A New Era: Giants Extend Freddy Sanchez
I know there's a World Series going on and everything, but isn't anyone going to talk about the bigger news? That's right: Freddy Sanchez re-signed with the Giants for 2 years, $12 million, replacing his 2010 club option for $8M (with a $0.6M buyout) from his previous contract with the Pirates. Isn't this more interesting than reading about going on three days rest, Chase Utley, terrible managing, and OMG Derek Yeter is teh overated!!1111ONE?//?
Yes. Yes it is. (Okay, maybe not Utley)
Offense: Remember when Freddy Sanchez won a batting title? Three things to keep in mind:
- He's never come close to being that good again. Thus we have an near-paradigmatic lesson regarding BABIP and the the small-sample issues of one season in general.
- His wOBA that season was .364, which is good, but low given what you would expect from guy hitting .344. In other words, he was batting average and pretty much nothing else on offense. So if the average goes... See point 1.
- 2006 was a long time ago.
Since the .364 in 2006, Sanchez had a still-decent .339 wOBA in 2007, then collaposed in 2008 with a .292, then "bounced back" to a merely below-average .322 this season between Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Adjusting for age and regressing to the mean, Sanchez projects as a .325 wOBA hitter, about 2.5 runs below average.
Fielding: Sanchez has a reputation as a good defensive 2B, but he actually played mostly 3B during his glorious 2006 season. I decided to give that a bit of weight, and along with his other numbers, have him regressed to having the skill of a +4 2B or so. In 2007, he had an +11.6 UZR/150 at 2B, in 2008 he was -1.8, and in 2009, he was +7.4. Despite his reputation, the Fans Scouting Report isn't as impressed once I translate it to runs. While the Fans have his skills rated at +4.7 (adjusted for 2B) in 2006, he was -0.7 in -0.7, -3.5 in 2008, and -0.6 in 2009. The Fans don't hate him, but there wasn't a lot of homerism, either. Overall, Sanchez projects as around a +1 defender at 2B.
Overall Value: -2.5 hitting + 1 fielding + 2.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement level = 22 runs above replacement * 85% playing time = ~1.8 WAR player.
That doesn't seem like a terrible deal. If you assume the usual amount of annual attrition and $4.5M per marginal win, this deal seem about right. On the other hand, Sanchez is getting older, and has only played 150 games once in his career in (you guessed it) 2006. The deal is probably just right in line with the market. While it is isn't really a dumb deal considered in isolation (and someone with a greater knowledge of the GIants system can fill in the details about their internal options), it isn't particularly smart. It's average. Everyone loves finishing .500, right?
Who knows, maybe Sabean will try to flip him for a prospect at the deadline next season. I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Tim Alderson?
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However, we might want to take a
Missing something? Or is it a bug with the new SB Nation layout?
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by baetown415 on Nov 3, 2009 10:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yes. Definitely the new layout.
Not my own attention/typing issues.
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by devil_fingers on Nov 3, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants Really Are the Royals!
The Giants might have been better just exercising the option — $7.4 million for one year (factoring in the $600K buyout) seems more reasonable that $11.4 million over two years. Sanchez is at the point where he should be a year-to-year commodity.
by Gopherballs on Nov 3, 2009 10:42 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Right
I don’t see the Royals having a pitching staff anywhere near what the Giants got. Plus, they have fans who show up at the park. And they were only a few games away from the playoffs this season, the Royals were not even close.
The Giants, if you are going to account for the option, which they held, as a better deal, I don’t see how you came to that conclusion. Assuming your premise that $7.4M in 2010 is good for Sanchez, why isn’t $4M in 2011 even better?
And, in any case, the Giants have nobody better in the farm system ready to come up in 2010 and it would be great speculation for anyone to suggest that Burriss would be ready by 2011, he first has to prove that he is back physically, then he has to prove that he can even hit in the minors regularly, let alone the majors, in my mind.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 23, 2009 9:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
someone with a greater knowledge of the GIants system can fill in the details about their internal options
Aye, there’s the rub. Internal options were definitely few. Frandsen, Burriss- these guys project a lot worse than Sanchez (a few might disagree, but this is the consensus opinion as far as I’ve seen), and while we could theoretically re-sign Uribe, and give him second base, I would rather we put Uribe at shortstop and consider Renteria a sunk cost. That will never happen, Uribe may well sign somewhere else, and Uribe probably isn’t really that great anyway, so I’m pleased about this deal. Second base is simply not a high value offense position for a lot of teams, so average-to-slightly-below-average offense with average-to-slightly-above-average defense, well, that works for me.
Finally, as far as younger, further away options at second, well, the Giants don’t really have much good stuff in the pipeline that I’m aware of. It’s kind of scary, like a number of other positions. Giants position player depth right now is pretty sad.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Nov 3, 2009 11:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Downs, Rohlinger, Brock Bond, too.
Realistically, the Giants were signing a FA 2B this off season, it was only a matter of who.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Nov 3, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Downs = getting older, hasn’t been given much of a look. Not sure why.
Rohlinger = same as Downs.
Brock Bond = OBP monster with no power. That combo probably won’t play well at major league level? Younger though.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Nov 3, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't know much about those guys
just looking at the numbers (like I said, I know close to nothing about these guys), all three look like part-timers at best; how much of chance you want to give any of them depends on what you think the Giants’ chances are next season. If you thikn they need to rebuild, it’s probably worth trying at least one of them in a at least backup role, picking up Sanchez’s option, and if they fall out, trade Sanchez and start the guy you like best.
If they don’t t hink they can contend next season, then the obviously should be trying to trade Sanchez whenever they think his value will be the highest. That wouldn’t require resigning him. They should be playing a younger, cheaper guy and reloading.
In other words, Gopherballs is pretty much dead-on above.
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by devil_fingers on Nov 3, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THe GIants certainly think they can contend next season. I’m a little less sure, but have no problem with them trying.
None of the second base prospects will really break my heart if they don’t get a shot.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Nov 4, 2009 7:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because Downs is horrible on defense.
Rohlinger is viewed as a future utility guy, so he’s been playing 2B, SS, as well as 3B.
Bond is interesting but he’s got no above average talent, so he’s going to be a year to year evaluation.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 23, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Spot on d_f.
I did a piece about Sanchez on my own site, figuring the Marlins could put him at third base, where he apparently was very good. Alas, I came to about the same conclusion, with better defense. Then again, given what the Fans seem to think about his arm, I think a more pessimistic defensive view may have been in order. I did this before the trade deadline, so the FSR for this year wasn’t available.
All that to say that I agree.
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by SFiercex4 on Nov 3, 2009 12:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What most Giants fans don’t get (and all non-Giants fans) is that with great pitching, you don’t need a great offense to win a division. In fact, if they just had an average offense, then their pitching is good enough to win a division. Use Pythag and just try it out, you’ll see it in a table.
In addition, a THT study found that being good at preventing runs results in your team not needing to score as many runs in order to win the same number of games. That also comes into play as well.
Thus, the Giants only need to focus on improving certain positions offensively just to average production in order to greatly improve their chances of winning. Last season, 2B was a black hole of offensive production. Sanchez, even the non-2006 Sanchez overall, would be a huge improvement over the low .600 OPS that they got from 2B last season.
RF was also a hole (Winn) but Schierholtz looks to be about average offensively, based on his MLEs from AAA. Bowker hopefully can continue his improvement in AAA into the majors and provide average offense from LF, where we got below average production. And Posey, at some point, should be able to provide at least average offense from C, which we did not get from Molina last season. Lastly, Renteria’s elbow had an asteroid-sized object taken out, and hopefully his swing will be much better in 2010 and he can provide at least average production there at SS (people are dreaming if they think Uribe is going to repeat his performance). 1B is below average but 3B is 1B worthy, so each is the average of the other. And Rowand has been about average CF offensively.
And while Sanchez is injury prone, Frandsen has been a good enough hitter in the minors that he can play for 2-3 weeks and not hold back the offense or defense that much taking over there.
That’s the whole ballclub, approximately average if we can get prospects hitting as well as they did in AAA-MLE and vets (Renteria, Sanchez, Rowand) to what they can hit when healthy. If we can get an average offense (4.5 RS) with our pitching staying the same or better (3.7 RA), the Giants should win mid-90’s games. That should be good enough to win the division, or at least make the playoffs via the wildcard.
It should not take much to get an Alderson type. Pitchers who cannot strike out over 5 K/9 in AA are usually dime a dozen, particularly when they don’t have any above average skills that suggest that things will get better for him in the majors. Meanwhile, the Giants got a major league average 2B when they had nobody in the minors who look like they can do that regularly for them over the next two seasons.
However, I would offer up Nick Noonan as a future 2B who might be able to take over once Sanchez is gone. He’s been a disappointment up to now, but he had a great two month end of the season where he was walking a whole lot more and showing the discipline that he was known for when he was drafted but hadn’t shown until now.
People (and I include myself) forget that he’s only 20 years old. When he started the season, he was a 19 year old facing pitchers who have 4-6 years of experience in college and/or pros, while he only had one year in the pros. That experience factor really worked against him until late in the season when he started figuring things out. I’m greatly encouraged about him now, not to the point where I would put him back up on that hyped prospect pedestal that he was on when he was drafted, but I think he’s at least on track for being a MLB starter again, while I would have doubted that previously.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
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"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 23, 2009 9:49 AM PST reply actions 0 recs














