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On Strasburg

Sooooooo if you don't know the name yet, you should, San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg is ridiculous.  He's far and away the front runner to be the #1 overall pick, and the blogospheres for the worst teams in baseball have been alive with tanking wishes so they can get him to salvage something from the season.  He was the only amateur on the US National team and you can watch his start against Cuba here.  Though it wasn't a dominant one you can see he's got the low to high 90s fastball, the power curve, the size, the command, not to mention the stats (ridiculous 133/16 K/BB), he even has a cool name.  But what would this site be if we didn't ask about the mechanics?  I don't have any slo-mo GIFs for you, but my thoughts inside the break:

Star-divide

Like I said no video so this is going to be short, but hopefully with the Cuba game you can follow along.  From an injury perspective I can sum it up with "Uh Oh".  He has a long arm action that he brings into a  "whip" movement with borderline hyperabduction, I'd need video from the side to really tell.  Stand alone I'm not nearly as negative towards "whippyness" as Kyle is so long as you keep the elbow below shoulder line and **avoid the timing flaws** but here he is at footplant:

Strasburgedit_medium

Clearly not at the high cocked yet when his shoulders are rotating---the arrow points to his GS elbow peeking to a very off center camera.  For a guy who throws as hard as he does that's a major red flag to both the elbow and shoulder.  On top of that he actively breaks his arm without an aggressive finish nor does he really turn the shoulder line very far towards homeplate.  This isn't to say he doesn't do other things well, obviously he does to be able to throw 98, but looking at this leads me to believe that he's a risky proposition long term.

That said I don't necessarily hate him as a draft prospect.  I probably wouldn't drop the 10 million he's probably going to seek being the consensus NUMBER ONE guy instead of drafting someone with cleaner mechanics like say Kyle Gibson, but you do have to keep it in perspective.  For example, A.J. Burnett is a trainwreck and the Marlins still wrangled ~650 innings innings (minors and majors) out of him before his elbow popped and another 330 after that.  If you say Strasburg has 500 innings left before blowing something out he's still a fine guy to use money on because he's going to rocket to the majors in less than 100 innings if you believe in the stuff (which you should).  If Tim Lincecum or Cole Hamels or [rookie pitcher] were a free agent pitcher 2 years ago and you knew you couldn't resign him, would anyone turn down 2yrs/8 million???  Although entirely oversimplified and ignoring other factors, same principle and Strasburg's stuff is that good.  Don't expect him to be a franchise saviour, but it beats blowing money on Carlos Silva...or has Silva made another mechanical adjustment to get more sink recently?

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He'll still go #1

How much do teams take his mechanics into consideration? Does he potentially drop a few spots if a toolsy HS kid comes along to steal the show such as a Tim Beckham or Matt Bush?

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Sep 6, 2008 6:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Only ways he doesn't go #1

1. He gets hurt
2. The #1 team goes cheap, which is a definite possibility with the Nationals especially with their having to also pay out another top 10 pick for not signing Crow.
3. Kyle Gibson starts throwing 93-95 like he should be able to do but hasn’t. I can’t even imagine how good his slider would be if it was coming in at 88.

Like I said, even with what I’d say is high risk, he’s still valuable with the filthy stuff he has.

by nickmueller on Sep 6, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Making GIFs

Is it the lack of a video file that’s preventing you from making GIFs? I can record a snippet of him pitching from the Cuba game and send it to you, if you want.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Sep 6, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The hassle of getting the video converting it was a semi-factor

But this was meant to be a little shorter than it even was and I think I made my point just with the JPG.

by nickmueller on Sep 7, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How did he get into college without an ML deal?

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Sep 7, 2008 2:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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