While profiling CC Sabathia early this week, I mentioned that Sabathia recently overtook Tim Lincecum as the pitcher who has accrued the most pitcher abuse points this season (which Lincecum has now taken back after his last start).  I concluded that Sabathia really didn't seem phased by a lot of innings or some large pitch count games.  A reader who is an avid Giants fan was interested in a similar look at Tim Lincecum to see how he is holding up in September.  There are reasons to be concerned about the heavy workload Lincecum has received this year in comparison to a pitcher like Sabathia.  First, Lincecum is 24 and not yet past the injury nexus.  Second, Lincecum has already thrown more than twenty more innings than he had thrown last year and will likely end up shattering the 200 innings pitched level (he is at 198 2/3 right now).  Before we dive in to Lincecum's wear pattern let's look at a little deeper into what makes him so successful.

Tim Lincecum right now is a four pitch pitcher; fastball, change-up, slider, and curve.  When I profiled Lincecum before the season began I noted that his fastball was a four seamer because of the huge vertical "rise" he gets with that pitch and the relatively small horizontal movement.  It turns out I was wrong and this is actually Lincecum’s two seamer!  I have never seen a pitcher throw a two seamer that fast, and with that movement.  It is my understanding that Tim can’t control his four seamer so you wonder what kind of velocity and movement if he did throw a four seamer.  Two seamer or four seamer the important thing here is he is throwing it around 95 MPH which obviously is awesome.

Lincecum curve is a very hard curve thrown at over 80 MPH but he still gets above average movement with the pitch.  That is a deadly combination, most curveballs that have that much movement have to be thrown slower so there is more risk that a batter will identify the pitch in flight.  This one two punch really reminds me of Ben Sheets who also throws mid-90’s with a very hard curve.  Sheets’ curve is a little more 12 to 6 while Lincecum’s is a little more 11 to 5 but both clearly get the job done.  Because of the extra horizontal movement Lincecum’s curve is especially tough on right handed batters who have to deal with a ball that is dropping fast and tailing away from them.

The thing that separates Lincecum’s stuff from Sheets is his change-up.  While Sheets has been throwing a change-up more this year he gets very little speed differential with the pitch.  Lincecum however generates more than ten MPH difference between his fastball and his change.  That is very good and puts that pitch near elite levels.  Lincecum had just started throwing a change-up in the pros so this is somewhat of a new pitch for him but I really liked what I saw last year and wanted him to throw it more.  Lincecum has done just that this year especially to left handed batters and he is throwing it as a strikeout pitch.  Because his curve isn’t quite 12 to 6  it moves in to left handed batters and tends to end up down and in which is the happy zone for many lefties.  Enter Lincecum’s change-up which moves down and away from lefties with a huge speed differential.  This is the perfect weapon for him and he is using it perfectly right now

The slider is a brand new pitch which he worked on in the off season and is different from the slider he threw in college.  He began the year throwing more sliders but as the year has gone on he has been using the pitch less and less.  It is a hard slider checking in at around 85 MPH and actually hardly moves at all with around two inches of horizontal and vertical break.  I generally am not a fan of a slider with such little movement and Lincecum’s slider is no exception.  When a slider doesn’t have more horizontal movement the pitcher can’t start the pitch on the outside corner and then move it out of the strike zone.  When he does throw the slider it often is on a two strike count which again I wouldn’t do too much of as he isn’t getting the movement needed to make this a truly effective strikeout pitch.  I wouldn’t mind him throwing the slider early in the count in the strike zone as hitters gear up for the fastball.  That said, Lincecum is very rarely using this pitch right now so really it doesn’t make a big deal.

There is one more thing I want to mention before getting to Lincecum’s wear pattern.  The other thing that we can see with PITCHf/x but can’t yet really break down is variability in release point.  Previously, I have noted pitchers who have an exact release point which they stick with all the time and other pitchers who really vary their release point dropping their arm down on occasion.  Lincecum definitely falls into the second category with a huge variation in release point of almost two feet.

Notice that as the release point widens it also drops.  This means that it is a change in arm angle and not the pitcher moving from side to side on the mound.  A 95 MPH fastball is rather unfair in and of itself but when you team that with not being certain where the ball is coming from and it is no wonder why hitters have no chance.  Lincecum tends not to drop down as much when throwing his curve (and slider) but there is still plenty of variation even there.  I haven’t run the numbers on this yet but my guess is a large variation in release point helps the pitcher.  How much of a help I can’t say.  The other issue is if you have such a wide variation in release point what does that say about your mechanics?  PITCHf/x says absolutely nothing about what is going on before the ball is thrown and this is an area that I know little about so I will leave that to other to discuss but something I did want to point out.

Ok finally on to Lincecum’s wear pattern.

For an explanation of how to read this plot check here.  Because of the wide variation in release point his horizontal and vertical movements have really been bouncing around all year.  Also notice the large spread in movement especially horizontally.  This makes perfect sense as the largest spread in his release point is horizontally as well.  Notice that while there doesn’t seem to be much of a trend in the vertical movement up or down throughout the year there is a trend to less horizontal movement.  It isn’t a perfect line but there is definitely a trend.

Movement is nice but the thing that makes Tim Lincecum’s fastball so good is the velocity.  Lincecum’s velocity has been more consistent in game that either his horizontal or vertical movement which we would expect looking at his release point.  Here too there is definitely a trend and this time it is pointing down.  In the first few months of the season, Lincecum’s fastball average above 95 MPH in all but a handful of games.  In the last month, none of his starts have resulted in an average fastball above 95 MPH.  This trend is small, only one to two MPH, but it is noticeable and slightly worrying combined with the decrease in horizontal movement.

Those two variables really tend to go hand in hand for most pitchers.  When the release point is up, the velocity is up, and the horizontal movement is down.  When the release point is lower everything else is reversed.  You likely have heard the saying that a pitcher has traded some speed for movement and this is exactly what they are talking about.  Here, Lincecum’s horizontal movement is down and so is his velocity.  It could be that if Lincecum was throwing with the same movement he had in the beginning of the year now that his velocity would be even lower than it is now.

While I did want to point that out I do want to mention that these wear patterns are very new and no league average has been established yet.  It could be that an average starter would tend to lose more on his fastball as the year goes on than Lincecum has.  Also, his last four starts have been very consistent velocity wise so it is very possible that thing are stabilizing a tick above 94 MPH which still puts him near the top of the league velocity wise.

In conclusion, Tim Lincecum is truly a great pitcher who is a lot more than just his fastball.  His off speed pitches don’t get a lot of press but his curveball and change-up are both plus pitches at worst.  Lincecum has thrown a lot of innings and has gone deep into many games this year and that is something the Giants should monitor very closely.  It does appear that Lincecum has lost a little heat on the fastball but it isn’t like he is falling off a cliff so I don’t think it is anything major but something to pay attention to.

Josh Kalk writes for drivelinemechanics and can be reached at josh@drivelinemechanics.com