Jay Bruce went 3-for-3, 2 singles, 1 double, 3 RBI, 1 stolen base, and a pair of walks in his MLB debut. Welcome to the big leagues, kid. (Reds management: What took you so long?)

It is with great pleasure that we at Driveline Mechanics announce the start of hitting mechanics analysis by using video and statistical projections. Though we do not as of yet have a Hitting page up (which will be like our Pitching page), I figured loyal Reds' fans couldn't wait for me to do a summary of rotational hitting mechanics before lauding praise on their new franchise player.

Without further ado, let's get to it!

Statistical Analysis of Jay Bruce - Center Fielder

Jay Bruce, at the ripe old age of 20, posted these statistics in 50 games and 187 at-bats in the International League (AAA):

.305/.358/.567 - 11 HR, 15 BB, 48 SO, 2-for-4 SB

That is pretty damn impressive. People worried about his strikeout-to-walk ratio, though, and in 2008 he did this over 49 games and 184 at-bats:

.364/.393/.630 - 10 HR, 12 BB, 45 SO, 8-for-9 SB

So he didn't increase his walk rate. I ask you this: So what? Jay Bruce did not need to "learn" to walk in the minors, because he was simply dominating the pitchers. His strikeout rate is not all that concerning, as more astute readers of this blog will note that hitters such as his teammate Adam Dunn strike out quite a bit yet remain very valuable players. In fact, you want players with "young guy tools," such as hitting for average and stealing bases, as hitters with premature "old guy tools," such as high isolated OBPs and selective power tend to age less gracefully. Even if you subtract 60 points of batting average from Jay Bruce's 2008 line, he is almost exactly the same player as he was in 2007: Extremely productive and ready for the big show.

Baseball Prospectus pegs Jay Bruce's value (MORP) at $11,175,000 for 2008 based on a projected line of .270/.336/.513 and below-average defense in CF. That sounds about right, but I'd take the over on his batting average.

Detractors point to his less than stellar bb/k rate, but as I said before, Jay Bruce never had to learn to walk. He just kept hitting, and hitting. However, in the majors, the pitchers are quite a bit better, and they will learn to adapt to his style. They will start exploiting what small holes they can find in his swing, and his batting average will drop, as will his isolated-power rates. However, it is naive to think that Bruce can't adjust himself - after all, he blew through three levels at age 20 in the minor leagues. Bruce will then start to walk more, hit for a bit more power, and his batting average will level off as he develops a better batting eye. And even if he doesn't, he'll still be a top-flight center fielder as opposed to one of the game's best.

In short, nothing about Jay Bruce worries me from a statistical standpoint, nor should it worry you.

The Five Tools of Hitting - Jay Bruce

Position players are very rarely called "five-tool players." That means that they are above-average at the following things:

• Hitting for average.


• Hitting for power.


• Speed.


• Arm strength.


• Fielding/range.

Jay Bruce is a five-tool player - make no mistake about it. He can hit for average, he can hit for power, he can steal a base, he has a plus arm, and he profiles to be an average center fielder in the major leagues over time. It's important to note that even if Bruce wouldn't be an average center fielder, that he may very well still be a five-tool player since he would very likely be a plus right fielder. For what it's worth, I like his chances to stick in center field.

Video Analysis / Hitting Mechanics of Jay Bruce

Now here's the good stuff. There are four main phases to the major-league swing. They are:

• Back leg load: The hitter makes an initial negative movement back and coils his body.


• Back leg push: The hitter pushes off the back leg and begins forward movement, creating linear momentum.


• Front leg block: The hitter makes a strong front leg block and begins to convert linear momentum into rotational power through the kinetic link.


• Front leg push: The hitter pushes off the front leg right before contact to add power to the swing as he uncocks the wrists.

The four phases of the swing have many other subparts to them, but these are the main components of the rotational swing. A hitter's primary source of power is the ground, which is why the phases all revolve around the lower half of the body.

Here's my voiceover for Jay Bruce's swing to help further explain the four phases of hitting and how it relates to him: