Jeter to Center Field, O-Cab to Shortstop?
It's that time of the offseason where things grind to a halt. There just hasn't been a whole lot to placate the rabid baseball fan in recent days, unless Matt Murton to the Rockies and Corey Wimberly to the A's strikes your fancy.
As such, let's take a look at an intriguing, controversial issue that Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus brought up recently: moving The Captain off of shortstop and into center field, and filling New York's glamour position with free agent Orlando Cabrera.
Now, Jeter shifting elsewhere on the diamond is not in itself a new issue. As you probably well know, Jeter's defensive merits have been subject to countless arguments within the baseball sphere. But while most discussions that pertain to moving Jeter off short end in the realm of hypotheticals, Kahrl comes up with a rather specific plan:
"Obviously, getting Jeter's buy-in is a real-world problem for a team with a real-world need for a center fielder, because the margins are too thin in the tough AL East for the Yankees to really rely on the wrong Cabrera in the lineup. Crying over last year's spilled Melky won't help you catch up to the Rays and Red Sox, but signing Orlando Cabrera, providing the team with a useful-enough hitter and a slick-fielding asset at short could make a small but important difference to a bad defensive ballclub. Last season's Yankees ranked 25th in the major leagues in Defensive Efficiency (their ability to convert balls in play into outs) and Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and no positions see more chances than the middle infield."
Signing Cabrera and bumping Jeter to the outfield pasture may not be especially likely, but it seems like a sensible bit of roster re-alignment. However, let's go past conjecture and actually try to get a read on how such a plan would impact the 2009 Yankees.
To do so, I am going to compare the projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of a Jeter/Melky Cabrera duo and an Orlando Cabrera/Jeter outfit. To figure out a player's WAR, one has to account for the following factors:
- offensive value: how many runs above or below average a player is with the bat.
For this article, I will be using a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average) compared to the league average. wOBA is a metric that assigns a particular run value to each offensive event, weighing each event properly. For more on wOBA, check out Dave Cameron's post here.
wOBA is scaled to look like OBP, so the league-average wOBA is essentially the same as the league-average OBP. The average OBP for the AL in 2008 was .335, so that's what we'll use to compare Jeter, Melky Cabrera and Orlando Cabrera. To do so, you take a player's wOBA, subtract in from the league average (.335) and then multiply by the number of plate appearances that a player gets. As an example, here's Derek Jeter's 2008 offensive production:
.343 wOBA - .335 AL AVG= .008 X 668 Plate Appearances = +5.34 runs above average
To come up with an offensive number for '09, I will be using the Marcel Projection system from FanGraphs. It takes three-year player data and regresses it.
- defensive value: how many runs above or below average a player's glove work is, compared to that of his peers at the same position
I will be using UZR data from FanGraphs. UZR is a zone-based metric that compares how many runs above or below average a fielder is compared to others playing that position. For more on UZR, see David Appelman's post here.
To determine defensive value, I'm going to take a three-year average of a player's UZR/150 (runs below or above average per 150 defensive games).
- replacement level: a replacement level player (a readily-available player who could be had for the league minimum) is typically thought to be about -20 runs (-2 wins) compared to an average player. Therefore, to compare a player's win contribution compared to that of a replacement-level player, we add +20 runs per 600 PA.
- positional adjustment: to account for varying levels of difficulty across the defensive spectrum, players at certain positions are assigned additional credit (catcher, shortstop, second base, third base, center field) while corner outfielders and DH's incur a penalty. Here are the positional adjustments, developed by Tom Tango:
C: +12.5 runs
SS: +7.5 runs
2B: +2.5 runs
3B: +2.5 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
LF/RF: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs
For the purposes of this article, we want to focus on shortstop (+7.5) and center field (+2.5)
For more on how WAR works, check out Colin Wyers' article on player value here. At the bottom is a link to several fantastic articles explaining the inner workings of the calculations by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.
Using WAR, we can get an estimate of which alignment would benefit Yankees more: the status quo (Jeter/Melky Cabrera) or the controversial Orlando Cabrera/Jeter option.
Status Quo (Jeter at SS, Melky in CF):
Jeter at SS
Offense: +12.5 runs (based on 699 PA, an average of his last 3 years)
Defense: -8.6 runs
Replacement Adjustment: +23.3 runs
Positional Adjustment: +7.5 runs
TOTAL: 3.47 WAR
Melky in CF
Offense: -10.8 runs (based on 600 PA)
Defense: -7.5 runs
Replacement Adjustment: +20 runs
Positional Adjustment: +2.5 runs
TOTAL: 0.42 WAR
Total WAR for Jeter/Melky combo: 3.89
Tabloid Explosion (O-Cab at SS, Jeter in CF)
Before we go any further, it's important to point out that we basically have no idea as to what sort of center fielder Jeter would be. Because of that, I'm going to use a range of defensive estimates, rather than foolishly trying to pin down a specific number.
Orlando Cabrera at SS
Offense: -12.6 runs (based on 600 PA)
Defense: +7.2 runs
RL Adjustment: +20 runs
Pos. Adjustment: +7.5 runs
TOTAL: 2.21 WAR
Jeter in CF
Offense: +12.5 runs (based on 699 PA, an average of his last 3 years)
Defense: see below
Replacement Adjustment: +23.3 runs
Positional Adjustment: +2.5 runs
Without taking defense into account, Jeter would be worth 3.83 WAR. Let's see how that figure changes, based on his possible defensive prowess in center:
-12.5 runs: 2.58 WAR
- 10 runs: 2.83 WAR
-7.5 runs: 3.08 WAR
-5 runs: 3.33 WAR
-2.5 runs: 3.58 WAR
Average (0): 3.83 WAR
Now that we have accounted for a wide range of defensive quality for Jeter in center, we can go back to our original question: would signing Orlando Cabrera and moving The Captain result in additional runs for the Bombers in the ultra-competitive AL East? Let's see...
Status Quo (Jeter at SS, Melky in CF): 3.89 WAR
O-Cab at Short, Jeter in center field, depending on Jeter's D in CF:
Cabrera projects to be worth 2.21 WAR. Here's that figure, combined with Jeter's WAR in CF based on the range of D we listed above:
If Jeter is a...
-12.5 run defender: 4.79 WAR (2.58 for Jeter, 2.21 for O-Cab), +0.9 WAR advantage over Jeter/Melky alignment
-10 run defender: 5.04 WAR, +1.16 WAR over Jeter/Melky
-7.5 run defender: 5.29 WAR, +1.4 WAR over Jeter/Melky
-5 run defender: 5.54 WAR, +1.65 WAR over Jeter/Melky
-2.5 run defender: 5.79 WAR, +1.9 over Jeter/Melky
Average defender: 6.04 WAR, +2.15 over Jeter/Melky
We have little idea of how good or bad of a center fielder Derek Jeter would be, but even if we assume that Jeter would be lousy (costing his team -12.5 runs with the leather), the projected WAR of an Orlando Cabrera/Derek Jeter duo (4.79 WAR) trumps that of a Jeter/Melky Cabrera alignment (3.89 WAR) by nearly a win. If Jeter isn't quite so bad, that advantage grows even further, perhaps nearer 2 wins if Jeter is only kind of bad in center.
Will the Yankees sign Orlando Cabrera and shift the face of the franchise to center? It seems exceedingly unlikely. As Kahrl puts it:
"This association of a high-profile player—indeed, a celebrity ballplayer in his own right—with his position is seen as a major factor militating against even suggesting that Jeter move to some other spot on the field."
Spending the gross domestic product of some small countries on free agents this offseason, the Yankees are obviously going "all-in" and are desperate to return to the playoffs. Setting aside nostalgia by signing O-Cab and shifting The Captain to center might be a wildly unpopular move, but it's difficult to envision a scenario where such an alignment doesn't improve the club. In a division that figures to be historically great next season (Boston and Tampa Bay aren't going away anytime soon), the Bombers can ill-afford to leave any stones unturned in terms of improving their chances of making the playoffs.
A Journalism student at Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, Fan Graphs and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David via email at golebie1029@duq.edu or judidave87@msn.com
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Comments
Nice job,
Months ago I suggested in a thread on Royals Review that the Yankees should be in on the Furcal sweepstakes for similar reasons.
Of course, it all depends on how much you want to spend on O-Cab for the marginal win or two…
Let’s check out the scenario using CHONE’s context-neutral lwts/150 for offense and his defensive projections, just to see what results we get with a different system. Because I’m lazy, I’ll just to Runs Above Replacement.
JeterMelk:
Jeter +7 offense, -13 defense, +7.5 pos. +20 replace = +21.5 RAR
Melky -1 offense, -3 defense, +2.5 pos. +20 replace = +18.5 RAR
JeterMelk Total: 40 RAR
O- Cab +1 defense, -13 offense, +7.5 pos., +20 replace = +15.5 RAR
Well, that’s different… I’m just in process, I didn’t think this out ahead of time. From CHONE, it looks like JeterMelk is a better bet, unless I"m using things wrong. I’m guessing the biggest discrepancy is in how we project Melky/O-Cab. I know that Cabrera is rated really high in bUZR, but CHONE isn’t as impressed with his defense. Any idea was plus/minus says? I know he isn’t on their leaders/trailers…
Great post, though. Hopefully others will chime in here.
I guess it all depends on how we project the different players. Maybe I’
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 5, 2009 7:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
David
You made Neyer’s blog!
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 5, 2009 11:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Neyer
He links to our blog somewhat frequently, but never answers my emails. :)
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Feb 5, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah... I'm just jealous of you guys
maybe if I had a “real” name…. or wrote anything worth reading…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 5, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR kind of hates Melky
Devil_Fingers,
I think the discrepancy comes from a few different areas:
Orlando Cabrera rates as a plus defender per UZR, but just average on CHONE. Melky is pretty awful in center per UZR, while CHONE has him at just below average.
CHONE is also more optimistic on Melky’s offensive production, Marcel is not. By definition, Marcel is never going to predict a “breakout”- it basically just assumes that a player’s last 3 years represent his talent level.
By the way, I’m going to run the numbers using Rob’s suggestion that Brett Gardner would be a game-changer for this exercise. I’m not quite as sold.
by David Golebiewski on Feb 5, 2009 12:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Gardner Numbers
Gardner (per CHONE) projects to post a .318 wOBA. Over 600 PA, that comes out to 10.2 runs. I’m not really sold that he’ll post anything beyond that Gardner’s skill-set (good eye, but no power and high K rates) is very similar to that of Michael Bourn. Gardner’s most comparable player per PECOTA was actually Bourn.
Replacement Level: +20
Position: +2.5
I think it’s fair to qualify Gardner as a plus defender, given his scouting reports and what we’ve seen of him thus far. It’s arbitrary, but let’s give him +5 in center field.
Total, that would make Gardner worth 1.73 WAR. Jeter at SS (3.47 WAR) plus Gardner in CF (1.73) = 5.2 WAR. That’s toward the lower end of our “Jeter in CF” spectrum- if Jeter is better than -7.5 runs with the glove in center (which seems reasonable), the O-Cab/Jeter combo is still preferable.
This is all hypothetical (and never going to happen), but it is fun to think about.
by David Golebiewski on Feb 5, 2009 1:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
it is fun
Hey, I still neurotically go through batting orders try and figure out which is the most optimal, even though that matters almost not at all…
By the way, I’m still new here, sorry I didn’t link to your earlier analysis of Oliver Perez in my last post. I’ll go back and correct that in just a minunte…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 5, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
CF
If they were to go with Melky/Jeter for 2/3 of the season, what type of CF would they need to pick up at the deadline to get equal value?
by rwperu34 on Feb 5, 2009 5:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Type
So you’d get a full season of Jeter at SS, 3.47 WAR and 2/3 ofa season of a 0.42 Melky worth 0.28, putting you at 3.75 plus whatever you get in 1/3 of a season from whoever you pick up at the deadline.
If Jeter is a…
-12.5 run defender: 4.79 WAR you would need to find a 3.06 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
-10 run defender: 5.04 WAR, you would need to find a 3.87 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
-7.5 run defender: 5.29 WAR, you would need to find a 4.62 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
-5 run defender: 5.54 WAR, you would need to find a 5.37 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
-2.5 run defender: 5.79 WAR, you would need to find a 6.12 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
Average defender: 6.04 WAR, you would need to find a 6.87 WAR CF to equal Jeter/O-Cab
According to ESPN FA tracker, Jim Edmonds is the best/only CF still available. Does he project to be worth 2.21 WAR? Probably not, but he might be a better place holder than Melky Cabrera and I’m sure he’d be cheaper than O-Cab.
by rwperu34 on Feb 5, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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