Two Curious Acquisitions: Hairston to Oakland, Freel to Kansas City; or, the Real Deal with Ryan Freel
[Note: I'm sure you're all thinking, "boy, that devil_fingers guy is really witty. But sometimes I wonder if there are thoughts he has that he isn't sharing on Driveline's website, or sometimes I just wonder what he ate during the day, or if the Royals are making so many great moves that d_f can't cover them all in two posting, or what his favorite Frank Zappa guitar solos are." Yup, that's what you're thinking. Well, think no longer, as I'm now on twtter: http://twitter.com/devil_fingers
Suicide now.]
I don't think we'll be covering every single trivial transaction, but when Ryan Freel is involved, you gotta comment. Oh, and the As acquired Scot Hairston.
Let's start with Freel.
That picture makes him look 48 years old.
As a summary, here's a simple analogy by way of Grass Creek, Wyoming:
Russell Branyan:Mike Jacobs::
Ryan Langerhans:Ryan Freel
So... Ryan Freel. Freel was a pretty good player for the Reds a few years ago. Playing a mixture of outfield, 2B, and 3B, Freel put up 2.5 WAR in 2004, 2.2 WAR in 2006, and a very impressive 3.9 in 2006 according to FanGraphs (Rally's numbers are similar, if not as high on 2006). But, well, 2006 was a long time ago. At 33, and coming off of some injuries... An quick in-season Marcels pegs Freel for a .310 wOBA the rest of the season. In the current run environment, that makes him about a -12 hitter over 700 PAs.
As for his fielding, Freel's been a super-utility guyf or years, and it's not clear how the Royals will use him. With CoCo Crisp out, the Royals have been using the underwhelming Mitch Maier in CF. While Freel's career UZR/150 numbers in CF are pretty good, most of that data is from a few years ago. Rally's TotalZone projections for Freel are probably more helpful here: -7 in CF, +1 in the corners. Hs TotalZone numbers and UZR taken together indicate a guy who's probably about avereage at this point at 2B and 3B.
His value as an infielder over a full season: -12 batting + 0 fielding + 2.5 positoin +20 NL replacment level (projections are based on playing tim in the NL) = +10.5 * 85% playing time = ~0.9 WAR player. Over half a season, that's less than half a win. I guess that's worth it as long as the PTBNL never sees any significant time in the majors.
So it's not terrible or great... but what, really, is the point? If the Royals are getting ready to trade David DeJesus (the current LF) or Mark Teahen (playing 3B until Alex Gordon gets back), maybe they need a placefiller for the rest of the season, and with Freel's salary being picked up, that's okay. He might make sense as a utility player for free... hey, good thing they already have an even worse guy like that in Willie Bloomquist. With CoCo Crisp's injury, maybe they're sick of Mitch Maier in CF... yeah, he isn't great, but what's the point? Mitch is probably a 4th OF at best (projects for average defense in CF with a bat bat), but isn't that just a younger, cheaper version of Freel? Even if the Royals are dumb enough to think they still have a chance at the playoffs, Freel is at best barely better than Maier. If they're rebuilding, why not find out what you have in Maier? As a Royals fan, I'm glad the front office got a guy for (seemingly) nothing, but given that he essentially has no upside, the whole thing seems pointless at best.
In summary -- we don't have the whole picture yet of what this trade means. At best, it's a "meh." At worst, it's a sign that the Royals front office doesn't understand the point of scouring the waivers wires or getting undervalued players to build for the future, rather than scrambling for 75 wins again. In other words, the same-old stuff from Dayton Moore.
Wow, I can't believe I spent all that time on Ryan Freaking Freel.
Given that this is another deal where the PTBNL is supposed to be significant, and given that I don't know much about the prospects included in the trade by Oakland (RHPs Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano), I don't have a whole lot to say about this beyond what Jack Moore wrote at Beyond the Box Score and Dave Cameron wrote at FanGraphs. The Padres shed $1.25M salary for some relievers... I'm not sure what the point is, especially given Hairston's price and ability.
Offensively, the quick Marcels gives him a .346 wOBA (although that's probably a bit low given that he's been in Petco Park the last two season). That's about a +10/700 bat. Rally's preseason TotalZone projections have him as a -8 CF, although UZR sees him as above average. Let's call him average. So +10 offense + 2.5 position + 0 defense +20 NL replacement level =32.5 * 85% playing time = ~2.7 WAR player. Yikes... for $1.25M a season and club control. Not sure what the point is for San Diego (who also gave up on Jody Gerut way too quickly). That better be one heck of a PTBNL. For Oakland, they get a guy who helps them now, can fill the void when, I mean IF (ahem) Matt Holliday gets traded, or could is even an attractive trade piece himself. I'm not sure what this means for Ryan Sweeney when he gets back for for Aaron Cunningham down the road. Billy Beane's team may not be racking up the wins the season, but his moves are setting up stuff down the road.
Summing up: the Cubs dump a superfluous player, the Padres shed a tiny salary for no good reason, the As pick up a good player on the cheap, and the Royals make another seemingly pointless trade. These front offices are what we thought they were.
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12 comments
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Comments
Aren't the A's ALWAYS setting up for the future?
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 7, 2009 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I thought about getting into that
but the post was over-long as it is
I guess they sort of thought this was their year, but the first half has not borne that out, unless they pull one of their early-00s mad dashes in the second-half.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So very sad that Beane can't seem to grasp the concept of the present.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 7, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, of all the years to build for the future.
This is probably the one.
---
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by Jack Moore on Jul 7, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy, I miss NewsRadio
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http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Jul 7, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The most underrated comedy of the 90s
I’ll take it over Seinfeld any day of the week.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2009 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hasn't Hairston also been heavily platooned for most of his career?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Jul 7, 2009 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hmmmm...
lately he has been. B-R has him with 812 career PA vs. RHP and 461 vs. LHP… that’s a bit slanted toward RHP, but not overly so.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean toward LHP
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Always been a Hairston fan
If all it took to get him were two minor league relievers and a Sean Gallagher-type pitcher, sheesh, even the Royals probably could have matched that.
But hey, Hairston never played for the Braves!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2009 7:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Between him and Langerhans
I think there’s some sort of “type” for undervalued OFers — thick necks.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freel never played for the Braves either
which is why, I assume, the Royals got him for nothing. Otherwise it would have cost Mark Teahen.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs













