Living in the Limelight: Gregg Zaun's Free Agent Value
I'm worn out. I don't have anything to add to the playoff discussion, and it's still weeks until baseball-databank, etc. are ready to make things available. I have other stuff in the pipeline, but for now, in honor of his awesome Rogers Sports Net commentaries on the playoffs (and since we have some catcher defense numbers to go on for 2009), let's take a look at the potential free agent value of one of my favorite players (and I suspect he's a favorite of many others): Gregg Zaun. Are you ready to bring your Z-Game?
I'm not sure what the market is like for catcher this offseason, but it seems like every year, guys like Paul Bako and Jose Molina get jobs. You know, guys who can't hit a lick, but have a reputation as "good glove men" or allegedly can "calls a good name," things which always seem to attach to catchers that...can't hit. While its true that defense is very important, and that catcher defense is hard to quantify, this might be a case where many clubs don't realize that their catcher also has to hit, and moreover, that even without injuries to their starter, that the backup is going to see significant time. Only four catchers started more than 130+ games this season at the position, and only 8 started 120+. So having a decent backup at the position is arguably more important there than at any other position, since you pretty much know that your start isn't going to be available for at least 40 games at that position, even if he's healthy.
Gregg Zaun, of course, became famously known years ago as the Practically Perfect Backup Catcher©. But, as the inventors of this notions discovered, given the general hitting ability (or lack thereof) among catcher, Zaun was actually a pretty decent starter. This ways years ago... Zaun is now advanced in age, and seems destined for a series of one-year contracts. But what is is true talent level?
Hitting: Zaun's not a horrible. He's not what he used to be, of course, but a .344 career OBP is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a catcher. What do we think his true wOBA talent is at the moment? From 2006-2009 his wOBAs have been .351, .324, .316, and .344. Adjusting for age, taking a weighted average and regressing to a league average (weighted by year and PA) wOBA of .330, we get a true talent level of a .325 wOBA, or about -2 runs (2 runs below average) per 700 PA.
Fielding: Catcher fielding is tough to quantify. For 2009, I've used my own numbers cited above. For 2005-2008 I've used Rally's numbers, prorated. I've then combined then with the Fans Scouting Report, and given a bit more weight to the FSR then I usually do, to take into account the problematic nature of the statistics. Zaun wasn't bad this season, being a bit above average, although Rally has him as being around 6-7 runs below average (prorated) in each season 2005-2008. The Fans are harder on him -- my translations have him as. -1.5 this season, -8 in 2008, -9 in 2007, and -4 in 2006. With regression of the numbers and the FSR combined, he seems like a -4 defender per 162 games.
Adding it all together: -2 hitting -4 fielding +12.5 positoin +25 AL replacement level * .75 playing time = 23 WAR - 0.5 aging penalty = 1.8 WAR player in 2010.
Not bad at all, considering Zaun made only $2M this pas season, and seems unlikely to get a raise. If, as usual, guys like Zaun go for cheap, some team is going to get a good deal on a part-time catcher who's defense isn't great (but isn't dreadful) and can get on-base. Not a bad backup for, say, Matt Wieters, huh?
They can't all be Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez, or even Yadier Molina. But they don't all have to be Miguel Olivo or Jason Varitek or even Rod Barajas, either. Let's see who's smart.
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Well the question is
Do the Rays pick up his option? I suspect so
by OsandRoyals on Oct 21, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"There is no f*cking drummer better than Neil Peart"
I’d love for the Mets to get him on a one year deal so we can keep Thole in the minors for another year.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 23, 2009 9:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs














