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This guy used to be John Smoltz. This just in- he still is.(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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With few exceptions, there are two reasons that most professional athletes hang up the spikes and retire: Declining skills and injury. In June of 2008, John Smoltz, then 41 years old, went under the knife and it appeared likely that one of these outcomes had found him in the same way as it had many others. The surgery was performed by Dr. James Andrews, who found damage to the joint capsule and the glenoid labrum. The torn labrum was famously (and somewhat hyperbolically) described by WIll Carroll as such a debilitating injury that, "if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed."

Smoltz beat the odds, and rather than a SLAP or other full-thickness labrum tear, his labrum was only frayed. The surgery was performed arthroscopically, using a scope and tools inserted through small incisions and guided by a video monitor. Dr. Andrews trimmed away damaged connective tissue in order improve the healing potential of the healthy tissue and reduce the painful inflammation Smoltz had been experiencing. His season was over, and his offseason would be dedicated to rest and rehabilitation. The Braves offered him $2M, but he declined and accepted a deal from the Red Sox worth $5.5M plus incentives. This was a gamble with long odds considering Smoltz's age, but with his reputation as indifferent to pitching through pain it was a better bet than Mark Prior or, fatefully, Paul Byrd.

His recovery progressed over the offseason and well into 2009, and his first start for the Sox was on June 25 against the Washington Nationals. He was less than sharp.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

He took the loss, giving up 5 ER in 5.0 IP, but he and his manager were willing to appreciate the positive. He had struck out five, allowed no home runs, and walked only one. He had thrown over 90 pitches with no discomfort.

For several more starts these mediocre results persisted, however, and after a brutal loss to the Yankees on August 6th, his ERA stood at 8.33. To some, it appeared that declining skills had caught up with Smoltz and that his career was once again in jeopardy. He was designated for assignment, but several writers puzzled at the move, considering his defensible peripheral stats (33/9 K/BB, 4.92 FIP), and the fact that the heir to his rotation spot was Paul Byrd. On the other hand, the incentives in his contract were earning him $35,000 per day, and a half-million dollar bonus was due to kick in on Oct. 4. The Cardinals courted Smoltz eagerly, and fifteen days after his start against the Yankees, he shut the Padres offense down. Five days later, he was slated for a rematch with the Nationals.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

His command appeared to be considerably sharper. Since that start, his location appears to be the main factor in the dramatic reduction in HR/9, and his K/BB rate remains above-average.

So what about that shoulder? He skipped a start on September 15th with shoulder tendinitis, and his season innings total will just break 100 between the majors and minors in 2009. It's utterly remarkable that Smoltz has even come back to pitch this well, but its obvious that his skills are still intact and he is an above average pitcher in a league where Jeff Suppan is earning $12.5 million dollars per year. It's almost a certainty that Smoltz will seek a new contract in the offseason, and he's only a year and change removed from a 2007 season in which he threw over 200 innings and was a Cy-Young candidate. Only around 50% of pitchers return to the same or higher levels of competition after debridement of similar injuries, and a 42-year-old seems an unlikely candidate to beat the odds (again). Next year, he's probably going to challenge this season's innings-total with a shot at 150 IP, and he could be worth more than $10-15M (2-3 WAR) in that time, but any team would be insane to pay in advance on such odds. His deal for next season will probably look similar to this one, with bonuses based on IP totals rather than active days on the roster.