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Lincecum Dominates the Cardinals

Yo, did you see me strikeout Pujols?  No the ball came in too fast.

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

Yo, did you see me strikeout Pujols? No the ball came in too fast.

Since the Cardinals have acquired DeRosa, they are 0-2 and have scored exactly 2 runs.  Kyle B. 1, Viva 0 (then again, Chris Perez almost killed a guy in his debut with the Indians).  Of course, having to face Tim Lincecum in 50% of those games certainly limits your ability to score many runs.

Yesterday, the aforementioned pitcher absolutely carved up the Cards lineup.  His final line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 95 pitches, 60 strikes.  That brought his season FIP to a Pedro-esque 2.00.  He has already been worth 4.8 WAR, which is worth roughly 21.5 million on the free agent market... in a half a season.  So far in his major league career, he has been worth 15.5 WAR in a little more than two seasons.  He throws 195 MPH, his curveball has 50 inches of break, and he once struck out Matt Weiters on 2 pitches.  

I could spend all day writing about how good Lincecum is, but I did want to take a look at his start against the Cards yesterday.  That of course means lots of graphs after the jump.

Star-divide

First of, flight paths:

Lincecum_flight_paths_medium

You can view a larger image here.

You can really see the power stuff that Lincecum has.  His curveball has almost no horizontal movement, however, it starts off on the same plane as his fastball and then drops like a rock.  Ditto with his changeup, which is almost 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball.  Fangraphs has his change worth 15.1 runs so far this year, making it the single best pitch in baseball!!!  Also, did I mention he threw in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97?  He'll throw his fastball about 60% of the time, and his change and curve about 20% of the time.

Here is his strikezone plot against the Cards, organized by pitch type:

Lincecum_location_medium

Here is a larger image.

Of course, when you have stuff like he does, you don't neccesarily have to nibble.  As you can see, he came right at the Cards hitters, throwing a lot of fastballs and changeups in the heart of the strikezone.  He threw a lot of curves low in the strikezone, but I remember that he generated a lot of swings and misses on those (*cough* *cough* Skip Schumaker).  So here is a strikezone plot based on the actual outcomes of each pitch:

Steike_medium

Once again, click here for a larger view.

So, I was right.  7 of his 13 swinging strikes (BTW, 13 is a collosal number for one start) were on pitches below the strike zone.  If you compare this graph to the one above it, you can see that most of them were on curves or changeups. 

This chart also represents the complete ineptitude of the Cardinals hitters over the past couple of months.  Even  considering that Lincecum is an amazing starter, they clearly should not have taken so many pitches down the middel, while also swinging at so much junk out of the zone. 

Now, akin to self flaggelation, I present to you his strikeout against Pujols in the first inning:

Pujols_medium

Even Pujols displayed poor plate discipline in that at bat.  He took a elevated fastball down the middle (although it was 97) and eventually whiffed on a curveball out of the strike zone. 

On a side note, this was the first time that Pujols has ever stricken out in a big league game.  In fact, after he swung and missed at that last nasty curve, Pujols jogged around the bases because that's what he was used to doing at the end of each at bat.  Pujols actually had a pretty good game though.  He lined out in the 4th and doubled in the 7th.

Overall, this was just another great start for Lincecum.  His WPA was .285, which was only the 6th best mark he has put up in a single start this year.  This kid is freaking good.  If he can stay injury free for the most part of his career (I believe his mechanics are view positively by Kyle, Trip and others), he has the ability to do great things.    

2 recs  |  Comment 38 comments

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Kyle B. 1, Viva 0 (then again, Chris Perez almost killed a guy in his debut with the Indians).

Sounds like Kyle B 2, Viva 0.

Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting

by Kyle Boddy on Jun 30, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

at least your fantasy team isn't so desparate that you picked up Chris Perez

any chance he gets saves this season?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wish I did relevant research

cool stuff again

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 9:27 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Naw

I like you’re stuff better, it’s always pretty original. The only things I can think to write about lately are these PITCHfx profiles. Actually, the graphs look kinda cool.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but Pitch f/x is relevant NOW

and could actually help a team

here’s a request for you or Jeff, maybe not in the right place. My favorite pitch is the changeup. I mean, I love the whole concept of a battter swinging way ahead. Maybe it’s been done before, but a post on the best fastball-change combos in the big leagues would be fun.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm working on something having to do with pitch sequence right now

I assume you are wanting to see which guys are best at using a changeup after a fastball, and fooling the hitters?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, whatever you think is cool

I don’t know that much about it.

But yeah, guys being way out in front of the ball is hilarious.

Except when it’s Alex Gordon. Then I run into the bedroom and pull the covers over my head.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of my friends is a Royal's fan

and he reaaaallllllyyyyyy hates Alex Gordon. Of course he doesn’t know about Sabermetrics, and whenever I say that he a slightly above average player, he yells at me and said that they could have drafted Ryan Braun instead. Do all Royals fans have an irrational hatred of Gordon because he didn’t live up to his draft status?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of them.

Yes. But they are also the same guys that support Guillen and Olivo above all, so it is all taken with a grain of salt.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 30, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I personally have an unfounded faith in Gordon becoming a 5 WAR player still

although I also think that ~4 WAR is still pretty realistic, if he stays healthy (no problem given KC’s crack medical staff), which would be pretty decent. Of course, that still won’t be good enough for people, since he’ll always be compared to Longoria. And even if he makes up the difference with Braun with his position and defense (which isn’t unrealistic), the hitting disparity (people will ignore the league difference as well) will make things rough on Alex.

The injury this year doesn’t help. What’s interesting is that people miss both FanGrpahs and Rally haev Gordon supeior to Zimmerman last season, and Rally has Gordon superior to Braun in both 2007 and 2008.

It’s a combination of stupidity, hatred of strikeouts (he’s not even trying!!!111ONE), and, most of all, the “next George Brett” idiocy. Even before he played in the minors, it was clear that, in terms of hitting style, Gordon would be nothign like George Brett. Ironically (and again, in terms of style, not quality), he was always going to be more like Mike Schmidt — not usually a great average, lots of Ks, but good power and walks.

George Brett himself didn’t help by saying something like (at Gordon’s signing press conference), “By the time we’re done, I’ll be honored for people to compare me to Alex Gordon.” If I didn’t suspect that Brett was pretty “fueled up” at that point, I’d guess that George was purposely jackingup expectations and putting pressure on the kid who he thinks might take his place at “the Man” in KC (which is crazy, it would never happen).

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Swinging strike on a changeup that far inside on Pujols.

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jun 30, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pujols was distracted trying to figure out what the heck

“Mitch” from Dazed and Confused was doing on the mound

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't you mean he was waiting,

for Conor Oberst to play some of his new hits?

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jun 30, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at his strike zone plot-

Looks like the majority of his fastball are up in the zone. I would guess that makes his change and curve a lot more effective, especially with his curve being more 12-6 (according to the horizontal plot) than a sweeping curve.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 30, 2009 10:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess it would be a ton of work to look at his previous games

and see if this is a normal thing for Lincecum.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 30, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No not at all

The problem would be comparing him the the league as a whole to get a baseline. But once I get my SQL set up, it shouldn’t be too hard.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's right, you're a Mac guy, right?

So now your going to be a MySQL machine, huh?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 30, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm using MAMP

And Sequel Pro to make easy queries. I just don’t know how to get a pitchfx database, although I’m sure I could figure it out with a little perseverance.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just ask

Link

It is a squel dump so if you followed Sky’s column, import it just like databank dataset. It is updated daily and has 2007 and 2008 also. Not all pitch types are set for earlier dates.

Any questions just let me know.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 30, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is update at 2 MST. If the game is not available from gameday then, no data

You might not always get the previous day’s data each time. MLB is pretty unreliable.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 30, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll live, thanks a lot for the info

Wow, Sequel is being really slow.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On another related note...

Do you know how to transport Excel files into Sequel?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes. here is the basics, let me know if you have any problem

1. Save Excel as csv, if multiple sheets, each sheet needs to be saved as its own csv.
2. I am not for sure the comands, but MAMP, but you will need to create a table and all the columns in the new csv.
3. Import csv
4. Enjoy

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 30, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, looking at a game on April 7 from Brooks Baseball shows this:

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jul 1, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome.

I was about to go through baseball reference and brooks baseball to look myself, but I’ll be patient and let you check it out.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showforum=129

by Warden11 on Jul 2, 2009 5:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's basically what I was going to do

So if you have time, you should knock yourself out.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 2, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Viva, a man after my own heart

4 graphs

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 30, 2009 1:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There is like columns and stuff

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 30, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why, why, does he have to be on the Giants?

He even wore stirrups at one point. :(

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 30, 2009 9:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Viva,

You’re being a little too hard on the cards hitters here, as far as swinging and missing out of the zone. Lincecum usually gets those with the curve and change—particularly the change. He has two different curve balls he utilizes, btw (one is quicker and tighter, and the other is bigger and slower).

That change up is just filthy. Not only is the arm action good, with excellent speed difference from the fastball, but its dive is hard and late. It looks like a strike, and a fastball for much of reaction time of the hitter. I’ve seen nearly every Lincecum start the last two years (which is the time frame he’s really been using the change), and I think i’ve only seen it hit well twice, no exaggeration. Last year, before the scouting reports got around about his change, the reaction hitters would have to the pitch was hilarious: flail and look at Lincecum like WTF was that?!

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Jul 1, 2009 2:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

to clarify: the ‘hit well twice, no exaggeration’ was for the normal path of the pitch (starting lower part of the zone but ending either below, or just at the bottom). If it gets up (though still hard to hit), it is a different story.

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Jul 1, 2009 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're completely right

If you didn’t notice, I am a Cards fan though, so I think it’s okay if I rag on them a little after a 2 hitter. Lincecum was absolutely nasty, and his change up seems like a great pitch for the reasons you mentioned (and if you’ll look at the flight paths, it stays on the same plane as the fastball, and then drops), but still, 2 goddamn hits?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 1, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I want to know

is how the hell did I get drafted over this guy?

by Luke Hochevar on Jul 10, 2009 4:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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