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This is the third in a series of what will be six posts going through the MLB division by division to see who has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Today's subject is the biggest division in baseball (even after the departure of CC Sabathia [har har har]): the NL Central.

Rankings and how I got 'em after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the main body)

• FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
  
• The projected 2009  for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
  
• Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's in order to account for spot starters as well.
  
• No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
• Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
  
• Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
• An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used,   adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
• Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
• Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
• Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher  at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Comment: Yeah... that's a good rotation, all right. "Big Z" gets a lot of press, and out of the Prior/Wood/Clement/Zambrano group, he's the only one still starting on a regular basis, but he looks like the #3 starter here. The projections say that the Dempster contract cool decent so far. I've always liked Ted Lilly, never quite sure why he changed teams so often; he got screwed in New York -- traded for Jeff Weaver, of all people. How'd that turn out? Rich Harden: Badass WAR in  155 IP; PECOTA and CHONE both like him, but ZiPS LOVES him, with a 2.47 projected FIP. We'll see. Betwen Harden and Milton Bradley, the joint potential for awesomeness and disappointment should make for an interesting summer on the North Side. Mitch Atkins is one of the rare players I've come across who actually projects as below replacement level (although it's so close that when the RAR/WAR conversion is made and rounded, it doesn't show).

Comment: Well, Ben Sheets is going to miss at least half the season anyway, but the sizable (ahem) hole left by C.C./CC Sabathia's departure is, um, big.  Still, this is an okay rotation.  Gallardo looks like a stud, and if they can get more innings out of him that will make a big difference. Manny Parra could also surprise, and seems in line for his luck to regress after an unfortunate 2008.

Comment: Wainwright = good. What a surprise. The Cardinals are going to need him to pitch more that 155, though. Chris Carpenter's issues are well-known. Cards fans just have to hope that he doesn't get on Tony LaRussa's bad side like so many decent veterans before him. I sometimes think I should have set the lgERA/RA higher, and Kyle Lohse projecting as a .523 pitcher is a good reason, but a 4.11 FIP is pretty good. His contract is certainly better than the very similar one given to Joel Pineiro the year before, but we aren't talking money in this series. OK group, but clearly below average. Way to get the most of Albert Pujols's prime, St. Louis front office.

Comment: It seems like I read something somewhere about this maybe being the best rotation in the division. Well, no, it isn't. It's more like average, but there are some good pitchers here, for sure. Edinson Volquez is the clear stud here, and is still young. Aaron Harang is another guy who had bad luck last year and should bounce back. As fellow Drivelinee David Golebiewski put it elsewhere, there is still hope for Homer Bailey, "but some of the shine is definitely off of his star."

Comment: Roy, Wandy, and a bunch of nothing. Time for pie.

Hey, did you know that Chris Sampson got married at the home plate at Enron Field Minute Maid Park? Former Royal Tyler Lumsden might have the worst projected WAR of any pitcher I've posted about in this series yet, which is tough to do in only 20 projected innings. I wonder if he'll actually pitch in the majors this season...

Comment: I know what it's like to cheer for losing/rebuilding teams, so I don't want to pile on. On the other hand, I don't want to just not comment. The new front office seems smart and stuff, and Dan Fox is one of the more respected sabermetricians out there. No one terrible here, but no one really special, either. Karstens and Ohlendorf seem decent enough (especially if Ohlendorf and sustain those numbers as a starter over a full season) in themselves (Tabata, etc. aside) to make the trading of Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady to the Yankees a win for the Pirates.

So, without any further ado...

Final Thoughts: The Cubs run away with this one, and no one else is particularly close. A "three division" division, with the Cubs, then the Reds, Cards, and Brewers all bunched together, then the Pirates and Astros. Well, sort of, as the Cards are closer ot the Astros then they are the Reds. What's sad for the Astros is that Oswalt projects as the second best starter in the division (other than Rich Harden), and the Astros starters still project as terrible overall.

Up Next: AL Central