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Ryan Zimmerman got his contract with the Washington Natinals Nationals hammered out: $5 years, $45 million. The Nationals Journal gives specific details. Is this a good deal?

What are they paying for? Before the "big crash" most internet analysts were saying that the value of a free agent Win Above Replacment was about $4.8 to $5 million. I'll be a bit more conservative here and put it closer to $4.5 million. This was Zimmerman's first year of arbitration, so that's included in the deal. They are buying out all three of his arbitration years, which are usually weighed 40/60/80 when compared to free agent value, as well as two free agent years. An easy way to calculate the arbitration years rather than mutiplying his WAR by that amount is suggested by  Matthew Carruth in his analysis of the deal at FanGraphs: simply count them as .4, .6, and .8 years. So the total deal should be his value of 3.8 years on the free agent market.

While I haven't redone my free agent salary chart since the Big Crash, we can still get a good estimate.  Using Tom Tango's 2008 salary chart (based on $4.4M/WAR), we can see that he's being valued at about 2.75 WAR or so, as Carruth also notes.

On the bright side for the Nationals, that chart is designed for free agents, and assumes a 0.5 WAR decline a year. That's a good rule of thumb for free agents who are usually at least in their late 20s.. Zimmerman, however, won't be 25 until September, so it seems premature to start docking him 0.5 WAR, certainly before he reaches 27. So the Nationals are probably getting an addtional 1-1.5 WAR over the life of the contract. But is he at least a 2.75 WAR player?

Offense: Despite his seeming offensive decline the last three years, most projection systems (taking into account the overall offensive drop-off in the majors during that same period) are fairly optimistic above his offense going forward. CHONE has him at about +20 runs/600 plate appearances (.370 wOBA), while ZiPS and PECOTA (my own woBA conversion of the latter) have him about at about +16 runs/600 (.360 woBA). Brian Cartwright's Oliver is less impressed, giving Zimmerman a .345 wOBA, or about +7/600. Averaging them all, we end up with about +15 runs above average for offense.

Defense: Zimmerman has a reputation as a defensive standout. The Fans Scouting Report agrees with or reflects that reputation, rating him as one of the best defenders in baseball, regardless of position. His (BIS-based) Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games from 2006-2008 fluctuate a bit: 4.7, 16.5, and 3.4 runs above average per 150 games. John Dewan's plus/minus system has him at +10 plays ( about +8 runs) in 2008, +21 plays (+17 runs) in 2007, and +2 player (+2 runs) in 2006. Based on just those figures, you'd feel pretty comfortable saying that he's at least a +5 defender. But it is interesting that Rally's TotalZone sees a different story. Rally has him at -2 in 2006, +6 in 2007, and -8 in 2008, and projects him as a -1 defender overall. Defensive metrics have their issues, of course, and I'm hardly qualified to adjudicate this "dispute." Let's just call it a +5 -- the Fans love him, even if TotalZone doesn't, and a little regression to the mean never hurt anyway.

So what's the deal? Take the +15 offense, and +5 defense, add in +2.5 for the positional adjustment for third base, then add in 18 runs (not 20, in order to account for the relative talent level of the NL and AL)  for replacement level over the 150 games we've been using as his playing time: 15 + 5 +2.5 + 18 = 40.5. That's about 4 wins. Looks back at the beginning of the article, we said that he'd need to be a 2.75 WAR player in order for this deal to be worth it for the franchise. While one never knows what will happen down the road, at the moment, this does, in fact, appear to be a very good deal for a franchise desparately in need of some good news.