A Rod's VOCR (Value Over Cody Ransom)
by David Golebiewski on Mar 9, 2009 5:47 AM PDT
in Sabermetrics
12 comments
With Alex Rodriguez set to undergo a surgical procedure on his hip that will sideline him for 6-9 weeks, the New York Yankees are obviously left with a huge void at third base. Just how much will A Rod's absence hurt the Yankees in the ultra-competitive, every-game-counts American League East? Here's a quick estimation of Rodriguez's VOCR (Value Over Cody Ransom). For the offensive projections, I used CHONE's wOBA forecast.
A Rod has averaged about 4.4 plate appearances per game over the past three seasons. If he misses all of April and half of May (40 games), here's the tally:
A Rod (based on 176 PA, or 4.4 PA times 40 games)
Offense: 12.6 runs
Defense: 0 (he's very close to average for his career)
Replacement: 5.9 runs
Position: 0.6
Total: 19.1 runs above replacement
Cody Ransom (based on 152 PA, or 3.8 PA times 40 games; Ransom would assuredly bat lower in the order and accumulate fewer plate appearances)
Offense: -4.4 runs
Defense: there's little to go on here. Let's say -2, based on limited big league work and mixed results in the minors
Replacement: 5 runs
Position: 0.6 runs
Total: -.8 RAR (Ransom is pretty much the definition of a replacement-level player)
This is an admittedly rough estimate, but A Rod's VOCR is 19.9 runs, or about two wins. If Rodriguez misses roughly a quarter of the season, his absence projects to cost the Yankees nearly two wins in the standings. Given how tightly bunched the AL East super powers are, that could be the difference between October baseball or an early tee time. Villanize the man at your own peril, Yankees fans.
0 recs |
12 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
LOL
With A-Rod out they will lose more then two extra games and to think otherwise if crazy.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Mar 9, 2009 3:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
2 wins is a lot. I think that’s about right.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Mar 9, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They shoulda signed Casey Blake when they had the chance
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 9, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JOE CREDE TOO
SHOULDA GITTERDUN CASHMAN!!!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on Mar 9, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait till
July 4th when the Yankee’s are ten games out of first. We will see how many games A-Rod missing will cost them.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Mar 9, 2009 8:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Last I checked
2 wins per quarter season over 1/2 season = 4 wins
by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 11, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-rod has more value than just his WAR
Taking him out of the lineup changes the whole dynamic of that offense. A-Rod, just by getting on base at the rate that he does, forces opposing pitchers to pitch worse to his teammates. Last year in the AL, pitchers allowed a .729 OPS with the bases empty, and a .773 OPS with runners on. The hitters behind A-rod would usually project to come up with over a 40% chance of runners being on base just because of A-rod. Cody Ransom might only get on base a .300 clip, so the chances of a hitter behind him coming up with runner(s) on base would be around 10% less than with A-rod. Using those numbers, we can expect that a random collection of hitters behind A-rod will have a .747 OPS, while that same collection of hitters behind Ransom will have a .742 OPS.
Someone smarter than me could do calculations to see how much those .005 points of OPS translate into runs over 1/4 of a season, I would bet it is over 1 win.
That is not even mentioning other things like an aggravated pitch count and lineup protection (I know that it is “proven” to be a myth, but I have to think that it at least plays a small role in a hitters success).
A-Rod has a lot more non-WAR value than most players. It is hard to quantify, but it must be taken into account when assessing his impact on the team. I doubt that it will cost the Yanks 10 games over 1/4 of a season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was around 4 wins.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 12, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A full win?
If A-Rod for Cody straight up is 2 wins per 1/4, is that .005 of OPS going to add up to another win?
by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 12, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was
that A-Rod has more of an affect on his teammates than a replacement player like Ransom does. I am having trouble quantifying it, but I know that it is there.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 14, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two wins is a pretty huge number for 40 games
I think that we sometimes have a tendency to overestimate the importance of any one particular player on a team’s overall win-loss record, given that there are 25 players all making contributions of varying degrees. A Rod’s absence will hurt greatly (the AL East has such a high threshold for contention), but his not being there won’t cause CC Sabathia to turn into a pumpkin or Mark Teixeira to cry himself to sleep and go 0-for-4.
Over a full season, A Rod would be worth 8 games more than a replacement level player. That’s a staggering number, and about as extreme as it gets for any player in the game. Two wins might not seem like a big figure for 40 games, but that’s a huge swing for one player on a 25-man team, missing a quarter of the season.
by David Golebiewski on Mar 10, 2009 7:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed
part of the problem with A-Rod’s studliness is that even if they came up with an aerage (2 WAR) player, that would only make up 0.5 wins difference… and the optins out there aren’t 2 WAR.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 10, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
put a $ value on it
According to Colin’s article at THT, if a marginal win cost $4.2M last year, we can say it costs about $4.6M this season. So two games = $9.2M. That’s a lot of money, even for the Yankees.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 10, 2009 8:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
