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Boy, Did that Strict Pitch Count Ever Screw Up Nolan Ryan's 1987


In a recent article (co-written as an exchange with Bill James), Joe Posnanski makes the following remark:

[Nolan] Ryan believed that the game belonged to the starting pitcher. It was his. Ryan HATED 1987 -- that was the year when Houston manager Hal Lanier put Ryan on a strict pitch count (Ryan did not complete a single game that year). On one level it worked: Ryan led the league in ERA. On another, it did not: Ryan finished the season 8-16. You have to think that year is part of what's driving him to recapture a little bit of the 1970s.

This is in the context of Posnanski and James' celebration of Nolan Ryan's challenging of the current conventional wisdom regarding pitchcounts. When I read it, I was curious to find out just how awful Ryan's 1987 turned out to be.

Star-divide

Let me make clear right from the start: I'm not here to offer any sort of opinion about pitch counts or Nolan Ryan's opinions on them in general. (Here is one interesting discussion.) I was more interested to see just how "bad" Ryan's 1987 turned out to be, given that Posnanski implies that it is one thing driving him to make over the Rangers' pitching philosophy. So, withouit any further ado, here's a a chronological graph of Ryan's career using... you guess it, his Pitching Wins Above Replacement according to Rally.

Ryan_rally_war_medium

I realize that's difficult to read (you can click on it to get a close up), but I think the gist is pretty clear -- whatever Ryan may or may not feel about 1987, according to Rally's calculations, it was actually the 5th most valuable season of his long (if overrated) career. Moreover, 1987 was the most valuable season he'd had since 1977, and he never was quite as valuable again. Sure, he went 8-16, but, I dunno, maybe an offense that was the second worst in baseball had something to do with it (yes I realize that wRAA for that period isn't park-adjusted; however, when I ran my own linear weights with park adjustments, the 1987 Astros [at -67] still came out second worst to the Dodgers -at 86].).

As I wrote above, I don't have an educated opinion on pitch counts. Still, while he doesn't quote Ryan directly, it is interesting that Posnanski picks 1987 as a year that heavily influenced Ryan's opposition to pitch counts, and it turns out to have been one of Ryan's best seasons. Maybe it's the 8-16 record that sticks out. I can only assume that Nolan Ryan, as the President of a professional baseball club, is smart enough not to use pitcher wins as a measuring stick of any kind of significance... right?

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fair enough

I wasn’t concluding anything, of course — I was just noting the curiousity that this turned out the be one of the best seasons of his career — and probably the best of the last 15 seasons of his career.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

It kind of seems like you’re hinting that the pitch count and his success had a causal relationship, though. There could be a number of factors there. Plus, 2 years and 4 years later, he approached the same level of productivity without the “benefit” of pitch counts.

I really would be interested in why he hated the pitch counts so much. It could just be that they were his games.

by NoNameOnCard on Jun 17, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You'll just have to take my word for it

I don’t really have an opinion on pitch counts — as I said in the piece. It was more about Poz singling out 1987 as somehow “deficient,” when in reality, it was one of Ryan’s better years.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I mised your overall point.

I guess I could see it as Poz deriding 1987 for the crappy W-L. From a pitcher’s perspective, though, the goal is to win the game. Saber guys argue that the goal is to prevent runs, and while technically true, most pitchers would rather give up 5 runs and win than give up 2 runs and lose.

It depends on whose perspective Poz is arguing from.

by NoNameOnCard on Jun 17, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's simply speculating on the source of Ryan's distaste for pitch counts

since ‘87 was the first time Ryan had ever been put on one (I don’t know if it was the only one or if it continued).

Again, I didn’t have a big point to make. I don’t know if pitch counts helped Ryan or not in 1987. But the implication is that, in 1987 at least, they hurt him. I don’t think that stands up to the objective evidence.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think *hurt* is the right characterization.

Unless your quote is taken out of context, Poz points out “two levels” – one on which the pitch counts “worked” and one on which the pitch counts didn’t. It doesn’t seem like he’s trying to build a case one way or the other. From what I understand, that season is the only season in which Ryan was ever on a strict pitch count.

Obviously, Poz’s use of W-L record for his “didn’t work” justification is pretty weak.

Whether or not it hurt or helped or worked or didn’t work, Nolan obviously hates strict pitch counts.

by NoNameOnCard on Jun 17, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For Ryan

Or any pitcher that was comfortable pitching late into games and had the arm to do so, I would think that a pitch count would make him worry about how many pitches he threw in innings 1-5, and he concentrated on that instead of just doing his job on the mound. Is there any evidence of him ever being on a pitch count before?

Also, if your arm is strong enough to throw 120 pitches, couldn’t you increase your physical output in the 100 pitches and be more effective?

Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids. Add on me on Twitter: ScottASpecht

by TexasAsfan on Jun 20, 2009 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know

it definitely sounds like 1987 was his first season

Like I said, I don’t have an opinion on pitch counts in general, but whatever effect the pitch count may or may not have had on his “concentration,” the evidence above shows that 1987 was pretty clearly Ryan’s best season in years…

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 20, 2009 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You better be careful

…it was actually the 5th most valuable season of his long (if overrated) career.

He’ll put you in a headlock for this and you can just ask Ryan Ventura what happens. He’s been in Omaha doing some broadcasting if you would like to get a hold of him.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Jun 17, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: You better be careful

I was hoping for a George Brett style warning.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 18, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you know how many wins Nolan Ryan had?

324!

(holds up three fingers)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 18, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know how many TDs Tim Tebow had?

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jun 18, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting, if not altogther unsurprising

Nolan’s old schooly, so his disappointment is to be expected, I think. We’ll probably never be able to distinguish/identiify causation/correlation with pitch counts and success of his 1987 campaign.

That said, while we can’t say definitively that pitch counts helped him, we should definitely be able to say that they did not hurt him (literally and figuratively). So, that’s something.

by marbotty on Jun 28, 2009 8:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

and not 'altogther' unsurprising

that I had a typo during a D_F story. it was destiny, i think

by marbotty on Jun 28, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ineded

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 28, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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