Ryan Langerhans

#0 / Right Field / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Feb 20, 1980

As you've heard by now (since it happened two days ago), the Greatest Trade in the History of the Blogosphere has gone down: Ryan Langerhans, down on the farm for the Nationals AAA affiliate, was traded for classic replacement-level scrub Michael Morse. There are many angles here -- why every team in the league let Langherans pass through waivers this past offseason, why the Nationals felt they needed Mike Morse, or felt like they needed to get rid of Langerhans only to replace him with an eerily similar player at the cost of a prospect with some upside. I could go on and on as part of what Lookout Landing calls the "Insufferable blogosphere. We love talking about players like this more than I imagine you love reading about them. I apologize in advance." So do I. Elsewhere I've been (rightly) mocked for my offseason ranting Langerhans (as well as Russell Branyan -- boy, I sure was wrong about that guy, wasn't I!). But beyond the particulars of the trade, I'd like to offer a few short reflections on what the trade "means."

The Man gets married in style.

'cause it's so deep...

First, a quick scoop on the "other" guy in the trade. Mike Morse impressed a few people (mostly fantasy owners) in a brief callup for the Mariner in 2006. CHONE, ZiPS, and Oliver are less impressed, seeing him as a .313-.316 wOBA hitter, which comes out to about - 7 runs per 600 PAs. Coupled with poor defense both in the infield and outfield, the 27 year-old Morse is a 1 WAR (Win Above Replacement) bench player at best.

Our hero, Ryan Langerhans, on the other hand, is seemingly still suffering from the negative fallout from his 1.3 WAR 2007 which saw him traded twice in matter of weeks, going from the Braves to the As to the Nationals. But in 2005, in just over half a season of play (373 PA), he put up an impressive 2.3 WAR (a bit more than an average player would put up in a full season), followed by a 1.2 WAR 2006.  In very limited time in 2008, he still p;ut up 0.8 WAR.

For 2009, the CHONE, Oliver, and Zips see Langerhans as around a .327 wOBA player, which is about average this season, at about -1.5 runs. But his defense is where he really shines. Most of his sample size in the majors leagues is in left field, where his career UZR/150 is +18/160 games. Using data from the minor league, Rally's TotalZone has him at +9 on the corners and +2 in center. So, as a center fielder, per 150 games Langerhans projects as -1.5 hitting, +2 defense, +2.5 for CF, + 18 NL replacment level (since his projection is almost entirely on his time in the NL), for a total of 21 runs above replcaement -- about 2 WAR, or league average.

So basically, for the cost of a minor league journeyman, the Mariners got an alleged "journeyman" who projects as a league-average player (althogh some seen Langerhans as more of a 1-1.5 player himself, it's still a good deal) who will make the minimum.

Look, Langerhans is obviously no superstar. That's not the point .The point is that whether a team has resources to buy whateve free agents they need, or whether they have a great farm system, neither nor both can supply all of their needs. Even the Yankees operate on a budget, and most teams aren't the Yankees. The whole point of the concept of "replacement level" is to show that even average or below-average players have value, and it is an attempt to make sense of that value. We can talk about Langerhans worth to various teams, etc.. but while projections may be wrong, the point of F.A.T. (freely acquired talent) and near-F.A.T. is that even if Langerhans totally fails (projections are just "probability densities" as I've heard it put), the Mariners don't really lose out -- they didn't give up anything of significance to get him. They can just try again with someone else.

Long story short: isn't that smarter than taking a chance on a Barry Zito, Andruw Jones, Jose Guillen, Juan Pierre, Gary Matthews, Jr., or frankly, even Mr. Overrated Torii Hunter (whose contract will be an albatross before it's over)?

People can talk about buying stars or the farm system all they want. But between bricks, you've got to have mud. A GM who thinks he can get by without it, or, worse, pays for mud like it's oil isn't going to build a winner very often. It's still a bit early to celebrate Jack Zduasdlkfasdfnadsfnik as the next great GM, but this is one concept he seems to get so far.

And that's the signficiance of Ryan Langerhans. And Willy Aybar. And Gabe Gross. And Marco Scutaro. And Matt Murton? And...