Oliver Perez

#46 / Pitcher / New York Mets

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 15, 1981

Oliver Perez has been around the majors so long that it's easy to forget that he is still a relatively young man. The Culiacan, Mexico native made his big league debut all the way back in 2002 as a 20 year-old for the San Diego Padres, and enters free agency as a rare commodity: a lefty starter with a few years to go before his 30th birthday.

With the other young southpaw on the market, C.C. Sabathia, becoming Yankee property, attention now turns to the second tier of free agent starters which Perez is a part of. Perez's agent, Scott Boras, has been in full-fledged spin mode with the 27 year-old, going so far as to liken him to a young Sandy Koufax. While that comparison is, um, interesting, this seems like a good time so separate hyperbole from fact. Let's take a stab at calculating Perez's fair market value.

The method used here is pretty much the same one used in evaluating the Yankees' decision to not offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte, with one alteration. As an astute reader, hazel, pointed out, The $5.5 million per Win Above Replacement (WAR) figure I used looks a little high, given the way that the free agent market has played out. That figure assumed a 10% inflation is player salary, which had been the norm over the past few offseasons. However, that inflation has not come to fruition. To adjust for this, I'm going to use last offseason's rate of $5 million per WAR.

In 2009, Marcel projects Perez to throw 175 innings with a 4.52 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). FIP is a better barometer of pitching skill than ERA, as it evaluates hurlers based on their strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.

A replacement level starter would post a 5.50 FIP. However, a replacement level starter would be unlikely to throw 175 innings due to his ineffectiveness, so we'll cap his innings total at 150 innings. The additional 25 innings will be given to a replacement level reliever (4.50 FIP). Using these parameters, we can evaluate Perez's value relative to a replacement level starter:

Perez

4.52 FIP/9 = .502 X 175 (projected innings total) = 87.9 runs allowed

Replacement Level Starter

RL starter 5.50 FIP/9 = .611 X 150 = 91.7 runs allowed

RL Reliever 4.50 FIP/9= .528 X 25 = 12.5 runs allowed

Total: 104.2 runs allowed

Subtracting the replacement level 104.2 from Perez's 87.9, we find that Perez projects to be 16.3 runs above replacement. One win is considered about 10 runs, so Perez will be worth about 1.6 Wins Above Replacement if he meets his Marcel projection. Using the guideline that a free agent WAR is valued at about $5 million, Perez's fair market value comes in at $8.15 million per season. Assuming Perez maintains a similar level of performance over the next few seasons, here's what a long-term, market value deal would look like:

3 Years/ $24.45M

4 Years/ $32.6M

5 Years/ $40.75M

The amount could actually be a little less, as some feel that a 10% discount is given by the player in exchange for long-term financial security. That would lower the values to 3/$22M, 4/$29.3M and 5/$36.7M.

Boras has apparently floated the idea of a five-year, $70M deal for Perez, but it would take a team either A.) desperate to land a starter after missing out on Sabtahia, Lowe, Burnett et al or B.) extremely optimistic about Perez's chances of improvement in the future to offer such a contract. To be worth that $14M a year, Perez would have to post 2.8 WAR, well above his current projection. Maybe Perez does make those necessary strides, but currently, the numbers just don't add up.

A Journalism student at Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, Fan Graphs and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David via email at golebie1029@duq.edu or judidave87@msn.com