Driveline Mechanics

2008 Gold Gloves: Designated Hitter

2009-01-06T20:38:01Z

What is the job of the major league position player when he comes up to bat? Simply put -- to create runs.

What is the job of the major league position player when he is fielding? Simply put -- to prevent runs.

But what about those characters whoo, since the American League's adoption of Rule 6.10 in 1973, are labeled "designated hitter?" The obvious presupposition would be that they have no job when his team is not hitting. However, I will argue, in fact, that his job is also to prevent runs. In fact, there are some players, not only in the American League, but in the National League as well, who, in fact, would have prevented more runs by being a designated hitter than by playing in the field. While the Gold Glove not officially awarded to Designated Hitters, I believe it should be -- thus, this award is a counterfactual award. So who are the (counterfactual) Gold Glove winners at DH for 2008?

Even among the statiest of statheads, it is acknowledged that there isn't yet one "perfect stat" for judging relative player value, or even simply for judging a player's offensive value.

Still, it would be nice to get a total picture of what a position player contributes, wouldn't it? Given the advances in publicly-available defensive stats, it seems more possible than ever to look at a player's hitting contribution in runs during a season (whether by EqR, bRAA, or some other system) and add/subtract your favorite defensive metric, whether it is Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs above average, Hardball Times' RZR/OOZ system, or systems like Dewan's or UZR.

[Naturally, I waited so long to finally publish this that something has come out for public consumption -- Fangraphs, due to the generosity of MGL, has started publishing not only a version of UZR based on data from Baseball Info Solutions rather than the Stats, Inc. In some circles, they are distinguished by calling them bUZR and sUZR, respectively. With the addition of year-by-year wOBA-based offensive linear weights above average, Fangraphs took the next logical step and added a total value stat in terms of Wins Above Replacement. I'll come back to this.]

So, it can be done, but not in a simple one-shot for the amateur baseball "fanalyst" such as myself. However, through a post on RBI for Fielders by Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Box Score (subsequently linked in my award-winning 'RBI for Fielders and the 2008 Royals'), I discovered Justin Inaz's utterly cool Total Value Spreadsheet (this was months before Fangraphs started publishing their own WAR values. Since then, I have discovered some other home-brewed Total Value stats, although Justin's is still my favorite).

You can check Justin's stuff out for yourself -- on his blog he has a series of entries that explains just how he came up with the pitching, defensive, and offensive run values for each. It's quite sophisticated, from my perspective. On defense, he's taken (pre bUZR-era) data from both BIS and STATS, INC converted it to +/- plays and then runs (he also did this for 2007 MLB fielding). He also prorated positional adjustments by innings per position played. Great stuff for the lazy man! This is great stuff, quite impressive (from my perspective) and has been used by the Hardball Times their discussion of the 2008 cyber-MVPs as well as the basis for Sky Kalkman's series of position-by-position player value review at Beyond the Box Score. Again, for something like this to be done by (as far as I know) a layperson who makes it openly accessible to all is something very valuable and impressive. It probably isn't perfect* (he runs through all of his methodologies in this series of posts on his blog), but it's free, I like it, and it's useful for my purposes.

What were those purposes? Well, remember, I was going to give Gold Gloves to the best DHs in both leagues (yeah, I know about the National League, just give me a minute). But first, I would like to offer up a somewhat random list of position player total run values (above replacement) from Justin's spreadsheet, without comment.

Albert Pujols 97.6

Chase Utley 76.2

Grady Sizemore 75.5

Alex Rodriguez 68.6

Mike Aviles 35.1

Derek Jeter 28.5

Justin Huber 4.1

Mark Teahen 0.4

Emil Brown -3.8

Jose Guillen -6.7

Ross Gload -12.3

Tony F. Pena -16.6

But what does this all have to do with the defensive value of DH?

It is often asked whether or not a player should be a DH, or if he hits well enough to justify being played at DH. This is understandable, given the name of the position. However, as pointed out above, run creation is only half of the job of any given position player. On defense the player is supposed to prevent runs.

But how would a designated hitter prevent runs? How can we judge which designated hitter prevents the most runs?

Originally, I was going to go into a big digression on positional adjustments here, but given the extensive posts along the same lines on Fangraphs based on Tom Tango's adjustments (Rob Neyer even mentioned it on ESPN.com), I can keep it relatively short (always a warning, coming from me, you'll learn).

Pretty much every semi-informed fan realizes, on some level, that all offense from position players is not created equal. In our era, a first baseman with an OPS of .800 is considered below average, while a catcher with an .800 OPS would be considered far above average. Baseball Prospectus's uses this basic fact as the basis for its positionally-adjusted offensive statistic VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).

However, this thinking also works for defense. For example, take two players generally considered to be poor defenders at their position: Derek Jeter as shortstop and Adam Dunn and left field. Just as they are both good hitters for their position, they are, um, "below average," shall we say, defensively. But still, the bad (or good) defense at SS, all other thing being equal, still makes for a more "more valuble" overall player than the equivalent numbers of runs above or below average of defense at LF.

That's a bit of a confusing way to put it. A run given up on a botched easy grounder is as bad a run lost because a shallow fly drops due to the outfielders lack of range. What I mean is that the player with, say, -5 defensive talent at SS is more valuble than the player with -5 defensive talent at LF (assuming equal offense -- we aren't talking about Dunn and Jeter in particular any more). But the issue is that the pool of players who can player -5 SS is much smaller than the pool of players who can player -5 LF. Moreover, research and common sense tells us that a player who can player at a certain level at SS is usually able to play at a higher level at positions further across the defensive spectrum -- 2B, 3B, LF, 1B, and so on. I won't go further into how this is established. Dave Cameron did an excellent series on this not long ago at Fangraphs building on the excellent work of Tom Tango.

This is the well-known defensive spectrum. How does this work itself out in run values? Justin works this out in detail in his discussion of positional adjustments. I won't get into it here. Justin uses the Tango's adjustments (which Justin prorates by innings played per position) for runs over the full season:

+12.5 C
+7.5 SS
+2.5 2B/3B/CF
-7.5 LF/RF
-12.5 1B
-17.5 DH

Seriously, though, tell me what this has to do with this dumb award you invented

What we have above are the values of a player over a full season (or whatever benchmark you want to use -- for this article, I will use 150 games, as does Fangraphs). So how does this effect how we look at "who would save more runs as a DH than in the field?"

Usually, of course, the usual question is "does this player's bat play at DH?" And that's a good point. Over the 150 games we will take as our benchmark, can he produce 17.5* runs above average?

* One thing worth noting is that the DH adjustment is "really" -22.5, but 5 runs are given back to account for the difficulty of hitting of off the bench for final value of -17.5. This will come into play in a bit.

However, what about the fielding perspective... Leaving offense aside, let's go back to our mythical SS and LF who are both league average hitters. Of course, we'll say that the SS is a better player because SS's have a lesser offensive expectation. And, ideally, we'd take both offense and defense into account... but let's just look at it from a fielding perspective. If the SS is -15 runs/150, that's bad, but still, his fielding stat + his position adjustment is -7.5 -- or the equivalent of an average fielding left fielder. But if the LF is -15 runs, well, his field+position adjustment is -22.5, or the same as he might be expected to hit if he was a guy who couldn't adjust to hitting off the bench (see the note above)...

And so that leads us, finally, to the point of this project I started and left aside, months ago:

Which players would have saved the teams the most runs, overall, including what position they played and their defensive "skills," if they would have (or, in the case of the NL, if they had been allowed to, hence the counterfactual nature of this award) just DH?

The formula is actually pretty simple -- if the players defensive runs above or (in the case of these players) below + their defensive adjustment is greater than or equal to the DH penalty, then they would have been better off DHing -- they would have saved the most runs. And the player who is the "most" over the DH margin in each league should win the Gold Glove for DH.

When I first started this, I just used -17.5 as the DH penalty, as the 5 run/150 bonus for hitting off the bench comes in. However, given that most of these players aren't DHing much now, I thought that would be unfair. So the margin is 22.5.

Using Justin's spreadsheet, which already prorates positional adjustments (the difference from how I do it is there, but isn't that marginal, and doesn't matter since the ranking {which will stay the same} is the key to giving the award) and gives the defense run above/below average, it was easy. Well, it would have been easier when I started if I had better data-handling skills at that point. Simply put, I manually went through (yeah, it was a while back) Justin's spreadsheet and put the players with bad defense into my own spreadsheet, then added in the positional adjustments, and prorated for 150 games. That isn't enough -- then I "added" in the 22.5 DH adjustment. If the score is positive, then, well, despite sometimes terrible defense, one can say they still "helped" their team more (leaving aside issues of who else on the team could hit or field better in some combination) by playing the field than by DHing. However, if they still score negative -- in other words, if their fielding + position is lower than -22.5, well, then they would have saved their team more runs by simply sitting out.

Finally, the Rankings

However, by the time I got my stuff together and then got this gig, Fangraphs started posting bUZR. So I decided that I would stick with my original plan, to use Justin's stats (since I love good home-brewed stuff), and then generate the positional adjustments, and use bUZR, add it together, and prorate it myself (a big pain in the butt for players with multiple positions). Yeah, it took longer than I thought. But by picking through some stuff, I figured I could then "average" the GGDH scores (Gold Glove Designated Hitter Field+Position Adjustment + 22.5) to get our winners. Sort of like the BCS computer and the polls -- two systems combined for one ranking. And everyone likes the BCS system, right?

Anyway... it was more difficult than I thought. Without going into the details, when I did the original sheet with just Justin's stuff. I did most of it by manual entry from Justin's Google Spreadsheet into Excel... so there was some picking and choosing. some of the rankings I came up with are pretty diverse -- most of that is because different defensive systems come up with pretty different results. I tried to take out players with relatively limited playing time, since the sample sizes would bias things too far one way or another.

Keep in mind that defensive stats should really only can be taken to indicate a player's "true talent" once there's a decent sample size over three years. Thus, this little exercise isn't much of a "true talent" evaluator, but a one-year award thing. Just because some player isn't on the list, don't take that to mean that he's a good defender. He may have just had a lucky year. And, indeed, you have to be really bad to be a -15/150 corner outfielder, or a -10/150 first baseman.

Moreover, don't take this to indicate definitively what a team should or shouldn't do -- maybe they don't have any better fielders, or the ones they do have can't hit. This is (mostly) in fun. And remember that while defense is still generally underrated, that my rankings are for the Gold Glove -- they have nothing to do with a player's offensive abilities. I'm sure Tony Pena has a better field+pos. than Pat Burrell. I'm still going to go out on a limb and say that Burrell is a wee bit better.

One final note: there are different methodologies for Justin's numbers and the stuff I took from Fangraphs' bUZR -- Justin's positional adjustments include time already spent at DH, whereas the Fangraph's stuff didn't adjust for that. I did a version of the stuff from Justin's numbers such that it "weeded out" the DH positional adjustments, but I ended up leaving it in because the numbers got even goofier, and also to reflect teams' recognition that a guy like Jason Kubel isn't exactly Willie Mays in the first place.

I have three worksheets on the spreadsheet. Things got "messy," so I hid most of the columns. I trust I've given enough information above so that my work can be reconstructed. The first tab is just an info sheet. The second sheet sheet is "JustGGDH" (Justin Gold Glove DH). The third sheet is the supplementary "bUZRGGDH" (bUZR Gold Glove DH). The fourth sheet is the big Kahuna -- the final, all-MLB rankings. Don't mind some of the players at the ends of the lists -- they are on there for various reasons that don't matter at the moment.

On each sheet, I've ranked starting "best" DHs (worst def.+pos. prorated for 150 games based on 2008 stats) of 2008. The GGDH/150 score (at this point, it's not much of a value stat or metric, but a "score") numbers in red indicate that the player is below the -22.5 Dh threshold. If the number is in yellow, this indicates they are between -22.5 and -17.5 -- in other words, the player probably should be DHing if they can handle it halfway decently. The numbers in white spaces in the GGDH collun mean the player is "safe." Keep in mind that being "2" or "3" here isn't that big of a compliment -- these players still bite on defense. We're talking the worst of the worst here -- or, if they were to DH, the best of the best.

JustGGDH (using Justin Inaz's numbers): Brad Hawpe and Bobby Abreu just had "great" years this year. Truly amazing. Abreu's been on the slide for a while, but this year was a special effort. Don't know if he'll be able to repeat it. Hawpe has been outstanding for a while. Jason Bay may not get the credit he deserves due to switching leaves, but a -9.73 JustGGDH doesn't lie, and heck, Manny Ramirez (with all the numbers added up) is only in the yellow zone with a 4.26! And you can definitely see why the Royals had to get Mike Jacobs -- look at the runs he'll save (if he DHs), although they already have two good "yellow zone" DH candidates in Jose Guillen and Ross Gload (no, that isn't a typo -- he's the man with the Gloaden Glove indeed). Oh, and nice work on the Delmon Young trade, Bill Smith. Shout out to Raul Ibanez for not making the "red zone." And hey, My "only worth half as much on the market" Pat Burrell didn't make either! Kudos to you, Ruben Amaro, on an outstanding off-season so far.

bUZRGGDH (using Fangraph's bUZR): not too many surprises here. Wow, as bad as Jason Kubel might have looked in Justin's rankings (yellow zone), prorate the bUZR for the innings he just played in the field and... WOW... stand aside, Bobby Abreu and Jonny Gomes (although I should probably have left Gomes out due to relatively sparse playing time). Everyone agrees -- Mike Jacobs looks like the Keith Hernandez of DHs. Pat Burrell somehow avoids the red zone.

and now, the moment you've all been waiting for...

Final Tally:

You are a witness to greatness. Your GGDH Red Zoners of 2008.

Player	JJGGDH	bUZRGGDH	Final Score
Brad Hawpe	-11.79	-32.5	-22.14
Jason Kubel	1.44	-26.8	-12.68
Bobby Abreu	-11.06	-10.9	-10.98
Mike Jacobs	-8.94	-7	-7.97
Jonny Gomes	6.72	-21.7	-7.49
Jason Bay	-9.73	-0.9	-5.31
Delmon Young	-0.65	-1.6	-1.12
Ryan Garko	6.01	-6.10	-0.04

Everyone agrees -- Brad Hawpe is (or would be) the MAN when it comes to preventing runs as a designated hitter . Great job, Brad. Hand down Gold Glove winner for the 2008 NL. Honorable mention to Mike Jacobs -- his defensive talents will surely shine now that he's in the AL. Another shrewd move by Dayton Moore. He must have know that Jose Guillen would just miss the "yellow zone" cut by 0.98 points. Adam Dunn just misses the red zone -- better luck next time.

But what about the AL? Ryan Garko and Jonny Gomes made late charges based on bUZR, but still, Jason Kubel's monster bUZR season is simply stunning. Yet, I can't help feel this is unfair to Bobby Abreu. He played way more games, and hardly even had the chance to DH. I'm going to give the veteran credit, and, after all, he may never have the chance to do this again, even with Raul Ibanez out of the AL...

Congratulations to Brad and Bobby, and to all the rest, good luck next year in your pursuit of this prestigious award!

Many thanks to Justin Inaz for not only letting me use his information for this nefarious purpose, but for answering my embarrassingly long, rambling emails about this. Sorry I took so much of your time, Justin! Thanks, though. Justin can't be held responsible for my silliness, of course. The GGDH is an award of my own imagination. devil_fingers and Driveline Mechanics cannot be held responsible for GMs making stupid decisions based on this award, although in many cases that might still be a better idea than what some GMs actually plan on doing.

Tom Tango - Consultant for the Seattle Mariners

2009-01-05T08:17:08Z

Tom Tango - Consultant for the Seattle Mariners

As an A's fan, I have only one thing to say about this:

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

This is the 12-year old Marshall-trained pitcher that is making the rounds about the Internet. You...

2009-01-04T10:21:52Z

This is the 12-year old Marshall-trained pitcher that is making the rounds about the Internet. You can see all of the pitches he throws in this video in high-speed (appears to be 210 FPS). Go to the video directly to see it in HD quality.

I'll let the viewers draw their own conclusions. The only thing I will say is that the release of the Maxline Pronation Curveball is nearly perfect.

Discussion: Internally Rotating the Shoulder

2009-01-04T10:02:47Z

SB Nation poster NoNameOnCard is a frequent contributor to this site and has published his own blog about biomechanical research as it pertains to baseball - TexasLeaguers.com. For those who think that I go on at length about biomechanical and anatomical concepts, you should check out his stuff!

He has an excellent article up right now that discusses the internal rotation of the shoulder and how it contributes to valgus stress on the elbow (the primary cause of UCL rupture). Dr. Marshall believes that UCL rupture occurs due to "forearm bounce," or when the pitching arm goes from zero acceleration to maximum acceleration with the forearm being "laid back" in a position of shoulder external rotation. An example of external shoulder rotation can be seen below:

As a slight digression, Paul Nyman (SETPRO) believes that shoulder external rotation is the cause of high pitched ball velocities. I disagree. It is the effect of high pitched ball velocities.

NoNameOnCard believes that by extending the pitching arm before internal rotation takes place that the triceps can maximally project the baseball towards home plate with higher velocities and reduce the risk of UCL-related injuries.

I'm not sure I agree. I emailed NoNameOnCard this blurb in hopes of stirring up some discussion:

I love the blog so far. However, I don't think that I draw the same conclusions that you do about internal rotation. Dr. Marshall's students experience significantly higher degrees of internal rotation about the shoulder than "elite" pitchers from ASMI, as documented in this study. This would indicate that Dr. Marshall's pitchers should be at much higher risk for UCL injuries than traditional pitchers. Do you think that Dr. Marshall's pitchers use of their triceps via pronation helps to protect against valgus stress?

As for your comments about the anterior deltoid needing to flex to maintain the full length of the forearm behind the shoulder to avoid "forearm bounce" (vertical pitching forearm laying back in external rotation), you are correct - their pitchers do not do this. However, Dr. Marshall does want them to do so. Bill Peterson of RPM Pitching has indicated that his son Patrick had serious injuries in the anterior portion of his shoulder - particularly the deltoid area - after years of training with Dr. Marshall. To me, using the anterior deltoid in this manner causes a position of hyperabduction and poses a serious risk of injury. It takes a genetically gifted individual to accelerate a baseball at meaningful velocities using this technique, and Patrick was one of the few that could. It directly contributed to anterior shoulder injury.

The flaw of "looping" that Dr. Marshall talks about (the bending of the pitching elbow) is not a flaw at all, IMO.

I need to review the videos of Dr. Marshall's students, because while it is true that the internal rotation of their shoulders is significantly higher than ASMI's "elite" group of pitchers, the lack of UCL-related injuries to pitchers in his group could be related to an extended pitching arm before internal rotation, if NoNameOnCard's theories are correct.

I've emailed Dr. Marshall about this issue as well, and I'll start pulling video to see what I can conclude.

I promise that less verbose articles will be published in the future and more pitcher analyses will go up. I'm just knee-deep in tons of research that I want to understand a bit better before I continue. Thanks for your understanding.

Quick News: Scapula Stuff, Schooling, Dr. Fleisig

2008-12-31T17:51:02Z

Scapula Stuff

In "Differences in Scapular Upward Rotation Between Baseball Pitchers and Position Players" (Laudner et. al. - link), it is confirmed that pitchers have significantly less scapular upward rotation than position players at 60 and 90 degrees of humeral elevation.

Your arms at rest are 0 degrees. Raising them parallel with your shoulders straight in front of you is 90 degrees.

At 120 degrees (hyperabduction), it is not statistically significant, but the trend does seem to hold water.

This is important because insufficient scapular upward rotation has been empirically linked with several shoulder disorders.

The question now is: Why does this happen?

In "The Role of the Scapula in Rehabilitation of Shoulder Injuries" (Voight, Thomson - link), Voight et. al. conclude that while "rotator cuff strengthening has been an obvious treatment for various pathologies," the scapula is the base of the rotator cuff and therefore the muscles that control it should be strengthened as well. Weakeness causes altered biomechanics of the glenohumeral joint, possibly leading to unnecessary stresses on the rotator cuff (particularly the subscapularis) and the anterior capsule.

Still, we have no real link between why scapular upwards rotation is decreased in healthy professional pitchers compared to position players of the same organization. Nevertheless, we can regain some of this upwards rotation by performing various types of PNF stretching, D2 patterns with SPRI bands, tons of different types of rows (Eric Cressey of Cressey Performance loves these exercises for pitchers), and serratus anterior punches with SPRI bands.

Altered push-ups with chains or blast straps would be a great way to work similar muscles, especially if you focused on retracting the scapula at the top of the exercise.

Schooling

After careful consideration, I have decided to go back to school and finish my undergraduate coursework. Previous to dropping out of a full-tuition scholarship at a quality private university in the Midwest (very smart, I know), I was studying Economics and Entrepreneurship - two fields of study that I still enjoy reading about today. However, since my plan in life is to work around baseball (and sports medicine/training overall), I'll be taking some general coursework at the local junior college to get my prerequisites out of the way (sadly enough I have 90+ semester credits finished but nearly none in the hard sciences) before applying for admission to a local college to study Exercise Science. After graduation, I will take the ATC and CSCS exams for certification and attend graduate school to earn a Master's degree in Kinesiology. Though I can't really see myself attaining a Ph. D., I suppose it is entirely possible that I will continue on.

Biomechanics Lab

I'm happy to report that the high-speed camera works wonderfully - if there's enough light. I took it to the batting cage to mess around with, and unfortunately there's not much to share due to the poor lighting conditions. However, I managed to take some great footage of Matrix-style choreographed fights at work last night, and that turned out wonderfully.

Dr. Glenn Fleisig of ASMI (hazel's hero, if I recall correctly) was good enough to speak with me on the phone about planning out a biomechanics lab in the Pacific Northwest. He was happy to hear that I planned to study Exercise Science and that I was interested in opening up a biomechanics lab up here to do similar studies on pitchers and hitters. He said that he had a few people interested around the country in opening up "satellite" offices and that he would put me in touch with said people in about a month, after the Injuries in Baseball Conference in Houston.

Dr. Fleisig invited me to come down to Birmingham for a few days to understand the general layout of the facility and to help me get an idea of the cost and planning it would require to build such a lab myself. I look forward to visiting him sometime in 2009 to make this happen (and to think I have yet to visit Bill Peterson of RPM Pitching in Colorado).

The goal of Driveline Mechanics was to establish a baseline of what I thought I knew and see if it panned out, and it turns out that many of you are interested in similar pursuits! There exists a significant body of work out there that I am delving into that suggests that scapular loading below the acromial line can be very beneficial, and as such I am thinking about changing my mind on this very subject (though I never really cared about people passively "loading the scapula," only people who forcibly took it behind the acromial line and especially in a hyperabducted state). I hope that you never stop questioning both what I write and what you read, because the truth is that none of us have all the answers. One day, we may very well have them - but it does us no good to simply know what we should do; we must figure out how to relate them to the youth baseball players who will grow up to be professional pitchers so they can pitch with less injury concerns.

This Time Around, Giants Play It Smart on Free Agent Pitching Market

2008-12-28T15:53:32Z

Wading into the free agent pitching waters is just about the most treacherous activity that a team can undertake. There are certainly some bargains to be had, but the history of lengthy, exorbitantly-priced contracts for the most coveted arms on the market is mixed at best.

By definition, a free agent has accumulated at least six years of service time at the major league level, meaning that his days of making less than his fair market value are over. Add in the injury and attrition rates for pitchers and the uncertainty of projecting player performance more than a few years out, and you have a recipe for some expensive mistakes.

To get an idea of the return on investment that clubs have been getting from free agent hurlers, let's take a look at the pitchers who received multi-year deals during the 2006/2007 offseason and how their level of performance stacks up to their salary.

To do this, we can calculate a pitcher's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and then convert that to a salary figure. For the purposes of this article, I'm going to utilize the scale used at FanGraphs: one free agent WAR was valued at $4.1M in 2007 and 4.5M in 2008. Salary information was obtained either from MLB.com or Cot's Baseball Contracts. The player's real salary earned will be called "actual salary" while the player's salary based on their performance will be called "earned salary." For Japanese players, I have decided to pro-rate the posting fees. For instance, Boston paid about $51.11M to acquire the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka and sign him for six years. I will assign an additional $8.52M per year on top of Matsuzaka's salary (51.11 divided by 6).

2006/2007

Miguel Batista: 3 years, $25 million

2007 actual salary: $5.5M

2007 WAR: 1.69 (4.1M per win) = $6.93M earned

2008 actual salary: $9M

2008 WAR: -0.93 WAR (4.5M per win) = -$4.19M earned

TOTAL: $14.5M actual salary, $2.74M earned salary, -$11.76M

Adam Eaton: 3 years, $24.5 million

2007 actual salary: $6.9M

2007 WAR: -1.01 WAR (4.1M per win) = -$4.14M earned

2008 actual salary: $7.64M

2008 WAR: 0.25 WAR (4.5M per win) = $1.13M earned

TOTAL: $14.54 actual salary, -$3.01M earned, -$17.55M

Kei Igawa: 5 years, $20 million

2007 actual salary: $4M

2007 WAR: -0.65 WAR (4.1M per win) = -$2.67M earned

2008 actual salary: $4M

2008 WAR: 0.1 WAR (4.5M per win) $0.45M earned

PLUS $5.2M post fee X 2 = $10.4M

TOTAL: $8M actual salary (+10.4M post) = $18.4M, -$2.22 earned salary, -$20.62M

Ted Lilly: 4 years, $40 million

2007 actual salary: $5M

2007 WAR: 2.56 WAR (4.1M per win) = $10.5M earned

2008 actual salary: $7M

2008 WAR: 1.98 WAR (4.5M per win) = $8.91M earned

TOTAL: $12M actual salary, $19.41 earned salary, +$7.41M

Jason Marquis: 3 years, $21 million

2007 actual salary: $4.75M

2007 WAR: 0.69 WAR (4.1M per win) = $2.83M earned

2008 actual salary: $6.38M

2008 WAR: 1.47 WAR (4.5M per win) = $6.62M earned

TOTAL: $11.13M actual salary, $9.45M earned, -$1.68M

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6 years, $52M

2007 actual salary: $6M

2007 WAR: 2.39 WAR (4.1M per win) = $9.8M earned

2008 actual salary: $8M

2008 WAR: 2.54 WAR (4.5M per win) = $11.43M earned

PLUS $8.52M post X 2 = $17.04M

TOTAL: $14M actual salary (+17.04M post) = $31.04M, $21.23M earned, -$9.81M

Gil Meche: 5 years, $55M

2007 actual salary: $7M

2007 WAR: 2.95 WAR (4.1M per win) = $12.1M earned

2008 actual salary: $11M

2008 WAR: 3.86 WAR (4.5M per win) = $17.37M earned

TOTAL: $18M actual salary, $29.47M earned, +11.47M

Jamie Moyer: 2 years, $11.5M

2007 actual salary: $6M

2007 WAR: 0.8 WAR (4.1M per win) = $3.2M earned

2008 actual salary: $5.5M (with innings-based incentives)

2008 WAR: 2.15 WAR (4.5M per win) = $9.68M earned

TOTAL: $11.5M actual salary, $12.88M earned, +1.38M

Vicente Padilla: 3 years, $33.75 million

2007 actual salary: $9M

2007 WAR: 0.32 WAR (4.1M per win) = $1.31M earned

2008 actual salary: $11M

2008 WAR: 0.67 WAR (4.5M per win) = $3.01M earned

TOTAL: $20M actual salary, $4.32M earned, -$15.68M

Jason Schmidt: 3 years, $47 million

2007 actual salary: $12.5M

2007 WAR: 0.06 WAR (4.1M per win) $246K earned

2008 actual salary: $12M

2008 WAR: DNP

TOTAL: $24.5M actual salary, $246K earned, -$24.254M

Jeff Suppan: 4 years, $42 million

2007 actual salary: $6M

2007 WAR: 1.96 WAR (4.1M per win) = $8.04M earned

2008 actual salary: $8M

2008 WAR: -0.3 WAR (4.5M per win) = -$1.35M earned

TOTAL: $14M actual salary, $6.69M earned, -$7.31M

Woody Williams: 2 years, $12.5 million

2007 actual salary: $6M

2007 WAR: -0.61 WAR (4.1M per win) = -$2.62M

2008 actual salary: $6.5M

2008 WAR: DNP

TOTAL: $12.5M actual salary, -$2.62M earned, -$15.12M

Barry Zito: 7 years, $126 million

2007 actual salary: $10M

2007 WAR: 1.05 WAR (4.1M per win) = $4.31M earned

2008 actual salary: $14.5M

2008 WAR: 1.26 WAR (4.5M per win) = $5.67M earned

TOTAL: $24.5M actual salary, $9.98M earned, -$14.52M

2006/2007 FA TOTALS: $226.1M spent thus far, $108.57M earned, - $117.53M

Average return on investment: 48% of fair market value (collectively, teams got less than half of their expected return on free agent starting pitchers signed to multi-year contracts during the 2006/2007 offseason: $108.57M earned/ $226.1M actually paid out)

The 2006/2007 offseason may have been a particularly poor crop ( it will only get worse once the back-loaded portion of some of these pacts kick in), and far fewer multi-year deals were handed out last offseason. Perhaps teams started to get the picture that dishing out huge dollar amounts to the Jeff Suppans and Vicente Padillas of the world is a pretty bad idea; those sorts of players constitute marginal upgrades relative to the additional cash that must be spent.

Plenty of teams got burned during the '06-'07 offseason, when money was handed out like water. But no team was scorched as badly as the San Francisco Giants, who dished out unfathomable amounts of cash to Barry Zito, despite his modest peripherals. While GM Brian Sabean and the Giants will have to live with the consequences of that colossal contract for the next five seasons, it does at least appear as though San Francisco's front office has learned its lesson.

Consider San Francisco's recent signing of Randy Johnson. Johnson is 45 years of age, but he remains one of the more effective starters in the National League. Though he no longer pumps mid-90's gas, The Big Unit still managed to punch out 8.46 batters per nine innings in 2008, with just 2.15 BB/9. His 3.76 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) ranked 16th among National League starters.

Randy Johnson

#51 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-10

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: L

Born: Sep 10, 1963

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Randy Johnson	11-10	30	30	2	0	0	0	184.0	184	92	80	24	44	173	3.91	1.24

In 2009, the Marcel projection system forecasts Johnson to toss 170 innings with a 4.11 FIP. That projection was made before Johnson, a flyball pitcher, shifted from Arizona's Chase Field to AT&T Park. Let's knock his FIP down to an even four. In 170 innings, Johnson would surrender about 75.6 runs (4 FIP/9 X170 IP). A replacement-level starter, with a FIP of 5.50, would surrender about 91.2 runs in 150 innings. We'll cap the replacement-level starter's innings at 150 on the assumption that such an ineffective pitcher would not be kept on the mound beyond that point. The additional 20-inning gap will be filled by a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.75 FIP. The replacement-level reliever would give up about 10.6 runs. So, combined, we have..

Randy Johnson: 75.6 runs allowed in 170 IP

Replacement-Level Starter: 91.2 runs allowed in 150 IP

RL reliever: 10.6 runs allowed in 20 IP

Overall, the replacement level starter and reliever would surrender 101.8 runs. Subtracting that number from Johnson's 75.6 runs allowed, we find that Johnson projects to be about 26.2 runs above replacement level. Using the concept that 10 runs equals a win, Johnson is valued at 2.62 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). You'll recall that one WAR was valued at about $4.5 million last offseason. There had been a rate of inflation from one season to the next of about 10% over the past few years, but that trend does not seem to be continuing thus far. Let's say there's a little more than 5% inflation from last offseason's WAR figure, making our new going rate for one WAR about $4.8M.

That would make Johnson's contribution worth about $12.6 million. The Giants managed to snag The Big Unit for 1 year at just $8 million, meaning the surplus value of the deal (the amount that Johnson's level of performance exceeds his actual salary) projects to be about $4.6 million.

Major league clubs (excluding the Yankees, who are basically on their own revenue curve) seem to have changed the way in which multi-year contracts are handed out to starters. A higher degree of caution is being used after the '06-'07 spending spree that left many with a financial hangover- according to MLB.com's free-agent tracker, only two starters who were true free agents were given multi-year contracts last winter (Hiroki Kuroda and Carlos Silva).

The Giants are certainly an example of this trend. After handing over Fort Knox to Zito, they made a much less expensive, lower-risk signing in Johnson. Granted, there are some inherent risks with a guy in his mid-40's with knee and back issues, but much of that risk is negated by the fact that he's only under contract for one season. San Francisco figures to get one of the better starters in the league for less than he's worth in 2009, with none of the gambling associated with a long-term commitment.

A Journalism student at Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, Fan Graphs and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David via email at golebie1029@duq.edu or judidave87@msn.com

News: Coaching

2008-12-28T09:27:59Z

A few people have emailed me about the broken Coaching link in the Pages section in the left sidebar. I have since fixed that problem, but both the Pitching and the Coaching pages should be updated with new and additional information that I've researched over the past year. For now, I think my readers are happy that I'm updating the blog with some regularity and I promise to get around to updating the pages in the near future!

As for coaching, readers have emailed me asking about my location and my availability to analyze hitting/pitching clips for a fee, so I will talk about this on the front page. The intention of this site (Driveline Mechanics) was not to tout my coaching services or analyst skills, but to publish a blog that analyzes MLB players and prospects from a different point of view - combining the performance analysis of sabermetrics with a scouting perspective as well to form player profiles. Still, this blog has attracted a fair amount of interest with regard to coaching services, and as such, I have begun work on a dedicated coaching site. This site will have free content with drills and strength and conditioning tips as well as a forum to post to, and it will have more information about my coaching availability.

Much of my background comes from a strength and conditioning background, which is how I got involved in safe and effective pitching mechanics (suffering elbow and shoulder pain myself certainly accelerated this journey). Most of what I have studied with regard to general biomechanics, strength and conditioning, and nutrition are not suitable for publication on this blog, but would be very useful for amateurs and professionals alike who are looking to improve their skills and sport-specific performance. These topics will be covered on my new coaching site.

A major coaching/analyst goal of mine in 2009 includes finding a batting cage facility to partner with to setup a complex biomechanical lab (with help from Dr. Fleisig's instructions) in Seattle, WA. It will include reports similar to what ASMI provides with traditional, high-speed, and infrared imagery available to hitters and pitchers at any level. This prospect of developing the first full-featured biomechanical lab to analyze baseball players in the Pacific Northwest is very exciting to me, and I hope to be able to share these facilities at reasonable costs with others in the area.

As always, if you have questions, please feel free to email me directly - kyle@drivelinemechanics.com, or post comments. I love feedback of all types, and I know the other authors appreciate it as well.

FanGraphs Adds Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

2008-12-27T10:24:20Z

FanGraphs Adds Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

There’s a new section in the batting player pages which does the job of calculating a player’s runs over replacement and wins over replacement.

Now that's awesome.

Quick Hit: Joe Mauer

2008-12-27T18:33:55Z

Joe Mauer

#7 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Apr 19, 1983

Joe Mauer is the definition of a "sweet swing." People point to him and love his work ethic, his amazing defensive skills, his high batting average, his great walk rate, and that beautifully simple stroke that laces line drives from gap to gap.

And why not? Take a look at his 2008 stats:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008 - Joe Mauer	146	536	98	176	31	4	9	85	84	50	1	1	.328	.413	.451

This type of production is simply unheard of from a catcher. Hell, it's hard to find a first baseman this good.

Now, his swing:

People have been saying for years that Mauer would eventually fill out and start hitting 30 home runs annually, which would make him the best player in the major leagues and it simply would not be close (assuming he continued to hit .300 with high walk rates). However, while Mauer still racks up the doubles and walks, he's not hitting too many over the fences.

A quick analysis of his hitting mechanics might tell us why...

Joe Mauer doesn't carry his weight into the frontside as well as a typical power hitter does, and he also has more extended arms than most power hitters would at the point of contact. Take a look at a slightly slowed down version of his swing:

Mauer is a "turner," one that turns from the middle and quickly delivers the bat into the hitting zone. There's nothing inherently wrong with this, since he still has a rotational base and a quick stroke, but he doesn't gain much Lead Arm Extension or create much stretch between his core muscles and his arms. I believe that these are the reasons that Mauer does not hit for significant home run power.

Now, I'm not saying that Mauer should change anything - certainly not. Joe Mauer is the Twins' most valuable player (disregard of all the nonsense about Morneau that you hear) and it is because OBP is life - especially from the catcher position.

The day that someone complains about a catcher putting up .400 on-base percentages and .440 slugging percentages every year needs to have their head examined.

Hitter Profile: Justin Smoak (Part Two)

2008-12-27T09:23:17Z

For those who missed it (or ignored the post due to so many comments), please check out Part One of our Hitter Profile on Justin Smoak. Teacherman makes a lot of interesting comments about Smoak's swing - he parallels it with Dr. Chris Yeager's work, which he believes does not produce the high-level MLB swing. Since I don't want to get too technical - this can be a featured story in the future - I will simply say that I disagree with the assertion that Dr. Chris Yeager's work does not mimic or produce the high-level MLB swing, and that I mostly believe in Dr. Yeager's ideas about hitting mechanics. Again, pages upon pages can be written about what the high-level MLB swing actually is, and it's something I plan on talking about in the future.

However, for now, we'll stick with our basic hitting breakdown using the four stages of the swing as Dr. Yeager talks about. This is the clip we'll be analyzing, since the end result was a HR and it represents Smoak's "best swing."

Part Two of our Hitter Profile on Justin Smoak continues after the break...

The four phases of the baseball swing are:

Back leg load
Back leg push
Front leg block
Front leg push

As you can see, they are pretty self-explanatory! Dr. Chris Yeager describes the high level swing as a series of straight-line pushes that you use to convert linear momentum into rotational momentum, resulting in a high-velocity swing that fully utilizes the stretch shortening cycle to produce maximum batspeed.

Step One: Back Leg Load

Smoak has a quiet back leg load - he doesn't have an exaggerated load into the backside like Derrek Lee does:

There's nothing wrong with what Derrek Lee is doing, or Justin Smoak for that matter - all that we care about is that there is "negative" movement that loads the back leg.

Smoak loads his back leg well and has the barrel of the bat pointing at the pitcher, both of which are good points. The longer we can maintain a vertical barrel (or one that is pointing towards the pitcher), the better, as this helps to create a shorter swing. The generally-accepted axiom in baseball is a "five frame swing" - a swing that goes from hand launch to contact in five frames or less when viewed on a 30 FPS video.

Step Two: Back Leg Push

Smoak has a low and traditional stride that is a straightline push into footblock. An example of a non-traditional stride would be Chipper Jones:

Again, there's nothing wrong with a non-traditional stride at all, as long as you land in a straight-line closed position. Even Johnny Damon, who sets up extremely open, ends up striding with his foot in a straight line landing pattern.

A common phrase used during the back leg push phase is "leave the hands behind" or "walk in front of the hands." The point of this cue is to gain Lead Arm Extension, which is critical to build the stretch shortening cycle between the core muscles and the arms. Dr. Yeager's method involves measuring the angle of the lead arm (for a RHB, their left arm; an LHB, their right arm). The closer to 180 degrees, the better. People also call this "scapular loading" or "shoulder loading" when the hands load straight back. I prefer to just call it Lead Arm Extension (LAE).

From eyeballing it (I need to figure out how to measure angles using software - any suggestions?), Smoak seems to have about 160-165 degrees of LAE, which isn't bad, but could be better.

Step Three: Front Leg Block

The front leg block phase occurs after the weight shift from the back to the front begins to translate linear momentum into rotational momentum. Here's a great picture (albeit after contact) of Alex Gordon showing a clean block of the front leg:

The front leg has a tendency to open slightly, so keeping it as perpendicular to the plate as possible is best. We want to block the momentum cleanly and efficiently to transfer it through a series of pushes against the ground - also known as Ground Reactionary Forces.

(Example: When you fall to the ground, why does it hurt? It doesn't hurt because you hit the ground - it hurts because the ground hits back. That is a perfect example of Ground Reactionary Forces.)

Smoak lands on a slightly flexed leg, which is good. Landing on a stiff leg will inhibit rotation and will also jar the hitter's head, moving his field of vision around and making it even tougher to hit a thrown baseball. After the front leg block phase, watch the clip to see how linear momentum is transferred into rotational momentum and how Smoak's head stays perfectly still. The linear portion of the swing has been completed, and now we are transferring the energy built up from the straightline pushes through the kinetic chain.

Smoak initiates the swing by opening the hips, which engages the stretch shortening cycle. (The advantages of gaining LAE should be obvious at this point!) The hips clear, pulling the handle around Smoak's body in a circular path (Jack Mankin of Batspeed.com was the first to publish this revelation), and finally his hands come through, taking us to the final step of the baseball swing...

Step Four: Front Leg Push

Notice how a few frames before the Front Leg Push step of this swing occurs that Smoak's hips are maximally cleared and that his shoulders are nearly square to the pitcher! The three short cues to the baseball swing can be summed up easily - Hips, Handle, Hands. The hips clear, the handle comes around the body, and only then do the hands deliver the barrel into the zone.

Also notice how this swing is not a "downward swing," nor is it "level" to the ground. Your Little League or High School coach that told you to "swing down to get up" or "swing level to the ground" was dead wrong. The swing path is initially downwards, yes, but it is level to the ball's flight, not the ground! This means that the end of the swing is going to be on an upwards plane, since the ball is delivered from a raised mound from an overhand throw. A swing plane that does not keep the barrel of the bat in the ball's flight path will ultimately be a failure, as there will only be one point of intersection between the bat's path and the ball's path. A rotational swing that keeps the barrel of the bat on the path of the ball's flight gives multiple points of contact and maximizes adjustability.

The frame that I chose to freeze Smoak's swing for the Front Leg Push tells us a ton about the high-level baseball swing. Note how Smoak's arms are bent and not extended in the "Power V" that baseball coaches often talk about; many misinformed coaches will talk about "getting extension" with your arms, as if you should hit the ball with extended arms. This is absolutely incorrect. The "Power V" is the effect of an efficient swing, not the cause. The frames after Smoak's swing show that his arms are pulled into an extended position after contact and NOT before.

Right before contact, the high-level baseball hitter will firm up the front leg - adding additional power to the swing through a final push against the ground - and will uncock the wrists to deliver the barrel of the bat into the ball.

Also notice how Smoak hits the ball just beyond his front foot - this is normal in most hitters. There exists this concept of "letting the ball get deep" and that hitting it deeper in the zone means the hitter has quicker batspeed. While the cue of letting the ball travel in the zone is a good one for most hitters, it is simply not what really happens in the high-level swing. Nearly all professionals make their strongest contact at or around their front foot, regardless of where the ball's flight ends up (pull, straightaway, or opposite field). Letting the ball travel deep is important to get the "feeling" of not lunging at pitches well out in front, but this typically happens when the hitter has a poor Front Leg Push phase, since their front leg is collapsed and not braced against the ground.

Overall, I really like Justin Smoak's swing, even if Teacherman doesn't. Time will tell if he can hit in the minors and in the big league level, and I'm betting that he'll be good for 20-25 home runs, plenty of doubles, and solid walk rates. I don't imagine he'll hit over .300, but I see his peak years being .290/.385/.550 with a typical line of .265/.345/.490 for Smoak. Basically, I think his best comp would be Lyle Overbay with a bit more power and the ability to hit switch.

(This post ended up being pretty long, so expect it to be regurgitated in a dedicated Hitting page on the left-side of the site in a few weeks.)

Pitch F/X Profile: Jon Lester

2008-12-24T01:58:13Z

Jon Lester

#31 / Pitcher / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 07, 1984

A World Series-clinching win. A successful battle against non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. A no-hitter. Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester has already compiled a career's worth of accomplishments, and he's only going on 25.

A second-round selection out of Tacoma, Washington in the 2002 amateur draft, Lester quickly established himself as one of the most promising arms in Boston's farm system. After a solid full-season debut as a 19 year-old at Low-A Augusta in 2003, (106 IP, 6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9), the sturdy lefty punched out over a batter per inning in the High-A Florida State League in 2004 and the AA Eastern League in 2005. His control needed refinement (as evidenced by his 4.8 BB/9 at AAA Pawtucket in 2006), but he made his Fenway debut in the summer of '06 and appeared poised to infuse the Red Sox rotation with a home-grown ace to complement trade acquisition Josh Beckett.

Something far more serious took precedent, however, as Lester was diagnosed with a rare form of a blood cancer in September of that season. While he would spend the better part of the 2007 campaign regaining strength, Lester tossed 63 innings for the Sox and capped off the year on the highest of notes, pitching 5 and 2/3 scoreless innings in the series-winning game against the Colorado Rockies.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Jon Lester	16-6	33	33	2	2	0	0	210.1	202	78	75	14	66	152	3.21	1.27

While his 2008 season got off to a rocky start (22/23 K/BB in April), Lester quickly righted the ship, culminating with a nine-strikeout, no-hit masterpiece against the Kansas City Royals on May 19th. Despite having pitched just 163 combined innings in 2007, Lester appeared to get stronger as the year progressed: from June onward, he posted a 103/30 K/BB ratio in 134.1 innings. So, Lester seems like he's making good on the lofty expectations bestowed upon him prior to his health problems. But how is he doing it? To find that out, let's take a look at Lester's Pitch F/X data.

The chart above shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Lester got on his pitches in 2008, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Lester's pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a right-handed hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has.

The 6-2, 190 pounder appears to possess a five-pitch mix: a fastball, cutter, curveball, changeup and slider.

However, it's inaccurate to call Lester a five-pitch hurler. Lester's heater, thrown at an average of 92.1 MPH, has a very wide range both in terms of horizontal and vertical movement. With 6.03 inches of tailing action in on lefties and 7.77 inches of vertical movement, Lester's fastball has the velocity of a four-seam fastball and the motion in on the hands of lefties that one might expect from a two-seamer.

Initially, this pattern confused me. But after doing a little research, I found out that what we're seeing on Lester's chart is actually the combination of a four-seam and one-seam fastball. That's right, one-seam. Lester throws an offshoot of a sinker, gripped in an unusual manner along just one seam of the baseball. While the Pitch F/X data did not discern between the two pitches in terms of classification, the chart shows two distinct clusters, with the four-seamers in the upper right hand of the graph and the one-seamers below them and showing more horizontal movement. Lester's use of the one-seamer may also explain a pretty big uptick in his groundball percentage. Lester induced a worm-burner 47.5% of the time in 2008, up from 40.6% in 2006 and 34.4% in 2007.

For the sake of accuracy, I decided to slice Lester's fastballs into two categories, using a cutoff of 5 inches of vertical movement to differentiate between the four-seamers and one-seamers (the average sinker has about 4.7 inches of vertical movement). It's admittedly arbitrary, but it's a way to better define Lester's two fastballs. Here's an updated, more comprehensive chart of Lester's pitches:

That's more like it. Now, we can see the difference between Lester's four-seamer and one-seamer.

Now that we have separated the fastballs, they look more like they should in terms of speed and movement. A four-seam fastball is thrown with the most direct application of force, meaning that backspin is imparted on the baseball. Consequently, four-seamers are thrown at a higher velocity, with more vertical movement and less horizontal break. This is the pitch that is sometimes called a "rising" fastball. While that's impossible and would defy the laws of gravity, the four-seamer "drops" less in relation to other pitches, giving it the illusion of rise. Lester's four-seamer was thrown at an average of 92.3 MPH, with 5.51 inches of tailing action in on lefties and 8.73 inches of vertical movement. He utilized the pitch 47.3% of the time, more often to southpaws than right-handers.

In contrast, the two-seamer (one-seamer in Lester's case) displays more side-to-side action, with sinking movement coming at the expense of some speed. Lester broke out his one-seamer 11% of the time in 2008. The 91.1 MPH hybrid sinker had 3.62 inches of vertical movement and generated plenty of running action in on the hands of southpaws (8.25 inches), higher than the 7.6 major league average.

Lester used his two fastballs a fair amount against right-handed batters (a combined 53.9% of the time), but he really delivered the heat versus fellow southpaws (72.4%). With the ability to change eye levels with his fastballs, Lester eviscerated lefties this past season. Left-handers turned into Tony Pena Jr. versus Jon, batting a feeble .217/.269/.302.

While classified as a curveball, Lester's 76.1 MPH breaker is a sweeping, slurvy pitch. Lester's curve broke away from lefties (in to righties) an average of -5.12 inches (remember, a negative horizontal number means the pitch is breaking in toward a righty), while also dropping -5.14 inches in the zone more than a pitch thrown without spin would. With nearly two more inches of "drop" than the average curve (-3.3) and a big speed differential in comparison to his fastballs, Lester's slurvy offering has the look of a dynamite pitch. He wasn't shy about breaking out the curve against hitters of either hand: lefties saw the pitch 15% of the time, with righties getting the hook on 16.8% of their total pitches.

If a guy with six different pitches can be said to have a bread-and-butter offering, then Lester's cutter fits that description. Thrown 20% of the time overall, the 88.6 MPH pitch bored in on the hands of righties (-1.1 inches). Right-handers saw the pitch about twice as often (22.8%) as southpaws (11.5%).

Let's put that into perspective for a moment. The pitcher's mound is 60 feet, 6 inches from home plate. Adjusting for the stride of the pitcher and the hitter having to make contact with the ball a little out in front, the distance between pitcher and hitter is roughly 53.5 feet. From that distance, Lester's 92.3 MPH four-seam fastball will arrive in .39520 seconds. His cutter will arrive in .41171 seconds. A right-handed batter has .0165 additional seconds to decipher whether a four-seam fastball is going to tail away from him or a cutter is going to jam him inside; the difference in horizontal movement between the pitches is 6.61 inches, well over half a foot. Ted Williams was fond of saying that hitting a baseball is the toughest feat in sports. It's pretty difficult to argue with The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived on that one.

Lester also tosses in an occasional changeup and slider, though neither offering figures prominently into his pitch selection. He tossed in an 83.4 MPH change just 3.7% of the time. The changeup sort of takes the middle ground between his four-seamer and one-seamer, tailing 8.46 inches away from righties and possessing 7.05 inches of vertical movement. The slider was incorporated even more rarely, on just 1.3% of Lester's total pitches. His slider seems like a pitch that could mess up the hitter's timing: thrown at an average speed of 83.1 MPH, the slider features -3.9 inches of horizontal movement and 0.24 inches of vertical break. In comparison to his curve, Lester's slide piece is thrown about 7 MPH faster, with less sweeping action and vertical drop. A batter looking for Lester's big curve could end up surprised by the slider.

Suffice it to say, Jon Lester is well-equipped to remain one of the better starters in the American League. With two different fastballs, a devastating cutter and a sweeping curve, Lester can locate his pitches to all four quadrants of the strike zone. If there is a concern with Jon, it's that his workload increased by a whopping 74 innings between 2007 and 2008. The consequences of that increase remain to be seen. But, if Lester remains healthy, don't be surprised if makes a serious run at the Cy Young Award in 2009.

AN's Take on the Teixiera Signing

2008-12-24T00:32:19Z

AN's Take on the Teixiera Signing

This is a great breakdown of the Mark Teixiera signing by notsellingjeans over at Athletics Nation. Here's an excerpt:

They've had an incredible off-season, and done some tremendous long-term planning. They've invested heavily in starting pitching partially because next year's starting pitching market is very poor - it's headlined by John Lackey (if he doesn't sign an extension), Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Duchscherer, probably none of whom the Yankees would want to invest in long-term. And they won't have to, because their 2010 rotation is set as long as Hughes can step in for Pettitte long-term.

Hitter Profile: Justin Smoak (Part One)

2008-12-23T21:49:16Z

Justin Smoak just might be the one that got away from Billy Beane. He fits the mold of the Moneyball-type player that the A's stereotypically want - defensively-challenged (can't play anywhere but 1b), hit for a decent average in college, slugged a ton of doubles and home runs, and walked a bunch. In fact, Smoak was drafted by the A's in the 16th round after he graduated high school (fun fact: he played with top Orioles prospect Matt Wieters in South Carolina), but was in touch with advisors who told him that Oakland wanted to take him with the 36th overall pick and sign him for $950,000. Smoak demanded "$1 million and nothing less" to sign but the A's stood firm at $950,000, refusing to give in.

Oh, Billy Beane, why have you forsaken him?

Smoak did nothing but mash for the South Carolina Gamecocks, batting .315/.434/.631 over 260 AB and launching 22 home runs and 16 doubles. He showed off plate discipline (iso-obp of .129 with a 54:40 bb/k ratio) and had decent to above-average hands and range at first base.

Smoak was projected to go in the top ten picks of 2008, but when Angel Villalona was moved to 1b by the Giants, they had an easy pick in Buster Posey. The Marlins went with Kyle Skipworth, the Reds liked Yonder Alonso better, the White Sox wanted a middle infield prospect (James Beckham), the Nationals took (and failed to sign) Aaron Crow, and the Astros inexplicably took Jason Castro. With the Rangers waiting at #11 and the Athletics at #12, there was no doubt that Billy and company were hoping to see Smoak fall to them. It was not to be - the Rangers swiped Smoak and the Athletics had to settle for Jemile Weeks, which many people considered a stretch (he will not hit for power, he is limited to second base, and he is not especially fast).

Smoak inked a minor-league contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus just 15 minutes before the MLB deadline. Regarding the signing, GM Jon Daniels said: "This is a day we would have liked to have seen happen two months ago. But we think 10 or 15 years from now that will be irrelevant."

Smoak only had 56 AB in 2008 in the Midwest League due to the negotiations, but batted .304/.355/.518 in his short-stint in the Texas Rangers farm system.

Here's what Smoak's swing looks like as a lefty (thanks to Baseball-Intellect for the video):

In Part Two of our analysis, we'll break down that swing and talk about what we like and what we don't like about Smoak's hitting mechanics.

EDIT: Here's another image provided by the folks at Hitting Illustrated:

Getting Inside the Baseball: Aaron Cook

2008-12-21T15:04:00Z

Aaron Cook

#28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 08, 1979

We know that Aaron Cook relies primarily on his sinker to get people out - a quick look at his PITCHf/x Player Card will prove it:

Type	Movement in x (in.)	Movement in z (in.)	Initial Speed (MPH)	Number Thrown	Percent	Versus RHB	Percent	Versus LHB	Percent
Fastball	-4.2	8.58	92.42	262	12.27	71	7.43	191	16.2
Sinker	-6.89	5.04	91.39	1521	71.24	711	74.37	810	68.7
Slider	1.13	2.73	84	352	16.49	174	18.2	178	15.1

We also know that most sinkerballers get their movement by using a two-seam grip and pronating through release. While bored at work and scouring the Internet, I ran across the following image that illustrates this concept beautifully:

Pretty cool, isn't it? You'll note that even though Aaron Cook has been on the disabled list shelf multiple times, none of it has anything to do with his elbow - nearly everything is related to his shoulder (pulmonary embolisms, blood clotting) or his sides (obliques). Though I haven't seen his pitching mechanics in slow motion video, I would be willing to bet that he has a problem with getting the arm up on time and exhibits forced scapular loading (and possibly hyperabduction - based on the blood clotting problems, which are quite serious).

Pitcher Profile: Jair Jurrjens - Part Two

2008-12-20T02:58:41Z

Jair Jurrjens

#49 / Pitcher / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 29, 1986

In Part One of our Pitcher Profile analysis of Jair Jurrjens, we talked about how uncommon it was to see a pitcher throw a changeup faster than his slider and also profiled the location of said off-speed pitch. We also discussed the concept of trading with the Braves (usually a bad idea) and Jurrjens' profile from a sabermetric viewpoint.

Today, we'll be analyzing his pitching mechanics using the same clip we saw in the previous post.

Read on!

Tempo: Jurrjens is 17-18 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Anything under 20 is great. Excellent.

Arm Action: I really like what I see here. Though Jurrjens has a bit of reverse rotation in his stride, it's not very much. I see no visible evidence of forced scapular loading, which is very good news. Additionally, Jurrjens uses a pendulum arm swing down, back, and up and his pitching arm gets nearly vertical when his shoulders begin to turn. This should limit the amount of stress placed on his elbow as a result. Very Good (borderline Excellent).

Ball Release: Let's take a look at the picture below, which is approximately at the point of release:

What I see here is very good - his glove arm is up near his shoulder with the palm facing inward. This is commonly referred to as "throwing against a firm front side." Excellent.

Followthrough: Initially I looked at the video and saw evidence of an active braking mechanism on his arm - meaning that he was pulling back with the pitching arm to slow the followthrough. This is very bad, as it can place extreme stress on both the anterior and posterior muscles of the shoulder. However, after carefully reviewing the source material again (thanks, VictorW), what I see is forceful rotation of the shoulders as he turns them nearly sideways to the target. In my opinion, this will help slow the arm down and take some of the load off the decelerator muscles in the shoulder and upper arm. Jurrjens gets a Very Good from me on this point.

There's a lot to like in Jurrjens' delivery, if you ask me - he works quickly, has a clean arm action, uses his glove side well, and has a solid followthrough phase. There's no wonder why the Braves' scouts are some of the best in the business, and Jurrjens is just one of many examples of how they managed to find hidden talent that was passed over by other organizations.

On a side note, I still can't believe that the Mike Hampton deal didn't work out for them. If you didn't know how favorable of terms John Schuerholz managed to negotiate, well, take a look here. Hampton's contract was 8 years/$121M, of which the following teams paid him salary:

(acquired by Atlanta 11/02 in trade with Colorado & Florida)

-Colorado to pay $49M ($20M signing bonus, $8M in 2001, $8.5M in 2002, $2M in 2003, $2M in 2004, $2.5M in 2005, and $6M for 2009 buyout, which was converted to a signing bonus 11/02, eliminating club option)
-Florida to pay $23.5M ($7M of 2003 salary, $8M in 2004, $8.5M in 2005
-Atlanta to pay $48.5M ($2M of 2003 salary, $2M in 2004, $1.5M in 2005, $13.5M in 2006, $14.5M in 2007, $15M in 2008)

The Braves paid just $48.5M of Hampton's contract for 5 years, meaning they got him at an AAV of $9.7M that was heavily backloaded, giving them the maximum time value of money in the deal as well. Hampton turned in two pretty good years in 2003 and 2004, posting FIPs of 4.08 and 4.32, but then only threw 69 innings of 3.96 FIP ball in 2005 and not coming back until 2008, when he pitched at near replacement level, throwing 78 innings resulting in a 4.94 FIP. I'm no contract wizard, but it's highly unlikely that the Braves ended up with the better end of this deal - regardless, we should judge contracts at the time they were signed and the variables known, and if you do that, this deal was a no-brainer.

It just goes to show you how dangerous trading with Frank Wren and John Schuerholz can be.

News: High-Speed Camera Acquired!

2008-12-19T17:25:24Z

As many readers know, I've been salivating over the prospect of purchasing a high-speed camera for about a year now. Initial searches turned up a bunch of professional Ethernet-connected solutions that would run about $6,000 - $8,000 for a used model that did 300 FPS and only in black and white. Eventually I found the Fastec Sportscam, which looked very promising - but cost $8,000 - $10,000 depending on the features you wanted.

Bleh.

Enter the consumer-priced Casio EX-F1 and EX-FH20, digital cameras that feature the ability to "burst shoot" up to 60 FPS and to capture high-speed video up to 1000 FPS! When I first saw the EX-F1 featured on Engadget, I knew that it was only a matter of time before I broke down and spent the $1,000 on one. After waiting a few months for it to come down in price, Casio released the EX-FH20, which did burst shooting up to 40 FPS and still had the high-speed video quality that I wanted - but at half the cost. Biding my time for about three months, I kept searching Google Shopping for the best deal, and yesterday I noticed that it dropped to $440 + tax with pickup available from Best Buy. I placed the order online (along with an 8 GB SDHC card) and picked it up last night, using it to film my friend shooting wadded-up dollar bills into tumbler glasses to test the awesomeness of 420 FPS (I didn't use 1000 FPS as the quality's not great).

The camera's everything I wanted it to be, and I look forward to taping pitchers during Spring Training to share with you all. It is simply amazing to see the level of detail at 420 FPS that you can't get at 30 or 60 FPS from standard video capture.

The Waiver Wire Blog

2008-12-17T19:47:50Z

The Waiver Wire Blog

The Waiver Wire is a blog that an acquaintance of mine runs; the focus of his site is to provide analysis for fantasy sports where daily transactions are the norm. Pretty cool stuff if you're into fantasy sports!

Three Things I Learned in Vegas

2008-12-17T19:43:09Z

Three Things I Learned in Vegas

Adam Guttridge is an ex-MLB intern for the Colorado Rockies who went to the 2008 MLB Winter Meetings to try and secure a job working in an MLB front office. He details his experiences in this post on The Hardball Times and talks about exactly who you're going up against.

Below is an excerpt:

1. Never take a single opportunity for granted.

It’s an immensely humbling experience to watch hundreds of grown young men with college degrees (and many prestigious ones, at that) hurdling over one another to get a resume submitted for a concession stand internship in a small town in Idaho that pays $450 a month. That’s no exaggeration; such a job posting was entirely typical and drew plenty of interest.

Fangraphs Player Search Plugin - IE and Firefox

2008-12-17T19:34:04Z

Fangraphs Player Search Plugin - IE and Firefox

Excellent plugin for IE (booooo) or Firefox (yaaay) that works for Fangraphs.com. Useful when you absolutely, positively, must know a hitter's BABIP so you can tell your friend that Ichiro is due to regress at some point in his life.

Pitcher Profile: Jair Jurrjens - Part One

2008-12-17T18:55:10Z

Jair Jurrjens

#49 / Pitcher / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 29, 1986

Jair Jurrjens was perhaps the "throw-in" during the October 2007 trade between Atlanta and Detroit that sent Gorkys Hernandez and Jurrjens to the Braves and Edgar Renteria to the Tigers. As most teams do, the Tigers immediately regretted the trade with the Braves front office as Edgar Renteria went on to post this stinker of a line:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008 - Edgar Renteria	138	503	69	136	22	2	10	55	37	64	6	3	.270	.317	.382

While Gorkys Hernandez didn't do very well in High-A Myrtle Beach (posting a .264/.348/.387 line over 406 AB), Jair Jurrjens performed well above expectations. Immediately slotted into the rotation, Jurrjens went on to post this line for the Atlanta Braves:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Jair Jurrjens	13-10	31	31	0	0	0	0	188.1	188	87	77	11	70	139	3.68	1.37

(Why anyone trades with the Braves is a mystery to me.)

Jurrjens was the real deal in 2008 - posting a 3.59 FIP and 4.02 xFIP, it would indicate that his true talent level is not too far out of line with what he did last year. Though he has a slightly high walk rate (3.3 per game), he minimized the damage due to a 0.52 HR/game rate. He got slightly lucky on flyballs staying in the park, as he posted a 7.9% HR/FB rate, which is 2% less than the average rate. It is true that not all pitchers have the same HR/FB rate since higher-quality pitchers can control this statistic to some degree, but in general rates that are large outliers for someone's career or very far away from 10% are likely to be anomalous. Jurrjens is a good bet to regress some, but Marcel predicts him to throw 157 IP with a 3.77 FIP - well above-average.

Though I'm not a Braves fan, I enjoy watching genius at work, and there's no doubt that the Atlanta front office has done an amazing job over the past 10 years. Their ability to accurately judge player talent keeps them competitive year in and year out, and their stretch of division titles is one of the most underrated achievements in team sports.

Josh Kalk's (dixieflatline) PITCHf/x Player Card for Jair Jurrjens indicates that he throws a fastball (92.5 MPH), slider (80.9 MPH), and change (84.4 MPH) as his primary pitches. This seems fairly normal for your standard fastball/slider right-handed starting pitcher, but it's not - look at the velocities. Most pitchers throw their changeup slower than their fastball and their slider, but Jurrjens throws his slider the slowest. Jurrjens' #1 comparable per the PITCHf/x Player Card is Johan Santana, which makes sense given the type of pitches they throw. Santana is well-known for throwing two sliders - a hard one and a slower one, yet even his slider average velocity is higher than his changeup velocity.

Anyway, it's no secret that I like changeups (like this particularly nasty one from Max Scherzer), and Jurrjens has a great one:

Nasty. Here's where he mainly locates it (look at the chart as if you were the catcher):

He actually likes it so much that he throws it to both RHB and LHB quite a bit:


Type	Movement in x (in.)	Movement in z (in.)	Initial Speed (MPH)	Number Thrown	Percent	Versus RHB	Percent	Versus LHB	Percent
Fastball	-6.75	9.24	92.49	1263	62.65	599	61.44	664	63.78
Slider	0.8	2.4	80.85	225	11.16	175	17.95	50	4.8
Change	-8.76	6.08	84.54	528	26.19	201	20.62	327	31.41

Though he uses it against LHB more often, he is not afraid to use it against righties. If I were him, I would do the same thing!

Part Two of our analysis will look at his pitching mechanics in depth and see how his long-term health looks.