Hot Stove Analysis: Kerry Wood (Cleveland Indians)
by Kyle Boddy on Dec 14, 2008 1:02 AM PST
in Sabermetrics
18 comments
Kerry Wood will be forever linked to Mark Prior in the department of "Oh, what could have been" for the Chicago Cubs. People will remember him for his short stretch of dominance, including this particularly sick performance against the Astros in 1998. However, it is impossible to have a discussion about Kerry Wood without mentioning the litany of arm injuries he's experienced over the years.
Finally healthy in 2008, he turned in a great year:
His advanced stats proved that his ERA and WHIP were no fluke, either - his FIP was 2.32 while his xFIP was 3.12. He did have a low amount of HR/FB coming in at 4.6%, so we should expect that to regress in 2009 somewhat - but on the same hand, the Cubs defense was pretty poor behind him.
Despite Kerry Wood's great stats, he only posted a 0.82 WPA and 1.17 WPA/LI on the season. Take a look at this list - everyone on it (and more) contributed more meaningfully to their respective team's success than Kerry Wood. The predictive value of WPA is debatable, but it's interesting to note that he didn't rack up the WPA - mainly due to his high -WPA score.
Anyway, there is little doubt that Kerry Wood is a good reliever - but is he worth a 2 year, $20.5 million contract with a vesting option for a third year? Fangraphs doesn't think so.
My evaluation yesterday suggested Kerry Wood is a +1.4 win player for 2009, factoring in his run prevention skills as well as the leverage of the innings he will pitch in a new, and offensively superior, league. This would place his fair market value in the vicinity of $6-8 mil. A 2-yr deal in this regard should have been worth $14 mil. It is now being reported that his deal with the Indians is closer to 2-yr/$20 mil, meaning the Indians will be paying him over $7 mil/win relative to the average annual value. Wood will provide stability at the position given the revolving closers door for the Indians this past season, but he will have to vastly outdo his projection to merit being paid that much per win. Not even the overvalued K-Rod is receiving that much per win with his new deal.
(emphasis mine)
Fangraphs is discounting the very real possibility that Kerry Wood will suffer a major injury while on the Indians' payroll, turning this deal completely sideways. However, it's worth noting that even if he doesn't get hurt, he'll have to outperform the predictions that Fangraphs made for him to simply justify his signing!
Beyond the Box Score's devil_fingers did this impromptu analysis of the deal:
I just did a bit of work on this comparing Farnsworth horrific contract to the Wood’s contract, so let me jump in here and see what you think.Tango recently has been discussing reliever value. He says that in projecting market value with pLI, use the pLI of the reliever’s expected role averaged with 1. So for a closer, you get 1.5 for Wood as closer. I’ll use Marcels here.
Replacement level for relievers is 1.07 x league ERA (4.3)
Marcel projects a 3.76 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 61 innings.
ERA-RAR = 5.70, times 1.5 pLI = 8.55
FIP-RAR = 6.94, times 1.5 pLI = 10.41Using 10 runs = 1 win for simplicity
Market value = (1.04 times 4.84) + .4 replacment salary = $5.43M = $4.6M overpayment for year 1.
Simply put, there's not much to like here from a sabermetric viewpoint. The fans at Let's Go Tribe seem to love this deal, which I simply cannot understand. Remember that Rafael Betancourt in 2007 posted this line:
79.1 IP, 80 K, 9 BB, 4 HR - good for a 1.47 ERA and 0.756 WHIP.
That's way better than Kerry Wood circa 2008, isn't it? Betancourt followed it up with this wonderful performance in 2008:
It is commonly accepted that reliever performance is highly variable, and while the best relievers in the game are somewhat of an exception, the change above should scare anyone away from signing a reliever to a $20.5m contract over 2 years.
However, if that was the only analysis we did about Kerry Wood, we wouldn't be Driveline Mechanics, now would we? The truth is that the Indians' should be worried not only about whether or not he can outperform expectations to simply justify his salary, but whether or not he will even pitch two full years...
Since I'm at work and I don't particularly want to reinvent the wheel, I'll simply refer you to Chris O'Leary's work on Kerry Wood.
This is Kerry Wood's "Inverted L":
Simply put, it creates a timing problem where the pitching arm does not get vertical before the shoulders start to turn. In Kerry Wood's case, he doesn't even get the pitching arm through the horizontal plane of his shoulders before he starts to accelerate the baseball! This will cause his pitching arm to "lay back" in shoulder external rotation especially violently, unnecessarily stressing his shoulder and elbow.
Furthermore, Kerry Wood's reliance on a supinated slider will continue to damage his elbow. When you release a pitch with a supinated release (often referred to as "pulling" the pitch across your body or "turning the doorknob"), you will slam the olecrenon process into its fossa, which irritates the hyaline cartilage. In turn, the pitcher will experience elbow soreness and inflammation, natural responses to the damage. Additionally, this can cause lengthening of the ulna bone and loss of flexion about the elbow. (If you know any ex-professional pitchers who relied on a slider, ask them to touch their pitching arm hand to their pitching arm shoulder. Most of them can't.)
Therefore, I very highly doubt two things:
- That Kerry Wood, if perfectly healthy, will justify his salary.
- That Kerry Wood will be perfectly healthy for 2 years.
Jay from Let's Go Tribe said this to me as a rebuttal to my dislike for this contract:
The onus is on the critic of a signing to explain how the team might better use those funds. You haven’t, and my bet is that you can’t.
This is illogical thinking. Just because the Indians had $10m to spend does not mean they should spend it on a highly risky reliever. If there is nothing to buy in the market, then they should not spend the money. By spending money without regard for what you purchase and when you purchase it, you become the Yankees - without all the money that comes along with operating the franchise in New York. No small or mid-market team can act that ineffficiently and get away with it, and the normally intelligent Cleveland Indians' front office should know this.
And if they were so hellbent on spending money - what's so wrong with Rafael Furcal?
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Agreed
Kyle,
I consider the Cleveland Indians to be among the most well-run franchises in the game, but it’s pretty difficult to justify the terms of this signing.
For the most part, I have seen two ways of evaluating reliever performance, relative to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Leverage:
One uses a 4.50 FIP baseline for replacement level relievers, and employs a 1.5 Leverage Index (LI accounts for the leverage of the situation; this serves to give more weight to a high-leverage reliever)
Using these guidelines…
RL Reliever: 4.50 FIP/9 = .5 X 61 = 30.5 runs allowed
Wood: 3.58 FIP/9 = .3977 X 61 = 24.3 runs
30.5- 24.3 = 6.2 runs (1.5 LI) = 9.3 runs above replacement, or .93 WAR
.93 WAR ($5 mil) = $4.65M/ year
Personally, I’m starting to think that a 4.50 FIP is too low for a replacement level reliever. Other people use a 4.75 FIP, while also using a 1.8 LI (the average LI for a closer). Using these parameters…
RL Reliever: 4.75 FIP/9 = .5277 X 61 = 32.2 runs allowed
Wood: 24.3 runs allowed
32.2- 24.3 = 7.9 runs (1.8 LI) = 14.22 runs above replacement, or 1.4 WAR
1.4 WAR ($5 mil) = $7M/ year
So, if Wood takes the ball a projected 122 innings over the next two seasons, he projects to be worth about $14 million. And that’s without taking into account his lengthy injury history.
I’m sort of confused as to why the Indians would choose to spend that much on one reliever. While last year’s pen was a disaster, they had a productive, low cost bullpen as recently as 2007. Opportunity cost always needs to be taken into consideration- I get the feeling that Wood’s 20+ million could have been funneled back into the organization in a more productive manner.
by David Golebiewski on Dec 14, 2008 7:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
Nice work. I have no idea what they were thinking. As an Indians’ fan, this is really disturbing to me.
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by Kyle Boddy on Dec 14, 2008 7:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Turn him into a starting pitcher!!!!
oh wait, been there and done that? I think the only way Wood would have any sort of chance to recoup the money spent on him would be in starting pitching (i’m assuming he’s not Rick Ankiel). Of course, that means a significantly increased amount of pitches thrown, which is likely to speed the demise of his health. At least the bullpen allows him to keep joint damage to a minimum by lowering the amount of pitching repetitions on his elbow/shoulder. I’m not an Indians’ fan, but I don’t get this move either. You’re better of using this money on other resources like prospects, FA’s (this year or next, since this is a two year deal we’re talking about), and/or paying Joe Borowski to stay as far away from your club as possible.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 9:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm.
Turning him into a starter might actually yield the best results with regard to value.
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by Kyle Boddy on Dec 14, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
assuming he'd actually stay healthy as a starter
and at this point, i think he’s had his chance and it’s safe to assume he wouldn’t.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, even if there’s risk that he wouldn’t, if he is healthy for 170 IP then that’s worth like $22m right there!
That would be an awesome experiment, and I would be totally behind it.
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http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Dec 14, 2008 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thinking...
Let’s assume that we attempt to convert Kerry Wood into a starting pitcher who throws 150 IP. Assuming that a major injury would give him a total value of zero wins (unlikely, since he would produce some wins at the beginning of his contract), how often does this need to succeed to be a positive investment? I definitely want to crunch the numbers on this, but my gut feeling is that it doesn’t need to succeed even half the time to work out for us.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Dec 14, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know this isn't quite correct
but out of ease, looking at the above numbers, Wood is worth 1.4 WAR (as a reliever of course) in 61 innings. If he needs to be pitching at a value worth 10mil/year, he needs to be at or above 2 WAR. Just eyeballing it, he would need to pitch about 90 innings at his current level to match that. Of course, like i said before, this is all as a reliever, and I don’t know how being a starting pitcher would affect this. I’d imagine, though, that as a starter he’d need to be pitching 100 or so innings to be matching his current contract.
That is questionably attainable for him, since the past few seasons (2008 notwithstanding) he’s pitched 140, 66, 19, and 24. While he may have just had an unlucky streak (he did have a lot of innings pitched prior to those seasons), my guess is that if he’s a starter he’s going to probably be pitching anywhere from 50-150 innings/season. I guess its a worth gamble, assuming you need an SP, but that’s going to have to be a call made by doctors and the gm.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 11:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
How valuable are these projections?
Per MGL (you’ll have to scroll a bit…), we can’t do any better than roughly predicting on a 1-4 WAR scale the quality of a starting pitcher and relievers, as you note, are even more highly variable. Likewise, we don’t even know what replacement level for a closer actually is (again, MGL says as much). Without this work, we’re using a crapload of suspicious assumptions. Not to mention the fact that these projections should ideally be probability tables in the first place (and Tango has long talked about the importance and difficulty in projecting playing time). Add in Wood’s injury history, and I’m convinced there’s no way we can actually value this deal properly.
I’m inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to those who deserve it. Shapiro has proven such.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 14, 2008 11:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wood as a market value starter
I really doubt he’d last as a starter, but for the sake of argument…
For Wood to be worth his roughly $10M salary, he’d have to be worth about 2 WAR, or 20 runs above replacement level.
A replacement level starter has a 5.50 FIP. Over 150 innings, a RL starter would surrender…
5.50 FIP/9 = .611 X150 innings = 91.7 runs allowed
Over 150 innings, Wood would need to be 20 runs above this mark, by allowing 71.7 runs. Using a little reverse engineering…
71.7/150 innings = .478 X 9 innings = 4.30
Wood would need to post a 4.30 FIP in 150 innings as a starter to be worth 2 WAR.
by David Golebiewski on Dec 14, 2008 12:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wood has a career FIP of 3.79
So at that rate:
3.79 FIP/9 = .421 * 150 innings = 63.15 runs allowed in 150 innings.
91.7-63.15 = 28.55 RAR or 2.85 WAR.
What’s really nice is that if you do these numbers again, but replace the 150 innings with 100 innings (my guess as to how much Wood would have to pitch to be worth the money), you get 61.1 RA for the replacement SP and 42.1 for Wood, or a difference of 19 RAR for Wood (1.9 WAR). Basically, Would is going to have to pitch slightly more than 100 innings to be worth his contract if he’s a starting pitcher. My guess would be that he could make 50 innings of starting, but probably would have a hard time reaching 150. If you play him as an SP, you have a shot to get better value out of Wood, but possibly at the cost of his health towards the end of the season, as well as possibly the 2010 season.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 1:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
*Wood is going to have to pitch slightly more than 100 innings
Would Wood chuck wood if a Wood Chuck could chuck wood? Damn confusing English language.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 1:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
To be exact
Replacement SP are going to give up .19 runs/inning MORE than Wood (.611-.421).
So: .611x-.421x = 20
.19x=20= 105.26
So basically if Wood pitches to career norms, he will have to pitch 105 1/3 innings in order to validate his contract. Of course the Indians are higher up on the win curve, so their marginal wins are worth more than, say, the Royals. I really don’t think this is going to KILL the Indians, one deal usual can’t kill a team, and it isn’t a terrible one…but it is a gamble nonetheless. Shapiro is going to just need to turn away from the TV when Wood is pitching and pray that he doesn’t hear anything about any elbows or shoulders.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 5:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I Disagree
This is the right sign at the right time for a Cleveland team that is stuck in the dreaded “middle”.
Even if a healthy Wood might is only worth $6-$8MM on the field during the regular season, closers come at a premium because once in the postseason, they become significantly more valuable. For that reason alone, Wood is worth more than his WAR suggests. Add in that wins are more valuable to teams on the bubble and above average is worth more than above replacement, and you might be able to justify the contract already.
There are more ways this deal can pay off for Cleveland if Wood stays healthy. Having control of an above average player for his position is always worth a little more than his WAR. When you take into account the Indians situation with unstable players like Hafner/Laporta/VMart, having control of a star on a short deal is even more valuable. If the Indians are in it come July, they won’t have to deal prospects (almost always more expensive than just cash) for this upgrade. If they’re out of it, they have a nice little trade chip. While there’s some risk here, the upside is immense. A best case scenario would have the Indians make the playoffs in 2009, then trade Wood in a market more friendly to closers at the deadline in 2010 for a prospect package significantly more valuable then the $15MM the Tribe would have paid Wood to that point.
With all that upside, how much risk is tolerable? Wood is a health risk, there is no doubt about that. There is no team better prepared to take on that kind of risk than the Cleveland Indians. They have one of the best medical staffs in the business, and this is one way a great medical staff can reap benefits. They can keep him on the field increasing the perfomance of the team and the trade value of Wood. That it’s a short term deal makes it even less risky. No mattter how bad Wood is, they will be able to get out from this contract. Even if he injures himself, so long as he can come back and establish some semblance of health, the Indians will be able to get out from the rest of the contract. The upside far outweighs the downside, which is Wood blowing out his elbow right after he finishes his 55th game and the Tribe are on the hook for $21MM while he rehabs for two years.
This is the right deal for the Indians. They are in the dreaded middle ground of being a contender or a rebuilder. There is no better deal for a team in the middle than a star on a short term deal. The failure of Shapiro is not this signing. It has been his inability to draft and develop one single impact player during his entire tenure as GM. On that note, the Indians are headed for a long rebuild sometime in the near future. IMO, Wood can only help that effort.
P.S. To sign a riskier player (Furcal) to a longer deal for more money at a position where you start one and already have two better players better would be bad.
by rwperu34 on Dec 14, 2008 4:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Furcal
is a much better investment even given his checker medical history but position player on average even injured ones will provide a great value then a relief pitcher. This was a knee jerk reaction to another losing season for the Indians. The Indians real problems don’t lie with their relief pitching but lies with the usage of their relief pitching and acquisition of aging players. They have tired to build this club on a shoe string budget with the same philosophy as the late 90’s teams. Problem is their key players have been injured or playing hurt and they veteran players they have chosen to bring in were wasted.
About Kerry Wood
I like the guy and I want to see him do well but with his mechanics, past injuries and a significantly tougher league will most likely see this guy appear to have an awful season and make this contract look down right atrocious.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Dec 14, 2008 9:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wood Question
Please don’t judge this post by my logon, as I am an unabashed Cleveland fan… I’m new to this forum but am very interested in learning more about sabermetrics.
My question regarding the Wood signing is this: Does signing Wood as a closer, change/improve the value of Lewis, Betencort, Perez etc., by placing them in a more proper bullpen role? In my niativity, I’m assuming a middle reliever, set-up man and closer would have different calculations due the leverage variable.
by Wahoo25Ben on Dec 15, 2008 1:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
HI
Wahoo25Ben
I am also an Indians fan that has been banned from LGT because they didn’t appreciate my thoughts on pitching or training. If you go that that place what ever you don’t even slightly argue with Jay because you will get smacked down by all his mindless minions.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Dec 15, 2008 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, Ben, just wanted to say that if you’re a diehard Tribe fan and you’re the kind of guy who starts questions with “in my naivete,” then Let’s Go Tribe is definitely a place you should check out.
Taking a decidedly non-saber stab at your question… Sometimes the ninth inning is the highest leverage inning, and often it isn’t. Having an elite closer — or any dedicated closer — means that your other relievers will be pitching the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings.
Some very smart people will tell you that your best reliever SHOULDN’T be your closer for that reason, and I think that’s what you’re referring to. Having given this a lot of thought, I disagree with these people, and here’s why.
If you put a lesser reliever in to close, as compared to an elite reliever, there is by definition a greater chance that the lesser reliever will fail, because that’s what makes him a lesser reliever — he sucks more often, and his sucking is usually worse than the elite reliever’s sucking when it happens. So there’s that. By signing Kerry Wood to close, you’re going to be using overkill in the ninth pretty regularly, but you’re also buying a significantly larger margin of error.
I would argue that there’s a significant trickle-down effect to having a reliable closer as well. Let’s assume for fun that all three of the guys you mention are having good years in 2009, and hey, maybe Joe Smith is, too. That means Wedge has a lot more flexibility to slot them into situations which fit their talents. Perez can get more innings when two or three left-handers are due up. Betancourt can get guys who are more susceptible to outside fastballs. Smith can get right-handers. Lewis can get the guys who are suckers for change-ups. And part of the reason Wedge can specialize his bullpen like that is that he’s much more confident that he doesn’t need the non-closers to close.
So that’s my best guess. Smart bullpen management with an elite closer gives the manager a greater opportunity to use the rest of his relievers in the situation for which their skills are best tailored, and I feel confident in saying that’s the single most important way in which bullpen management contributes to wins.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2008 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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