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Future's Game Pitch f/x

Amidst all of the hubbub surrounding the All Star game and the Home Run Derby, you may not have known that some baseball's best prospects played in an All Star game of their own.  For anyone who missed it, Jim Callis of Baseball America has a nice summation.  The coolest thing to come from that game was that MLB recorded Pitch f/x data.  Given the fact that each pitcher only pitched in a couple of innings at most, we don't get a huge sample size of data to work with; however, it should be enough to see how some of the more interesting, and previously undocumented, prospects looked through the eyes of a computer.

The guys I wanted to look at most are Orioles' prospects Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, Phillies' prospect Kyle Drabek, flame throwing Neftali Perez Feliz of the Rangers, and Cardinal's reliever Francisco Samuel.  Of course, their were many other top prospects that pitched in the game, including Mat Latos and Jarrod Parker, however; those mentioned above were the ones who held the most interest for me.  If anyone would like to see someone else analyzed, you can make a request in the comment's section.   

(Note: As a piece offering to Kyle for not posting in a week, this post will be very, very long.  Enter at your own peril)

Star-divide

First let's take a look at RHP Chris Tillman.  A top prospect with the Mariners, he was traded away by Dayton Moore Bill Bavasi to the Orioles along with Adam Jones, George Sherill and two other prospects (seriously, holy crap).  In AAA this year, he had been absolutely dominating with a 4.00 K:BB ratio and a 2.60 FIP.  In his 1 inning of work in the future's game, he gave up 2 hits, 1 walk and 2 runs.  Obviously not the best performance, but given the small sample size, his previous domination and the quality of competition, you should take it with a grain of salt.  Let's take a look at his pitches to see what he throws:

Chris_tillman_medium

I'm not the best person to talk to when it comes to classifying pitches, but it's pretty clear what's going on here.  Out of the 25 pitches he threw, 4 of them were curveballs, 3 were changeup and the rest were fastballs.  Tillman has always been praised for his stuff, and it's easy to see why here.  His fastball averaged just under 94 MPH, and he throws it pretty straight.  He has a changeup, that's nearly 15 MPH slower, with nearly identical movement to the fastball.  His curve also looks like a dominating pitch, with almost perfect 12:6 movement and very good velocity to boot.  Here is his flight paths for a better representation of that stuff:

Crhist_tillman_medium

There's not much else to say here.  You can see that his curve has enormous break, especially in comparison to his fastball.  It's also a good 15 MPH slower.  Again can see how little horizontal movement it has as well.  I'm not a scout, so you can take this with a big grain of salt, but this just looks l filthy pitch and one that could easily be an out pitch at the major league level.  His change and fastball look pretty solid, with the former having a pretty decent amount of break.

Now let's so how he was able to locate his pitches.  Again, given the sample size in question, this will almost 100% not be conclusive of anything, but it should still be fun to look at:

Location_tillman_medium

... feel free to make your own conclusions.  Just remember that this is from the catchers point of view.

 

 

Now let's take a look at one of the other Orioles big three pitching prospects, LHP Brian Matusz.  In 26.1 innings in AA this year, he had struck out 32, walked 6 and allowed 1 (!!!) ER.  His FIP this year is 1.57.  And that's coming off a season in which he put up a 2.91 FIP in A+.  Suffice to say, this guy is like "holy crap" good, and he is only 22 years old.  He only threw 13 pitches in the game, pitching 1 inning while allowing 1 hit, 1 walk and 1 ER.  Let's see if we can determine what he threw:

Brian_matusz_pitches_medium

Here is where the small sample size really nips us in the butt.  Various scouting reports confirm that he throws a curve, but he clearly didn't throw one in this game.  From the above graph, it appears that he throws a 2 seam and 4 seam fastball, and a change.  Given the uncertainty of the pitch classifications, it seems foolish to do flight paths.  I would really appreciate it if any O's fans, or anyone else who has seen him pitch extensively, could give a scouting report.  Obviously he is one of the best prospects in the game, and it sucks that he didn't pitch more in this game.  

 

Now let's take a look at RHP Neftali Feliz.  As a 21 year old in AAA, he more than held his own with a 2.88 FIP in 69.1 innings.  His K:BB ratio wasn't anything special at 2.29; however, he only allowed 1 home run.  Given his career home run rate in the minors (6 in 273 innings), there is reason to believe that it might be sustainable.  Anyway, he pitched 1 inning, not allowing a hit or a run, while striking out 2 hitters and walking 1.  The good thing was that he threw a reasonably high ammount of pitches in this game, 22, so we should be able to get a decent sample of what he throws:

Feliz_medium

Again, usual "vivaelpujols sucks as pitch classification" caveats aside, it's pretty clear what he threw in that game: fastball, curve, change.  He averaged 98.5 with the fastball, while getting a lot of tail to it as well.  His change was faster than a lot of guys fastballs, and it had a lot of sink and tail to it as well.  I would love to see a clip of his changeup, as it seems like a filthy pitch.  He also threw a curveball or slider, with a small ammount of vertical and horizontal movement.  It isn't a huge breaking pitch, but given the 20 MPH speed differenttial in comparison to his fastball, it should be a very good pitch in the majors.  Now let's look at flight paths:

Feliz_paths_medium

Again, you can see how much movement the fastball has.  The change stayed on the same plane as the fastball until about 40 feet or so, bu then it stayed straight while the fastball tailed towards the third base side.  His curve again looks like a solid pitch.  It doesn't have a ton of movement, and it isn't very "attached" to the fastball, yet the speed differential on the two pitches can only be a plus.

While Feliz is obviously known for his stuff, his control has never been his strongsuit.  His career walk rate in the minors is a lofty 4.28; however, given his ridiculously low home run rate, I doubt he throws too many pitches right down the middle.  Let's see how he was able to command his pitches in the Futures Game:

Feliz_location_medium

So it seems my hypothesis was correct, at least for this game.  He threw a lot of pitches out of the zone, also a love of nasty pitches on the black.  I am very encouraged that out of the 5 offspeed pitches he threw, 4 of them were down.  Not hanging you offspeed pitches is a great way to have success in the majors.

Of course, the Rangers are doing all they can to mismanage this kids career, but if he is able to stick in the rotation, with his stuff, he has almost unlimited potential.

Don't believe me?  Check out how he demolished Desmond Jennings (gameday is awesome!)

Feliz_jennings_medium

He didn't throw anything resembling a hittable pitch in that count, yet threw enough strikes to get the batter down in the count.  Then he threw a 100 MPH fastball up and in... nuff said.

 

Next, let's look at the only Cardinals pitcher who participated in the event, RHP Francisco Samuel.  He had been struggling as the closer in AA this year, with a 4.70 FIP and a ugly 7.94 BB/9; however, he is only 22 and did strike out 10.59 batters per 9, so he does have potential.  

In the Futures Game, he pitched... well, he got an out.  Otherwise, he allowed a home run to Eric Young and did not strike out a batter while walking 2.  Thankfully, he was so bad that he need 14 pitches to get 1 out, so we can get a decent sample of his pitches:

Samuel_medium

This is another easy one.  He threw a hard fastball with a little bit of tail on it, and hard slider with almost no movement.  The speed differential is almost non existent on the high and low end velocities.

Suffice to say, between his limited stuff and his awful command, he doesn't seem like a very good pitcher right now.  I hope that he has another pitch, hopefully one with a little more speed differential in comparison to his fastball, because with his current skill set, I really don't know how he can be a successful pitcher in the majors.  The one thing that he does well is keep the ball on the ground, with over a 50% career ground ball rate in the minors.  He is also just 22, so he still may have some improvement left in him.

Anyway, I'm kinda pissed that this is the most All Star worthy pitcher the Cards have in their system, so I not gonna do a flight path for Samuel.  Take that jerk.

 

Finally, let's take a look at Phillie's top pitching prospect, RHP Kyle Drabek.  At 22 years old, he was pitching quite well in AA with a 3.31 FIP.  He pitched very well in the Futures Game, striking out one in a perfect inning of work.  Unfortunately, he only threw 9 pitches:

Drabek_stuff_medium

His fastball was pretty straight but he threw it very hard, topping out at 96.4 MPH.  He then appears to have throw a curve ball (or really downbreaking slider) and a changeup.  Both of those pitches appear to be plus pitches, but given that he only threw 3 offspeed pitches, it's hard to know for sure.  

 

Anyway, I'm getting tired and don't want to turn this into a novel, so I'll leave you with some witty conclusions:

  • The Orioles are going to be very good in a couple of years.  In addition to the two pitchers I profiled here today, they also have Jake Arrieta, who is holding his own in AAA at age 22.  Given all of there young talent on the current roster, and the potential in the farm, this team definitely has a chance to be a contender. 
  • The Cardinals should probably re-sign Joel Pineiro.  I'm not usually a big fan of giving 30+ year olds big contracts after a breakout season (d'oh, Lohse!), but given the Cards dearth of pitching prospects, it should probably be considered. 
  • Neftali Feliz is amazing...

Again, there were many other pitchers to pitch in this game (alhthough most didn't throw that many pitches), so if anyone else has any requests, don't be afraid to ask.

Poll
Who is the best pitching prospect who pitched in the Futures Game?
Brian Matusz
29 votes
Chris Tillman
36 votes
Neftali Feliz
75 votes
Other (specify)
23 votes

163 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

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Comments

Display:

Here's a video

where Feliz pitches and talks about is struggles with English.
Link

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Jul 16, 2009 2:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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