Pitching Mechanics: Carlos Rosa
"Who the hell is Carlos Rosa?"
Good question. When scouring old posts from our archives, I randomly stumbled along this post. In it, NYRoyal said:
Since you poached devil_fingers from Royals Review, you really owe us a Carlos Rosa mechanics breakdown. It’s a moral imperative.
Interestingly enough (or not), I recalled that name from the article On That Stuff that I linked to a few days ago (which you read, of course) in the following paragraph:
Come to think of it, setting a minimum of 1,000 pitches for this analysis might have been a mistake. Given the precision and granularity of the data, this technique could be used to assess a pitcher's stuff given only a handful of pitchers. For example, I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.
Given that the writer mentioned GMDM, it was pretty obvious that he at least knew of Royals Review, and thus, I had to finally write this piece despite the fact that NYRoyal requested it in December 2008. Since the Indians and the Royals are both pathetic this year, and the fact that I really do like the writers over at RR, I feel that this is the perfect time to deliver on the "moral imperative" that NYRoyal thrust upon me.
As such, I changed my MLB.tv login to something without a "+" in it (their older systems are apparently too stupid to understand Gmail sorting symbols) and pulled up Retrosheet to find when Carlos Rosa pitched last. It turns out that it was in June 2008, which is quite a bit farther back than I had anticipated. Fortunately, MLB.tv ended up working out alright, and here's what I found...

Tempo: Rosa is at 18-19 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Very Good.
Arm Action: Rosa gets his arm up early using a pretty solid arm swing that goes down, back, and up. He doesn't excessively reverse rotate his shoulders towards home plate. I'm liking this guy more and more... Very Good.
Ball Release: Rosa tilts his trunk to get a downwards plane release on his pitches and does a good job of pointing the gloveside shoulder into the target. I can't tell if he pronates the releases of his pitches, but it looks like he throws a slider, so I doubt it. Still, not bad! Above Average.
Followthrough: I don't particularly like his followthrough phase, as he lets the glove arm hang down and it causes incomplete shoulder rotation through release, but it's definitely not terrible. I'd grade it as Below Average.
So I figured Carlos Rosa must not be having a great year in Omaha or something, but it actually turns out that he's doing rather well! Sure, his ERA leaves something to be desired, but a 10.1 k/9 isn't exactly something you find on trees.
Why is this guy not in the majors for a team that is going nowhere?
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16 comments
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Comments
Gotta see what Dusty Hughes has to offer
I’m just shocked they didn’t have Disco Hayes called up before Rosa. If a pitcher talks about sabermetrics and has a blog, he’s gotta be awesome, right?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
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by devil_fingers on Sep 10, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
In 3.1 IP he's been as valuable as Yuniesky Betancourt has over the last three seasons combined.
This guy should be very exciting to Royals fans.
His stuff was mentioned here as well.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Sep 10, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Shoulder surgery
I just found out that Carlos Rosa had pitching shoulder surgery, but no specifics on what was repaired. This doesn’t surprise me.
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by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2009 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Addendum
He is currently pitching at the moment with no problem, so it still doesn’t answer why GMDM doesn’t have him up.
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by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's one answer for any puzzling move made by the Royals
just guess what it is
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 10, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allow me to correct myself...
…there is no adequate answer to my question.
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by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
surgery
What doesn’t surprise you? That he had shoulder surgery? Or that there are no specifics on what was repaired? I ask because I see nothing and you mention nothing in your analysis that would lead us to expect shoulder issues. So I’m guessing that you’re not surprised that the specifics of the procedure don’t exist, but I’m just wondering.
by Lou Brown on Sep 10, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surgery is not surprising.
Check the followthrough notes:
Followthrough: I don’t particularly like his followthrough phase, as he lets the glove arm hang down and it causes incomplete shoulder rotation through release, but it’s definitely not terrible. I’d grade it as Below Average.
Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify
It is not surprising that he had surgery on his shoulder due to his poor followthrough phase. I guess it’s also not surprising that we don’t know the specifics, because Carlos Rosa is hardly a household name.
I would have been surprised to hear that he had elbow reconstruction surgery before shoulder surgery.
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http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rosa is intriguing
He was a starter and now they turned him to reliever as they are afraid about his arm holding up. This was the first full season in the pen for him so that may be part of the answer to why he wasn’t up earlier. However, with John Fail and the Professor in the pen, he must be blocked….
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
by 306008 on Sep 10, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ray Durham? Wow
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
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GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Sep 10, 2009 10:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for coming through on the Rosa analysis
This kid is a very good pitching prospect. Given his injury history, one could argue that he’s too much of an injury risk to be a starter. But his stuff and control are damned good. I may just be a homer, but he’s got future dominant closer written all over him. Of course many prospects look like that in the minors and never pan out in the majors.
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by NYRoyal on Sep 10, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is he not in the majors?
I have no idea why he wasn’t in the majors before the Sept. call-up. I guess it’s because he didn’t have a good ERA. That’s about the level of statistical analysis that the Royals organization is up to.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Sep 10, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it drives me nuts
that seemingly every ST (or at least this last one), Bob McClure (the KC pitching coach, for the uninitiated) raves about Rosa, and then nothing happens.
Maybe McClure’s “inability” to help Juan Cruz in general or Hochevar with tipping pitches is just his silent protest against Rosa being ignored (until tonight).
/grasping at straws
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 10, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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