MVP or Bust: For the Royals and Greinke, It's All Gravy From Here On Out

by devil_fingers on Aug 31, 2009 6:19 AM PDT in Sabermetrics Comment 8 comments

Here is the picture I wanted to use, but I'm trying to stay classy. Also, since I deleted the AP caption, you should know that this photo was taken AT A BASEBALL GAME.

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Back in May, after Zack Greinke's incredible start, I wrote an article on Greinke possibly "earning" the entire value of his offseason extension in 2009 alone. In that post, I argued that the Royals paid for 8 marginal wins (Wins Above Replacement) for 2009-12.

I wanted to wait an evaluate at the end of the season, but given how brutal the season has been for the Royals, I couldn't wait. According to Stat Corner, as of this morning after he one-hit the Mariners, Greinke is at 8.5 WAR for the season.

FanGraphs has him at "only" 7.5 WAR (using FIP scaled to RA), so maybe this is premature. But if you average the two WAR figures (and I'll revisit this myself at the end of the season using my own preferred WAR calculations), it's 8 on the nose.

So feel free to coast for the rest of the season and the next three, Zack (ahem).

I can't say "I told you so" so much, as I hedged by bets pretty carefully in the earlier piece. Oh, I thought Zack would continue to be outstanding, and probably deserving of the Cy Young, but I didn't want to predict a historic season six weeks into it. I did write:

Whether Greinke's contract is payed off in WAR this year or he has to wait until two starts into next season, his starts seem likely to be "can't miss" for the foreseeable future.

Okay, that was pretty obvious. But let's look beyond the AL Cy Young, which should be a foregone conclusion at this point. Joe Mauer, rightfully considered by most smart baseball fans to be the leading choice for 2009 American League MVP, is currently at 6.4 WAR. To be fair, FanGraphs doesn't yet include catcher defense in their WAR calculations, and I haven't re-run it for myself. But I'm not sure he's 11 runs above average.

In any case, forget the "Greinke for Cy Young" campaign. That's a no-brainer. And maybe it sets the sights a bit low for what is shaping up to be the best season by an AL pitcher since the heyday of Pedro Martinez.

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I agree 100%

I also think Lincecum should be the MVP in the NL. Unfortunately, neither of them are going to win it because they only play 35 games.

Smoltz.

by vivaelpujols on Aug 31, 2009 6:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I knew Lincecum was having a great, but I didn’r realize he was ahead of Pujols. His tRA=based WARaren’t as far ahead of everyone’s as Zack’s.

Utley has a good argument for NL MVP, too, though, at 7.3. If it’s that close, I don’t mind it going to the position player.

NO way they give it to a 2B, though.

Maybe I don’t follow the NL enough, but it seems like Utley doesn’t get nearly enough props given his consistent greatness. I guess white dudes only get respect if they suck.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 31, 2009 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

geez, I posted that one too quick

that’s why I shouldn’t get up before lunchtime

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 31, 2009 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand why people think that's not the same as a position player, but the pitcher has a far more

direct effect on a game than a single hitter and over the course of the season a pitcher has a little more batters faced than a batter has PAs (200 IP * 3 outs per inning = 600 outs + walks + hits). Fielding chances may even things out a bit, as pitchers rarely have to make tough plays (unless you are John Bale, then they are all tough). But I have to wonder, when was the last time that defense factored into an MVP choice? That seems to be decided by number of homers and RBIs mostly, and sometimes the team you play for.

I think that the MVP award has come to be known as an award for hitters, simply because the Cy Young is sort of the MVP award for pitchers. If the media made a bigger deal out of the Hank Aaron Award (best hitter in each league), then the MVP award may be seen as more of an all around award for everybody.

by AxDxMx on Sep 2, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs