Request: Jon Lester
Hi, I would love it if you could do an analysis of 24 year old LHP Jon Lester, his mechanics and stuff. To my untrained eye, he seems to have an especially nice, easy delivery, and I recall reading scouts raving about his smooth and effortless mechanics and great arm action since he was a prospect. What say you? Are they really that good? Also, his mechanics are actually a little different this year than they have been in the past, as the pitching coach John Farrell had him eliminate putting his hands over his head in his windup, to simplify his delivery. It seemed to help him improve his command this year.
We all know about his illness and we know now he was pitching with diminished stuff for a while because of it. It may have affected his command as well. This year, his stuff was all the way back, probably better than ever. The velocity increased on all his pitches steadily throughout the year, because he added about 20 pounds to his frame. By the end of the year he was showing a 93-96 mph 4 seam fastball, as well as a sinking fastball (newly added pitch this year, actually a one-seamer), cutter, curveball, and occasional changeup. According to Fangraphs he throws his cutter at the second hardest velocity (88.4) of starters who throw that pitch more than 10% of the time.
I am curious to see what you think of his changeup, as he used it very little this year, but has been described as a good pitch in the past by scouts. I was wondering if you think if it could have the potential to be more with more consistency, or if it's a show-me pitch. It seemed like a pretty decent changeup to me, when it was on, but he just didn't seem to have much confidence in throwing it.
The Red Sox decided to take the calculated risk of having him increase his workload from his previous high by an additional 70 innings this year because they felt he was especially durable, citing his size and sound mechanics.
Do you think he has a good chance to enjoy a long and healthy career?
I am a newbie to this site, but I have found it very fascinating so far, and look forward to learning more about this essential but slightly mysterious facet of the game. Thanksalot!
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Nice post.
Your questions about the quality of his pitches would be an excellent one for Josh Kalk (dixieflatline) to answer, as he is the resident PITCHf/x expert. I’ll see if I can get him to weigh in on it.
As for his pitching mechanics, I can take a look myself. I’m sure plenty of people want to see him.
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by Kyle Boddy on
Dec 15, 2008 11:29 PM PST
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I could take a look at the pitch F/X data if you'd like
Kyle,
I’ll be on break from school soon enough, and I’d be willing to take a look at his pitch F/X data.
by David Golebiewski on
Dec 16, 2008 12:23 PM PST
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That would be great
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on
Dec 17, 2008 3:07 AM PST
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Okay
I’ll get started on this some time in the next few days. I think it would be a good idea to show Jon’s data from 2007 as well, to give us an idea of how far he has progressed as he has gained strength and stamina.
by David Golebiewski on
Dec 17, 2008 5:54 AM PST
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