourself. Compare this to a pitcher like David Price:

Source: pitchingclips.com

You can see the differences right away - Price is aggressive with his lower body, while Blackburn is extremely passive. Obviously, I prefer Price's lower body action to Blackburn's.

Arm Action / Tempo

Blackburn breaks his hands a bit differently than most pitchers - he leaves his glove arm up while he drops his pitching arm down. I like this quite a bit, though I can't say why - it seems very efficient and easy to repeat, rather than breaking the hands together in a wingspan-type motion. The signature pitcher from RPM Pitching uses a very similar hand break to this, which is a ringing endorsement in my mind. Blackburn takes his arm back in a smooth pendulum swing but does take the arm laterally behind the body in reverse rotation. Blackburn also closes off his stride to some degree, which will limit the ability of his hips to clear and rotate maximally. That flaw is limiting his velocity, since the hips have width and require a little more room to fully rotate. (As a side note, pitchers are often told to stride straight to the target - this is wrong. If you picture a clock with 12 being home plate and 6 being second base, the pitchers stride foot should land somewhere around 11:30-11:45.)

Take look at Blackburn's foot at the point of external rotation compared to James Shields:

Compare Blackburn's right foot with Shields' right foot - Shields is turning it over more as his stride leg opens further. If you look at their backside hips, you will also see that Shields is further rotated.

I've already talked about Blackburn's tempo, which I grade as Poor. His arm action, however, is Very Good.

Ball Release / Followthrough

Blackburn's pitching arm position at footstrike is good - it is not late, and he appears to be showing the ball to third base, rather than 2b/CF. He does a decent job of pointing the PAS shoulder at the target and his arm does decelerate across his body fairly well. However, I think he might be actively braking his arm, which would be very bad. Here's what I mean:

See what I mean? His arm doesn't follow all the way through. I am very suspect of this, but since this pitch is a curveball with significantly lower velocity than his fastball, I don't want to make any serious judgment right now on this phase of his delivery. His ball release is Average and I rate his followthrough as Incomplete, shading to the side of Bad.

Conclusion

I'd prefer that Blackburn "got it going" a little faster and scrapped his "tall and fall" mechanics, but the truth is that pitchers who have low walk rates like he does are very rare. Any tinkering with their mechanics will lead to inconsistencies and scrap their primary weapon: Command. As a result, I highly doubt the Twins will try and change his tempo into footplant. However, Blackburn can change his followthrough, which looks awfully bad from the single clip I have. Actively braking your arm will lead to serious shoulder problems very quickly and can limit velocity as the pitcher may start slowing down his arm speed in anticipation of stopping his arm in the followthrough phase.