The Player that was, the Manager that is, and the Executive that isn't
Here's a little graph and some thoughts (non Yankees, Red Sox, Dodger, or Jake Peavy-related) before the (for some, long) weekend.
Take a moment to revel in the greatness revealed at Sean Smith's historical Wins Above Replacement page for Mr. Hinch. The young Hinch was a defensive master in 1998 at +1, and can anyone forget his 1999, when he turned on the wheels and avoided double plays and ran the bases at a madman's pace? The majesty of his 9 plate appearances in 2000 speaks for itself.
Of course, he's now the manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In a rare move, Hinch, who had been running Arizona's minor league system, was tabbed to replace Bob Melvin, who had been fired after the Diamondbacks' miserable start.
I'll leave it to you to look up all the thoughts about Hinch's total lack of managerial experience, whether he was "jumping rank" or whatever. If he's the best person for the job, all those niceties go out the window. And if he's a bad manager, well, there are a lot of "terrible" managers who had "prior managerial experience." But that isn't what I want to discuss.
We know that, for the most part, baseball managers don't make that much of a difference. Don't get me wrong, the worst manager in the majors (or minors, probably) is better than me, but just like with players, our baseline isn't "no manager" or "someone completely useless," but a "replacement level" manager. The different between the best and worst manager is probably about 4 wins a season. And that's at most -- it's really hard to tell, since the "great managers," to everyone's surprise, coincidentally had the best players. But my purpose here isn't even to reiterate the usual sabermetric stuff about the relative importance of the baseball managers.
Rather, my point is this: we know that good front office staff is way more important that managers when it comes to baseball teams. Hinch was part of the player development staff that was responsible for Arizona's excellent collection of young (if currently underperforming) talent. So my question is this: why make him the manager if he's in a more important position to begin with? We know that almost every manager is "hired to be fired." Few "go out on top." So it is more likely than not Hinch will eventually not be the manager of the Diamondbacks. And usually, managers don't get shifted to another part of the organization, they're gone. There are exceptions, I'm sure, and maybe Arizona's front office and Hinch have a plan, but they're rare...
So the question is this: Hinch maybe very well be a good manager (whatever that means), but is the real problem that the Diamondbacks have put him in a less important position, and one that, in the end, will result in a good executive being available to another team in a more important post down the road?
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I don't think that the spread in a managers impact is even 4 wins
All managers seem to be pretty crappy strategists. They all put Orlando Cabrera in the 2 hole, and put their closer in the 9th. I have yet to see one manager, besides maybe Manny Acta, who actually plays the probabilities and doesn’t go by their gut or the book (not the good one).
To me, the main impact that managers have is their ability to manage players. Over 162 games, it’s important to keep everyone together and defuse conflicts that can negatively affect the club. However, short of that, I don’t see how much of an impact managers actually have, especially when they all seem to do the same thing.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 22, 2009 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So I guess I disagree with your conclusion
If all managers are basically the same, then a guy like Hinch, who seems like he might be willing to think progressively, could have a large impact relative to the other managers in the league.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 22, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for reading! I thought no one would on Friday
I didn’t really have a conclusion. My thoughts on the impact of mangers is that, yeah, some are probably better than others. Hitting a decent guy 2nd, bringing the closer in before the 9th, those are differences that might help a team by a few wins a year. But that’s the “max” benefit Ito which we’re referring.
Having said that, my sort-of-speculative-point (lost in my vagueness, I know) is that if Hinch is realy good in player development, which we know is way more important than managing, wouldn’t it be better for the organization to keep him there?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 22, 2009 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
granted that we don't know for sure how good he was
just that we know that player development is more important to an organization than the difference between the managers.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 22, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
definitely
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 24, 2009 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a DBacks fan
I’m just glad Melvin was fired, he used to make the stupidest decisions day after day. They hired Hinch because he’s familiar with most of the players and after a slow start, we’re turning the corner somewhat. I know it’s not due to him but still…
What I like about him is he’s not afraid to put a closer in a non save, high leverage situation, and have a lesser guy close with a 3 run lead, and other stuff.
by paqs on May 22, 2009 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lucky you
I steal have to deal with Tony and his “infielders in the outfield” crap.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 23, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

![Yeah, if this managing thing doesn't work out, I have enough stashed away that I skimmed from Dominican prospects saved from my playing days to make my getaway to Bulgravia. [Yes, it's a joke.]](http://cdn0.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/31436/127609_correction_nationals_diamondbacks_baseball.jpg)













