LC: How's Kerry Wood Working Out?
Long time, readers. Soon I'll have a full update, but I'd like to toot my own horn a bit about Kerry Wood. You see, I wrote a much-lambasted article that essentially said that Kerry Wood was the following:
- A significant injury risk
- A relief pitcher coming off a "career" year (as a reliever, anyway)
- Not worth $10M/year for 2 years
- Not worth signing compared to Rafael Furcal (and in hindsight, Orlando Hudson)
Let's take a look at their stats, shall we?
And for fun, their WARs:
- Kerry Wood: -0.1
- Orlando Hudson: +2.1
- Rafael Furcal: +0.7
Eric Seidman said this about the deal:
My evaluation yesterday suggested Kerry Wood is a +1.4 win player for 2009, factoring in his run prevention skills as well as the leverage of the innings he will pitch in a new, and offensively superior, league. This would place his fair market value in the vicinity of $6-8 mil. A 2-yr deal in this regard should have been worth $14 mil. It is now being reported that his deal with the Indians is closer to 2-yr/$20 mil, meaning the Indians will be paying him over $7 mil/win relative to the average annual value. Wood will provide stability at the position given the revolving closers door for the Indians this past season, but he will have to vastly outdo his projection to merit being paid that much per win. Not even the overvalued K-Rod is receiving that much per win with his new deal.
Sounds about right.
If what we wanted was a guy who can throw in the mid-high 90's without the ability to locate his secondary pitch, I'm pretty sure David Aardsma was available for nothing.
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Comments
No to gloat though...
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 20, 2009 9:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty outlandish, suggesting that a closer shouldn't be paid 10 million dollars per year.
Now you’ll never get into the BBWAA
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by Jack Moore on Jun 21, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can think of a few that I would pay $10m/year.
Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Jun 21, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised that B.J. Ryan isn't on your list.
[insert “not” joke here]
by NoNameOnCard on Jun 22, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mariano would have actually been a decent deal at $10M
$15M, not so much
still like him, though
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 22, 2009 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is it that I thought DF wrote the original article...
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jun 21, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Shocking how right some people are
“About Kerry Wood
I like the guy and I want to see him do well but with his mechanics, past injuries and a significantly tougher league will most likely see this guy appear to have an awful season and make this contract look down right atrocious”.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Jun 23, 2009 9:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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