He's Back Baby!
You all know the back story. After pitching all of his first 20 seasons with the Braves, amassing a total of 64.8 wins per Baseball Projection and helping lead them to many, many playoff appearances; John A. Smoltz signed an incentives laden 1 year deal with the Red Sox (simultaneously causing mass riots in Atlanta) after missing most of 2008 with shoulder surgery. Despite his advanced age, It was largely regarded as a great low-risk high reward signing for the Sox. Smoltz was still an amazing pitcher, posting FIP's of 3.44, 3.21 and 2.35 (25 innings) in his previous three seasons; and the projection systems though him capable of a low to mid 3's FIP this year. The main question was whether or not Smoltz would be able to come back from injury. Well, after some long and arduous rehab and a couple of weeks spent in the minors, Smoltz was finally able to get back to the bigs and got to face the Nationals in his first start back.
The results... pretty damn good. He allowed 7 hits and 5 runs, but that doesn't do justice to how good he looked. His struck out 5, walked just 1 and didn't allow any home runs; his FIP for the game was 1.80. But how was his stuff? Was he still attacking hitters like he always did? Is the he John Smoltz of last year, or did he finally realize how old he was and started pitching like Jamie Moyer. Click on the full article to see a Pitchfx breakdown of Smoltzy's start and have all of those questions answered and more.
It's a little fuzzy, but if you click on it you can see a larger image.
This is my first attempt at creating my own Pitchfx Flight Paths, just one of Harry Pavlidis' many contributions to mankind. Hopefully this gives a better representation of his stuff than the standard vertical/horizontal movement graphs.
Smoltz has been throwing for 21 years now, and he hasn't changed much. Fastball, slider, curveball, change. The big 4. As you can see, his stuff still looks pretty good. He was able to throw the fastball in the low 90's, topping out at 93.5 MPH. The speed differential's remained intact on all of his pitches, and he got good movement on his curve and slider. Here is how his pitches this start compared to last year:
| 2008 | Yesterday | |
| FB Speed (MPH) | 92.1 | 91.64 |
| FB V-Movement (Inches) | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| FB H-Movement (Inches) | 6.7 | 5.15 |
| CH Speed | 84.6 | 85.77 |
| CH V- Movement | 4.9 | 3.89 |
| CH H-Movement | -7.7 | -6.93 |
| SL Speed | 85.5 | 84.51 |
| SL V-Movement | 2.8 | 2.61 |
| SL H-Movement | 3.2 | 3.83 |
| CU Speed | 77.5 | 77.73 |
| CU V-Movement | 4.3 | 3.36 |
| CU H-Movement | 6.5 | 6.16 |
As you can see, there is not much change in his stuff. His velocity is virtually the same on all pitches and there are no drastic changes in movement either. Also, you have to remember that this is his first major league start in over a year, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a slight decline in stuff.
Smoltz was always a guy who would go right after hitters, and with his stuff, why not. He would typically be among the leaders in Strike%, and that would allow him to go later into games. Let's check on his location by pitch type in yesterday's start:
Very, very nice strikezone plot here. Very few pitches on the middle of the plate and a lot on the edges. His Strike% this game was a fantastic 69%, compared to just over 65% last year and 67.5% the year before. He allowed 7 hits, but 3 of them were on ground balls. He also allowed 6 liners, so you couldn't really say he got that unlucky either. However, with the Red Sox solid defense, you want him attacking the zone and not walking hitters.
Anyway, I'm happy that Smoltz is back. He was always one of my favorite pitchers, and I am excited to watch him pitch again. The fact that his stuff and command appeared to be right at his previously established levels is great news for the Sox. If he is able to pitch like this the rest of the year, it would allow them to trade away Penny for a shortstop or simply stockpile prospects for longer lasting domination. Either way, they are likely a much improved team with Smoltz back on the mound.
2 recs |
5 comments
Comments
Well Done
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 26, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
cool
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 26, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dig the photo in the flight path
Awesome idea.
by Harry Pavlidis on Jun 27, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 27, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully someone has posted a link to this on OTM to calm down the masses...
Nope, they didn’t.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 29, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 














