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Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

And away we go...

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons...  Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle  the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star  he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible  vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!