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Pitch F/X Profile: Morrow's first start

The Seattle Mariners have made plenty of capricious decisions over the past few years. Without even getting into the debacle that is the major league roster, the M's have shown a tendency to expedite players through the minor league system, zooming them past levels that the players are probably not yet equipped to handle. Brandon Morrow is one such example of this trend.

 

Star-divide

The 5th overall selection out of Cal in 2006, Morrow scarcely saw minor league action before being pigeonholed in the Seattle bullpen for the better part of the past two seasons. Morrow missed plenty of bats during his rookie season in 2007 (9.38 K/9), but his control (7.11 BB/9) and pitch selection (80 % fastballs) suggested that he would have been better served accumulating innings in the minor leagues. Morrow's walk rate is much improved in '08 (3.65 BB/9), and with the starting rotation a train wreck outside of Felix Hernandez (the M's rank 23rd in SNLVAR), the team recently decided to move Morrow into the starting rotation.

In his first major league start, Morrow lasted 7 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees, striking out 8 batters and surrendering just 1 hit and 1 earned run while flirting with a no-hitter. How did Morrow subdue the Bombers? Let's take a look at his Pitch F/X data from the start to find out.

Brandonmorrow9-5-08_medium

The chart above shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Morrow got on his pitches against the Yankees, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Morrow's pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has.

Type    MPH    X(In.)    Z(In.)    %Thrown

FB       95.7     -2.68    10          58.5 (62/106)

CH     83.75    -6.39    4.55      15.1 (16/106)

SL       86.5      2.44     0.65      15.1 (16/106)

CB      83.4      2.08     -7.88     11.3 (12/106)

Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=fastball, CH=Changeup, SL=Slider, CB=Curveball . MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch.

 Fastball-centric as a reliever, Morrow actually showed something of an egalitarian approach during his start against the Yankees. In addition to his heater, Morrow mixed in a good amount of changeups, sliders and curveballs.

Morrow's fastball has long been his calling card, and he lit up the radar guns at an average initial velocity of 95.7 MPH. As you would expect with a 4-seam pitch thrown at that speed, Morrow's heater has little horizontal (tailing) action but it does have above-average vertical movement (10 inches, compared to the 9.78 league average). Morrow also held his velocity pretty well throughout his first start

Morrow's average FB speed by inning:

1st: 96.8    2nd: 96.8    3rd: 96    4th: 94.4    5th: 95    6th: 95.8    7th: 95.8    8th: 94.9

That's pretty impressive for a guy used to airing it out for one inning at a time. Morrow was probably aided in this regard by his willingness to throw his offspeed pitches as well; he wasn't relying too heavily on his fastball.

With a big speed differential between his fastball and changeup (11.95 MPH), fading action (3.71 more inches of horizontal movement than his fastball) and plenty of "dropping" action (4.55 Z, compared to 10 on the heater), Morrow's changeup has the look of an extremely promising pitch. If Morrow can master the arm speed and action of the pitch, one could imagine the goofy swings opposing hitters would make on the changeup. Imagine gearing up to hit 96 MPH cheese, and instead getting an 84 MPH change that drops off the table and away from you. That's nasty.

Morrow also incorporated a hard slider (86.5 MPH) that showed a decent amount of movement away from right-handed batters. He managed to keep the pitch out of the fat part of the plate, and the pitch looks like it could be a solid weapon against righties.

The Cal product really dropped the hammer in this game, showing a curveball with a ton of vertical drop (-7.88 Z). and just about a much horizontal movement (2.08 X) as his slider. Notice how the curve and slider are at about the same place on the chart horizontally? With similar horizontal movement but drastically different vertical movement, Morrow's slider and curve work in nearly the same way that a fastball and changeup do. Morrow's curve mirrors his slider by breaking away from right-handers, but the pitch breaks down in the zone over seven inches further! In effect, Morrow's curve is a changeup to his slider.

While viewing this data, it is important to keep in mind that this was but one start, and thus the sample sizes are not as ideal as one would like. However, it is safe to say that Morrow showed a diverse and effective repertoire against the Yankees. In a season where little has gone right, Seattle fans can at least take solace in knowing that Morrow has the tools to succeed as a major league starter.

A Journalism student at Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David via email at david@drivelinemechanics.com or golebie1029@duq.edu

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I don't know

But after watching him pitch it screams superstar to me. Maybe a follow up on his mechanics is in order now but from pure pitching ability ( command of the strike zone and pitches, plus fastball and offspeed pitches.) he looks like a stud.

Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist

by E5 on Sep 7, 2008 6:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Morrow's mechanics...

I know we can’t judge too much on one frame, but this picture…

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/190/550445241_c94616221f.jpg?v=0

…worries me a little. I hope his arm holds out, though I wouldn’t put money down on it…

by Dalkowski110 on Sep 8, 2008 7:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

His timing isn't as bad as it looks

He keeps his front shoulder closed for an unusually long time (ends up generating some ridiculous separation in the process) so while his arm isn’t up at footplant, he isn’t turning his shoulders either. Kyle would have to do a full breakdown and he may be a tad late still, but I don’t see that by itself as a massive problem.

by nickmueller on Sep 8, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks...

I’m a relative newcomer to pitching mechanics…I’ve only been seriously looking at guys for maybe a year, and just on my spare time, at that. Not having studied Brandon Morrow/put a ton of effort into watching him, how is his finish?

by Dalkowski110 on Sep 8, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brandon Morrow

I definitely would like to get around to doing this.

Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting

by Kyle Boddy on Sep 8, 2008 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way David

Has anyone done a test on how vertical/horizontal movement affects a fastball? So 10 inches is above average in vertical movement, is that a good thing? Obviously the sinkerballs that come in at 1-2 are awesome to get groundballs but is 10+ better than 8-10 etc?

by nickmueller on Sep 8, 2008 5:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Quick question...

Where can I go to get these pitch f/x numbers from MLBAM?

Will...I...be...able...to...play...softball...tomorrow?
Oh, no, Mr. Scioscia. At this time tomorrow, you'll barely be able to breathe.

by UribeAuction on Sep 10, 2008 7:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

amazingggg

This is the most astounding blog i have ever read. It is very ceremonious about Brandon Morrow’s statistics. GREAT JOB G ballz.

by westin on Sep 11, 2008 10:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

again

again i like to say this is a very prodigious article!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by westin on Sep 12, 2008 9:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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